International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V9

[Deleted member 585708]

You seem a bit out of the loop so I'll fill you in.

Russia took Crimea 9 years ago. It was successfully taken by Russia with no fighting. That wasn't a war as much as it was a secession. Ukraine didn't contest it. It basically became part of Russia.

After that there was the War in Donbas. This was a "coup" from "ukranians" in the east with a whole bunch of Russian equipment suddenly appearing in the hands of "ukranians"

This was contested and eventually involved Russian troops due to the difficulty these "partisans" had in controlling the area. Fighting here stopped after establishment of the Minsk protocol. This land became "independent" and under control of the LPR and DPR. Though largely speaking most people concede these to be proxy states of Russia rather than genuine independent states.


Up until this point it's all clear wins for Russia. While there has been fighting between Russians and Ukranians there hasn't been a full scale war. Neither Ukraine nor Russia had fully committed and if it had ended here Russia is a clear winner.


Then 24th of Feb came round and Russia launched a weird, half assed full scale invasion. Basically they thought they could take Ukraine with around 1/5th of their troops in a "special military operation to demilitarize Ukraine" Thinking Ukraine would just roll over.

Only they found out this was not the case. Ukraine shut off its borders and mobilized the country. It's military personnel increased approximately 4 fold and this turned into a full scale war for Ukraine. Russia with it's first mover advantage took massive amounts of land while the west sent (by their standards) a bunch of pea shooters to Ukraine (MANPADS + ATGMS)

While Russia did take swathes of land here there wasn't a real clear winner in this situation as in all likelihood they took massive losses and in April publicly changed their strategy from "blitzkrieg" to artillery bombardment.

Although they didn't take massive amounts of territory after this change of strategy even the most ardent supporter of Ukraine would concede that Russia without doubt won this section of the war.

Then June came around and America decided that Ukraine had done enough to convince them that they were not the Afghan army and could reliably be given some decent weapons without them instantly falling into Russian hands. They sent a bunch of HIMARS artillery rocket systems and Ukraine hammered about 100 artillery supply depots to the pleasure of pyromaniacs around the world.

This is basically where it evened out and turned to Ukraines advantage. This about where Ukraine started seriously saying that Crimea is no longer off the table. Basically this area that they had given up was back on the table for capture. Russia being a bunch of dumbasses still tried to pretend that they weren't in a real war and a few months later lost about half the territory that they captured in their initial invasion in massive public losses. At this point Ukraine is winning and Russia can't really deny that.

So they mobilize.

That brings us to the weird situation where we are now. Winter has set in basically ending large scale advancements and Russia has sent enough troops not only to stop the large scale offensives but to go back to taking small amounts of territory. The exact amount they've mobilized is a huge question mark and another large wave is constantly on the rumor mill. We don't know really.

On the Ukranian side there's a lot of allusions to recent aid packages (which have been massive compared to previous packages) containing GLSDBs without actually saying they're sending GLSDBs. To understand the significance of this weapon it has twice the range of the HIMARS rockets and basically brings every target on Ukraines mainland within range of the Ukrainian army. In an artillery war this is massive.



All of this (2014-now) is called the Russo-Ukranian war, but when people say the war between Ukraine and Russia they're talking about Feb '23-now because that's when it become a full scale war.

All kinda confusing with a bunch of different stages.

Whether Crimea is really even a legitimate goal of Ukraine is conjecture. The parameters to establish who "won" this war will vary but if Russia has lost massive amounts of equipment (already have) and controls less area than they did prior to the Feb invasion they've undoubtedly failed by every standard that they themselves have set. That for 99.9% of people is a loss.

You're trying to set a standard that nobody but you and people who don't know what they're talking about would really agree upon because its of a high likelihood that said standard isn't a real goal and its highly likely Crimea will be given up as a face saving gesture of good-will to mitigate the threat of a nuclear catastrophe.

Feb 22, bro, not Feb 23.

 

[Cid]

Feb 22, bro, not Feb 23.

Cheers, edited.

 

[curryjunkie]

You seem a bit out of the loop so I'll fill you in.

Russia took Crimea 9 years ago. It was successfully taken by Russia with no fighting. That wasn't a war as much as it was a secession. Ukraine didn't contest it. It basically became part of Russia.

After that there was the War in Donbas. This was a "coup" from "ukranians" in the east with a whole bunch of Russian equipment suddenly appearing in the hands of "ukranians"

This was contested and eventually involved Russian troops due to the difficulty these "partisans" had in controlling the area. Fighting here stopped after establishment of the Minsk protocol. This land became "independent" and under control of the LPR and DPR. Though largely speaking most people concede these to be proxy states of Russia rather than genuine independent states.


