International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V9

[cottagecheesefan]

Why would you bet on the absolute last area Ukraine is capable of taking back as the yardstick of success?

You do know that Russia controlled large areas of the donbas before the February invasion right?

If the purpose of an invasion is to take more land than you held prior why wouldn't a decrease in the total controlled area be more than enough?

If you had $8 and invested it only to have $7 at the end of your investment that's a loss.

the absolute last? Isn’t that literally what Russia took? The bottom line is when is it retaken. I am asking anyone to give a legit timeline. All I am getting is a word salad and 10-20 years. Lol

 

[Rholk]

before saying nah, do you have a better source than Ukrainian Pravda?

Before typing this reply, did you read the source ?
Check out Dana Spinant on Twitter.
Deputy chief spokeswoman and Director for Political Communication for @EU_Commission. https://twitter.com/DanaSpinant?s=20&t=nUu-shAjtrmu-K5jn_Nw1g
Or would you want a better source on the correctness of EU statements than the communication department of the EU?
I could try googling it for you.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Before typing this reply, did you read the source ?
Check out Dana Spinant on Twitter.
Deputy chief spokeswoman and Director for Political Communication for @EU_Commission. https://twitter.com/DanaSpinant?s=20&t=nUu-shAjtrmu-K5jn_Nw1g
Or would you want a better source on the correctness of EU statements than the communication department of the EU?
I could try googling it for you.

Ok what was the mistake in the speech?

Can you please cite the correct number of Ukraine soldier and civilians lost? I am sure they issued a correction with the real numbers

 

[SandisLL]

Before typing this reply, did you read the source ?
Check out Dana Spinant on Twitter.
Deputy chief spokeswoman and Director for Political Communication for @EU_Commission. https://twitter.com/DanaSpinant?s=20&t=nUu-shAjtrmu-K5jn_Nw1g
Or would you want a better source on the correctness of EU statements than the communication department of the EU?
I could try googling it for you.

Urzula really had agreed to gave them 35 000 000 LED bulbs?
If so it is cool....

A lot of ppl in Ukr are using old design USSR era type casual bulbs....they consume a lot electricity.

 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr]

You're failing to account for what happens when South Korea enter the war with all their world class Starcraft generals.

Im not sure how I didn't take that into consideration. The grandmasters of korean starcraft will inevitably be too much for low level Russians

 

[SandisLL]

Ok what was the mistake in the speech?

Can you please cite the correct number of Ukraine soldier and civilians lost? I am sure they issued a correction with the real numbers

O I get your real target here : to ensure posters here that for ukrainians better will be to surround and agree to be incorporated in Russia.

Later you will post the same about Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Austria, Azerbaijan etc...

 

[Rholk]

Ok what was the mistake in the speech?

what was the mistake,l? Can you please cite the correct number of Ukraine soldier and civilians lost?

The mistake was that she just threw a number out there to emphasize that Russia was evil.
Which was dumb and unnecessary.
I would have as little idea about the true casualties of this war as you.
You are ofcourse free to believe the number you wish.
The war should be pretty much over by now then.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

The mistake was that she just threw a number out there to emphasize that Russia was evil.
Which was dumb and unnecessary.
I would have as little idea about the true casualties of this war as you.
You are ofcourse free to believe the number you wish.
The war should be pretty much over by now then.

So you have absolutely no idea on the real number other than what the head of the EU said in a speech but then was retracted because of bad press? Just to clarify, can we clarify this?

other than ukraian prada? Can we at least clarify that at least, that your only source is Ukrainian prada?


Is it typical for leaders to throw out random, unconfirmed numbers? Are these the leaders we want for ww3?

lmao y’all retarded

 

[cottagecheesefan]

So the narrative has switched from, “anyone who says this will be prolonged with extensive casualties and spending for years and years” is a Russian bot

to “yea I expect this to drag out but in 20 years Russia will regret it!”


Lmfaooooooooo

never have I seen such morans

 

[Rholk]

So the narrative has switched from, “anyone who says this will be prolonged with extensive casualties and spending for years and years” is a Russian bot

to “yea I expect this to drag out but in 20 years Russia will regret it!”


