For Jones to win he would have to weather upto 2 rounds of absolute hell from Aspinall and pray he's gassed by then. Aspinall is insanely fast, powerful and aggressive early on and will fight at a pace Jones won't be comfortable with. The threat of a knockout also, would make Jones hesitant to engage much.
If he survives, I can see Jones picking Aspinall apart as I think Tom does have glaring defensive deficiencies.