Up until this point it's all clear wins for Russia. While there has been fighting between Russians and Ukranians there hasn't been a full scale war. Neither Ukraine nor Russia had fully committed and if it had ended here Russia is a clear winner.


Then 24th of Feb came round and Russia launched a weird, half assed full scale invasion. Basically they thought they could take Ukraine with around 1/5th of their troops in a "special military operation to demilitarize Ukraine" Thinking Ukraine would just roll over.

Only they found out this was not the case. Ukraine shut off its borders and mobilized the country. Its military personnel increased approximately 4 fold and this turned into a full scale war for Ukraine. Russia with it's first mover advantage took massive amounts of land while the west sent (by their standards) a bunch of pea shooters to Ukraine (MANPADS + ATGMS)

While Russia did take swathes of land here there wasn't a real clear winner in this situation as in all likelihood they took massive losses and in April publicly changed their strategy from "blitzkrieg" to artillery bombardment.

Although they didn't take massive amounts of territory after this change of strategy even the most ardent supporter of Ukraine would concede that Russia without doubt won this section of the war.

Then June/July came around and America decided that Ukraine had done enough to convince them that they were not the Afghan army and could reliably be given some decent weapons without them instantly falling into Russian hands. They sent a bunch of HIMARS artillery rocket systems and Ukraine hammered about 100 artillery supply depots to the pleasure of pyromaniacs around the world.

This is basically where it evened out and turned to Ukraines advantage. This about where Ukraine started seriously saying that Crimea is no longer off the table. Basically this area that they had given up was back on the table for capture or at the very least that is the threat. Russia being a bunch of dumbasses still tried to pretend that they weren't in a real war and a few months later lost about half the territory that they captured in their initial invasion in massive public losses. At this point Ukraine is winning and Russia can't really deny that.

So they mobilize.

That brings us to the weird situation where we are now. Winter has set in basically ending large scale advancements and Russia has sent enough troops not only to stop the large scale offensives but to go back to taking small amounts of territory. The exact amount they've mobilized is a huge question mark and another large wave is constantly on the rumor mill. We don't know really.

On the Ukranian side there's a lot of allusions to recent aid packages (which have been massive compared to previous packages) containing GLSDBs without specifically saying they're sending GLSDBs. To understand the significance of this weapon it has twice the range of the HIMARS rockets and basically brings every target on Ukraines mainland within range of the Ukrainian artillery. In an artillery war this is massive.



All of this (2014-now) is called the Russo-Ukranian war, but when people say the war between Ukraine and Russia they're talking about Feb '22-now because that's when it become a full scale war.

All kinda confusing with a bunch of different stages.

Whether Crimea is really even a legitimate goal of Ukraine is conjecture. The parameters to establish who "won" this war will vary but if Russia has lost massive amounts of equipment (already have) and controls less area than they did prior to the Feb invasion they've undoubtedly failed by every standard that they themselves have set. That for 99.9% of people is a loss.

You're trying to set a standard that nobody but you and people who don't know what they're talking about would really agree upon because its of a high likelihood that said standard isn't a real goal and its highly likely Crimea will be given up as a face saving gesture of good-will to mitigate the threat of a nuclear catastrophe.

I wouldn't describe manpads and atgms as pea shooters, they have had a huge effect on the battlefield.

 

[SandisLL]

Well, ofc western media is biased but also russian media is biased....
More than this: english language western media and in general eurooean media doesn't have advantages russian media had developed during 80+ years....
Russian politicians and mass media + propagandists and journalists with a glance are using 2 - 3 propaganda narrative versions : 1 designed for westerners in west ....
2. for russian speakers living in western countries.
3. for russian speakers in Russia....
Cos majority of mass media consumers in Russia, especially older population are using just few mass media channels and newspapers and in russian.
Therefore it is easy to maintain different explanations and excuses for ppl located in russia vs versions they are pushing for western world.
Like 2 different stories about the same thing....

Western media at least doesn't have such advantage and is capable to maintain just 1 version about 1 the same thing....

 

[cottagecheesefan]

You seem a bit out of the loop so I'll fill you in.

Russia took Crimea 9 years ago. It was successfully taken by Russia with no fighting. That wasn't a war as much as it was a secession. Ukraine didn't contest it. It basically became part of Russia.

After that there was the War in Donbas. This was a "coup" from "ukranians" in the east with a whole bunch of Russian equipment suddenly appearing in the hands of "ukranians"

This was contested and eventually involved Russian troops due to the difficulty these "partisans" had in controlling the area. Fighting here stopped after establishment of the Minsk protocol. This land became "independent" and under control of the LPR and DPR. Though largely speaking most people concede these to be proxy states of Russia rather than genuine independent states.


Up until this point it's all clear wins for Russia. While there has been fighting between Russians and Ukranians there hasn't been a full scale war. Neither Ukraine nor Russia had fully committed and if it had ended here Russia is a clear winner.