Lmfaooooooooo

never have I seen such morans

So you have absolutely no idea on the real number other than what the head of the EU said in a speech but then was retracted because of bad press? Just to clarify, can we clarify this?

other than ukraian prada? Can we at least clarify that at least, that your only source is Ukrainian prada?


Is it typical for leaders to throw out random, unconfirmed numbers? Are these the leaders we want for ww3?

lmao y’all retarded

Try reading the source (hint: its within the article itself)
I can sense the frustration.

Spoiler

 

[Domitian]

That could all happen and Russia still kills a huge bulk of the Ukrainian manpower. As has been said before, quantity is a quality all it's own.

According to some interviews I've been seeing with Ukrainians on the front fighting, a lot of them are dying defending Bahmut. And the Russians are starting to fight better.

We have to take the media reports from our side with a grain of salt too.

Supposedly, Ukraine has about 150K men left. That's several times smaller than the rumored amount of Russians about to be mobilized. Even if they're poorly trained, that's a lot more manpower.

Keep in mind NATO and other countries can still supply Ukraine with weapons. They don't necessarily need a high troop count.

 

[SandisLL]

There are ~90% chances that Poland soon will approve budget project with ~4 % of GDP for military.....

 

[SandisLL]

The mobilisation potential in case of total mobilisation is considerably higher than these analytics might quess.

Usually calculated value is approx from 1/10 till some 1/12,5 ratio where number of inhabitants is divided vs 10 - 12,5....
Ofc there is assumed that part of mobilised will be used for essential services, to work for war efforts etc ...

 

[SandisLL]

What kind of stuff is total mobilisation?

It isn't just to summon guys and sent them to the frontline.
Governments might mobilize largest part of adults population and part of them might be ordered to do certain jobs in certain enterprises, establishments, companies.

From to dig trenches till to wash floors in hospitals or to work in power plants, ammunition and weapons factories, transport industry etc, etc, etc...

 

[Hog-train]

Keep in mind NATO and other countries can still supply Ukraine with weapons. They don't necessarily need a high troop count.

The bulk of the modern weapons will take 2 or 3 months from now to be on the battlefield. Russia could mobilize and launch a major offensive before that.

 

[Limbo Pete]

The bulk of the modern weapons will take 2 or 3 months from now to be on the battlefield. Russia could mobilize and launch a major offensive before that.

Which they for sure are going to do
Just gonna have to roll with it

 

[Rod1]

So the narrative has switched from, “anyone who says this will be prolonged with extensive casualties and spending for years and years” is a Russian bot

I think it was pretty clear from the start that the war would be costly, i don't think Russia has much steam left though, they have basically lost the capability for maneuver warfare and the intensity of their shelling has not recovered to pre-HIMARS level.

They however have found some limited success in Bakhmut Soledar with WW1 human wave tactics thanks to Wagner, but that seems to be more a cause of Ukrainians being unable to cope with such tactic fast enough,.

to “yea I expect this to drag out but in 20 years Russia will regret it!”


Lmfaooooooooo

never have I seen such morans

There is no chance in hell Russia can keep this up, they are already at WW1 level warfare while Ukraine is now getting advanced western tech, only way this drags on 20 years is if for some reason the West decides to cut all support.

 

[Rod1]

The bulk of the modern weapons will take 2 or 3 months from now to be on the battlefield. Russia could mobilize and launch a major offensive before that.

Russia any major Russian offensive will be WW1 level type offensive, like Iran in the 80s but worse.

That may lead to some gains but they will be minuscule and Ukraine will have plenty of time to set defensive lines behind every ground they lose.

 

[Hog-train]

Russia any major Russian offensive will be WW1 level type offensive, like Iran in the 80s but worse.

That may lead to some gains but they will be minuscule and Ukraine will have plenty of time to set defensive lines behind every ground they lose.

Don't know about that. 150,000 vs 500,000+ is a big difference. Plus, we're getting all our info from Western sources - they could be biased for political purposes as well.

