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A very reasonable and accurate take. I mostly agree. I think this is why Jones is very hesitant because it doesn’t do a lot for his legacy right now. If Tom loses it to Jones and then goes on a massive run in the next few years and is killing everybody, then it greatly adds to Jones Legacy. But right now I don’t think it does much of anything. If Tom loses, he’s just another guy that Jones beat.
The thing is, all these reasons for taking the fight and not taking are gonna be irrelevant once the all might dollar kicks in. Jon is gonna fight again, if Jon was going to retire he would have done it already. So Jon will fight again and it's gonna be against Aspinal. The UFC will offer a very generous pay day to the point where it over compensates in case Jon loses or any thoughts of not fighting. One loss late in his career will not affect his legacy much. He's the goat and he was the goat before he even went up to HW.
Jon is in prime position now to make huge money per fight, one pay day now is like 2-3 from a few years ago or even more. Jon will continue to fight cause the money is just too good.