Then 24th of Feb came round and Russia launched a weird, half assed full scale invasion. Basically they thought they could take Ukraine with around 1/5th of their troops in a "special military operation to demilitarize Ukraine" Thinking Ukraine would just roll over.

Only they found out this was not the case. Ukraine shut off its borders and mobilized the country. Its military personnel increased approximately 4 fold and this turned into a full scale war for Ukraine. Russia with it's first mover advantage took massive amounts of land while the west sent (by their standards) a bunch of pea shooters to Ukraine (MANPADS + ATGMS)

While Russia did take swathes of land here there wasn't a real clear winner in this situation as in all likelihood they took massive losses and in April publicly changed their strategy from "blitzkrieg" to artillery bombardment.

Although they didn't take massive amounts of territory after this change of strategy even the most ardent supporter of Ukraine would concede that Russia without doubt won this section of the war.

Then June/July came around and America decided that Ukraine had done enough to convince them that they were not the Afghan army and could reliably be given some decent weapons without them instantly falling into Russian hands. They sent a bunch of HIMARS artillery rocket systems and Ukraine hammered about 100 artillery supply depots to the pleasure of pyromaniacs around the world.

This is basically where it evened out and turned to Ukraines advantage. This about where Ukraine started seriously saying that Crimea is no longer off the table. Basically this area that they had given up was back on the table for capture or at the very least that is the threat. Russia being a bunch of dumbasses still tried to pretend that they weren't in a real war and a few months later lost about half the territory that they captured in their initial invasion in massive public losses. At this point Ukraine is winning and Russia can't really deny that.

So they mobilize.

That brings us to the weird situation where we are now. Winter has set in basically ending large scale advancements and Russia has sent enough troops not only to stop the large scale offensives but to go back to taking small amounts of territory. The exact amount they've mobilized is a huge question mark and another large wave is constantly on the rumor mill. We don't know really.

On the Ukranian side there's a lot of allusions to recent aid packages (which have been massive compared to previous packages) containing GLSDBs without specifically saying they're sending GLSDBs. To understand the significance of this weapon it has twice the range of the HIMARS rockets and basically brings every target on Ukraines mainland within range of the Ukrainian artillery. In an artillery war this is massive.



All of this (2014-now) is called the Russo-Ukranian war, but when people say the war between Ukraine and Russia they're talking about Feb '22-now because that's when it become a full scale war.

All kinda confusing with a bunch of different stages.

Whether Crimea is really even a legitimate goal of Ukraine is conjecture. The parameters to establish who "won" this war will vary but if Russia has lost massive amounts of equipment (already have) and controls less area than they did prior to the Feb invasion they've undoubtedly failed by every standard that they themselves have set. That for 99.9% of people is a loss.

You're trying to set a standard that nobody but you and people who don't know what they're talking about would really agree upon because its of a high likelihood that said standard isn't a real goal and its highly likely Crimea will be given up as a face saving gesture of good-will to mitigate the threat of a nuclear catastrophe.

that is a good summary, but where am I off with my current assessment?

I am just asking when you think Crimea might be reclaimed

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Truly amazing. All the experts in this thread are like,

“ha! You don’t know about this 10 years ago, which is why you won’t understand something 20 years from now.

in the meantime, your guess is as good as mine! But 10 years ago and 20 years from now, just you watch! I got you! Yess more money for Ukraine please”

 

[GhostZ06]

Detailed analysis of the tactical situation in Bakhmut. We are seeing a slow, attritional grinding sort of war. Some analysts are speculating that we might not see a return to manouver warfare for many months yet (if at all). However, it is a common mistake to try to deduce the future of a war from the state it is currently in: if this video is correct, for example, in its thesis that Russia is overcommitting its forces to Bakhmut and will end up exhausted and in need of a break (after potentially taking the city), then that could potentially create a situation where Ukraine can counter attack succesfully and rapidly with fresh troops and new equipment... but it's all speculation at this point.

i mean theyre fighting for a city worth basically horse shit.

 

[Cid]

that is a good summary, but where am I off with my current assessment?

I am just asking when you think Crimea might be reclaimed

Your yardstick of success isn't likely a legitimate goal and is likely to be a goodwill gesture to prevent nuclear war. If they can take the mainland in its entirety it's certain that they would also be able to take Crimea as well.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Your yardstick of success isn't likely a legitimate goal and is likely to be a goodwill gesture to prevent nuclear war. If they can take the mainland in its entirety it's certain that they would also be able to take Crimea as well.