 

[Cid]

the absolute last? Isn’t that literally what Russia took? The bottom line is when is it retaken. I am asking anyone to give a legit timeline. All I am getting is a word salad and 10-20 years. Lol

You seem a bit out of the loop so I'll fill you in.

Russia took Crimea 9 years ago. It was successfully taken by Russia with no fighting. That wasn't a war as much as it was a secession. Ukraine didn't contest it. It basically became part of Russia.

After that there was the War in Donbas. This was a "coup" from "ukranians" in the east with a whole bunch of Russian equipment suddenly appearing in the hands of "ukranians"

This was contested and eventually involved Russian troops due to the difficulty these "partisans" had in controlling the area. Fighting here stopped after establishment of the Minsk protocol. This land became "independent" and under control of the LPR and DPR. Though largely speaking most people concede these to be proxy states of Russia rather than genuine independent states.


Up until this point it's all clear wins for Russia. While there has been fighting between Russians and Ukranians there hasn't been a full scale war. Neither Ukraine nor Russia had fully committed and if it had ended here Russia is a clear winner.


Then 24th of Feb came round and Russia launched a weird, half assed full scale invasion. Basically they thought they could take Ukraine with around 1/5th of their troops in a "special military operation to demilitarize Ukraine" Thinking Ukraine would just roll over.

Only they found out this was not the case. Ukraine shut off its borders and mobilized the country. Its military personnel increased approximately 4 fold and this turned into a full scale war for Ukraine. Russia with it's first mover advantage took massive amounts of land while the west sent (by their standards) a bunch of pea shooters to Ukraine (MANPADS + ATGMS)

While Russia did take swathes of land here there wasn't a real clear winner in this situation as in all likelihood they took massive losses and in April publicly changed their strategy from "blitzkrieg" to artillery bombardment.

Although they didn't take massive amounts of territory after this change of strategy even the most ardent supporter of Ukraine would concede that Russia without doubt won this section of the war.

Then June/July came around and America decided that Ukraine had done enough to convince them that they were not the Afghan army and could reliably be given some decent weapons without them instantly falling into Russian hands. They sent a bunch of HIMARS artillery rocket systems and Ukraine hammered about 100 artillery supply depots to the pleasure of pyromaniacs around the world.

This is basically where it evened out and turned to Ukraines advantage. This about where Ukraine started seriously saying that Crimea is no longer off the table. Basically this area that they had given up was back on the table for capture or at the very least that is the threat. Russia being a bunch of dumbasses still tried to pretend that they weren't in a real war and a few months later lost about half the territory that they captured in their initial invasion in massive public losses. At this point Ukraine is winning and Russia can't really deny that.

So they mobilize.

That brings us to the weird situation where we are now. Winter has set in basically ending large scale advancements and Russia has sent enough troops not only to stop the large scale offensives but to go back to taking small amounts of territory. The exact amount they've mobilized is a huge question mark and another large wave is constantly on the rumor mill. We don't know really.

On the Ukranian side there's a lot of allusions to recent aid packages (which have been massive compared to previous packages) containing GLSDBs without specifically saying they're sending GLSDBs. To understand the significance of this weapon it has twice the range of the HIMARS rockets and basically brings every target on Ukraines mainland within range of the Ukrainian artillery. In an artillery war this is massive.



All of this (2014-now) is called the Russo-Ukranian war, but when people say the war between Ukraine and Russia they're talking about Feb '22-now because that's when it become a full scale war.

All kinda confusing with a bunch of different stages.

Whether Crimea is really even a legitimate goal of Ukraine is conjecture. The parameters to establish who "won" this war will vary but if Russia has lost massive amounts of equipment (already have) and controls less area than they did prior to the Feb invasion they've undoubtedly failed by every standard that they themselves have set. That for 99.9% of people is a loss.

You're trying to set a standard that nobody but you and people who don't know what they're talking about would really agree upon because its of a high likelihood that said standard isn't a real goal and its highly likely Crimea will be given up as a face saving gesture of good-will to mitigate the threat of a nuclear catastrophe.