So to clarify, you think Ukraine will take back the rest of the country, the mainland, perhaps all but Crimea. You think that will happen within this spring offensive, or what would be the next next thing? Like so within the next 5 years we will have Crimea again, with the East? Or when might we have the East? 2-3 years?

admittedly, I am super ignorant on all this, just curious to your estimations since I am so ignorant

 

[Cid]

I wouldn't describe manpads and atgms as pea shooters, they have had a huge effect on the battlefield.

Compared to planes with over 1000x the price tag they're pea shooters. Western pea shooters are still going to be extremely effective though. Not saying they're not effective, just that they're the stuff we don't really give a shit about being captured.

There's two thoughts about what we send, how escalatory (sp?) they are and how damaging is the threat of their capture to our military dominance and in those regards they barely register.

So to clarify, you think Ukraine will take back the rest of the country, the mainland, perhaps all but Crimea. You think that will happen within this spring offensive, or what would be the next next thing?

Unlikely this year given the area controlled is massive and the reports of how long it will take for announced weapons to arrive to Ukraine. Also Russia re-enforcing troops and massive minefields make advancements much more difficult. Very surprised if there isn't further advancements though depending on the time of arrival of GLSDBs/vehicles announed.

There's lots of unknowns in wars that make it hard to predict but this has been an artillery war and will likely be won by the side with the more accurate and longer ranged artillery. If GLSDBs are sent then Ukraine ticks both those boxes.

 

[Strychnine]

So, if the "big push" is coming later?

What about the Russian soldiers that are on the frontlines right now and running low on supplies?

Just, "Go HARD and the Ukrainians will run!"????

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Compared to planes with over 1000x the price tag they're pea shooters. Western pea shooters are still going to be extremely effective though. Not saying they're not effective, just that they're the stuff we don't really give a shit about being captured.

There's two thoughts about what we send, how escalatory (sp?) they are and how damaging is the threat of their capture to our military dominance and in those regards they barely register.



Unlikely this year given the area controlled is massive and the reports of how long it will take for announced weapons to arrive to Ukraine. Also Russia re-enforcing troops and massive minefields make advancements much more difficult. Very surprised if there isn't further advancements though depending on the time of arrival of GLSDBs/vehicles announed.

There's lots of unknowns in wars that make it hard to predict but this has been an artillery war and will likely be won by the side with the more accurate and longer ranged artillery. If GLSDBs are sent then Ukraine ticks both those boxes.

true that. So you agree this will be an extended conflict that has no resolution on the horizon?

 

[AWilder]

When has that NOT been the Russian strategy and reputation?

Hey look, I was told my opinion on this topic is not nuanced enough (despite already admitting that), and that everything I say is false. Then when I try to get an informed opinion on the tactical situation, I get a word salad about shit 20 years from now?

I just want to know when Crimea is going to be liberated and the Russians have finally lost

The Russians have already lost. Liberation of Crimea will take more time.

 

[AWilder]

I follow rus social space since war began. They are not negotiating any shit right now. Maximum they can accept is a truce to buy time for new preparation. Only thing they are satisfied with is total destruction of the ukrainian state and subjugation of Kyiv under Moscow.

Considering Ukraine has done a very good job defending and even a decent job counter attacking at times it is not at all in their favor to sit down at the negotiation table right now for a truce. It would be the signature on their own capitulation as it would make foreign nations helping their war effort disinterested and plus give Rus time to rebuild the armed force for episode two.

Episode 3 if we're counting 2014

 

[AWilder]

Supposedly, Ukraine has about 150K men left.

Where are you supposedly getting this number?

 

[cottagecheesefan]

So just to conclude tonight’s discussion. Everyone seems to be in agreement this is an extended conflict and won’t commit to a prediction until about 10-20 years out, and that prediction is Russias reputation will be tarnished from its current amazing reputation?

But in 20 years, who is betting Crimea will be under Ukraine control. Anyone committing to that 20 year long bet?

 

[AWilder]

So the narrative has switched from, “anyone who says this will be prolonged with extensive casualties and spending for years and years” is a Russian bot

to “yea I expect this to drag out but in 20 years Russia will regret it!”


Lmfaooooooooo

never have I seen such morans

The only person who's said any of those statements is you. Are you looking in a mirror?

 

[Strychnine]

 

[SandisLL]

So, if the "big push" is coming later?

What about the Russian soldiers that are on the frontlines right now and running low on supplies?

Just, "Go HARD and the Ukrainians will run!"????

Looks that supplies are depending from area and some units are vell supplied, some no...

Ukr in Bakhmut area claims that attackers are very well supplied with ammo and veapons, also does have huge artillery and MRLS fire support.....

While they looks that are with limited abilities to use helicopters and aircraft due to MANPADs.
Yestrday had lost 1 Su 25 in this area.

 

[Hog-train]

Where are you supposedly getting this number?

Read it on a couple of articles, but forgot where. Could be inaccurate - who knows?