International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V9

[Yehudim]

Nobody wants to be on the losing side.

Especially when you’re broke as shit and they’re driving up the price of oil and wheat.

 

[GhostZ06]

Interesting article

The Ukraine repair shop: where Russian tanks go to change sides


https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/03/the-ukraine-repair-shop-where-russian-tanks-go-to-change-sides?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM=#amp_tf=From %1$s&aoh=16754487469969&csi=0&referrer=https://www.google.com&ampshare=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/03/the-ukraine-repair-shop-where-russian-tanks-go-to-change-sides

i wonder how many get shipped out of the country for our people to tinker with.

 

[AWilder]

I’m not sure Russia can arm, move and support that many troops given their track record in this war. I guess we will find out

Just go to the front and pick apart your dead comrades.

 

[Queen B]

Russia to do military joint exercises with China

 

[Rod1]

True. Do you think the that they will quickly fold and the east will be liberated by the end of this year?

That depends on what Ukraine is planning behind the scenes, Russia was gaining ground during the summer then out of nowhere Ukraine launched a massive counterattack in Kharkiv.

Is a new Ukrainian offensive being planned? is Russia throwing bodies to prevent Ukraine from gathering their forces?

Ill assume that Russia will keep pressuring Ukraine but eventually Ukraine will launch another counteroffensive.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Just go to the front and pick apart your dead comrades.

When has that NOT been the Russian strategy and reputation?

Hey look, I was told my opinion on this topic is not nuanced enough (despite already admitting that), and that everything I say is false. Then when I try to get an informed opinion on the tactical situation, I get a word salad about shit 20 years from now?

I just want to know when Crimea is going to be liberated and the Russians have finally lost

 

[cottagecheesefan]

That depends on what Ukraine is planning behind the scenes, Russia was gaining ground during the summer then out of nowhere Ukraine launched a massive counterattack in Kharkiv.

Is a new Ukrainian offensive being planned? is Russia throwing bodies to prevent Ukraine from gathering their forces?

Ill assume that Russia will keep pressuring Ukraine but eventually Ukraine will launch another counteroffensive.

Just to clarify though, you don't have any idea if it will be over in a year from now?

 

[Rholk]

Just to clarify though, you don't have any idea if it will be over in a year from now?

I doubt anyone can give an end date to this war as of now.
Too many factors at this point.
We sure can speed it up by supplying the necessary weapons tho.
Then we get to the end terms itself, will Russia need to completely withdraw, will they get to keep Crimea, etc.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I doubt anyone can give an end date to this war as of now.
Too many factors at this point.
We sure can speed it up by supplying the necessary weapons tho.
Then we get to the end terms itself, will Russia need to completely withdraw, will they get to keep Crimea, etc.

ok, so you think in maybe a year or perhaps 5 years they will negotiate over Crimea and potentially the East?

how is that any different than now?

 

[SandisLL]

hmm. the 500k number is as per the new defense minister

Perhaps their inflating the numbers to push for more arms? Guess we should be skeptic until US officials report a number like that. But would not be a good thing if they are inflating numbers...

They doesn't know real numbers.
Nor ukr nor west nor Russia.

Why?
Cos no one is able predict how much new mercenaries Wagner might hire.
Thus far doesn't looks that there were problems to hire next batches with mercenaries.....

Also it isn't known how much pro rus military might hire as a pros guys who had already served in military.
Maybe a lot if there are a lot if guys without money and job....maybe low number....

Putin told that partial mobilisation is !~300 000.
Then there is this mandatory casual conscription batch with guys from autumn ordinar mando consription. These are trained since autumn....

Plus these pros etc that already are in ukr.....etc things...


We can't predict how much Wagner might hire for next batches....
Maybe 10000, maybe 50000 , maybe more...

Etc.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

They doesn't know real numbers.
Nor ukr nor west nor Russia.

Why?
Cos no one is able predict how much new mercenaries Wagner might hire.
Thus far doesn't looks that there were problems to hire next batches with mercenaries.....

Also it isn't known how much pro rus military might hire as a pros guys who had already served in military.
Maybe a lot if there are a lot if guys without money and job....maybe low number....

Putin told that partial mobilisation is !~300 000.
Then there is this mandatory casual conscription batch with guys from autumn ordinar mando consription. These are trained since autumn....

Plus these pros etc that already are in ukr.....etc things...


We can't predict how much Wagner might hire for next batches....
Maybe 10000, maybe 50000 , maybe more...

Etc.

Mate, I don’t think Mercs are included in their official numbers.

I would be surprised if Ukraine had 500 thousand mercenaries as well

 

[JoeyJoeJoeJr]

The war will not end in 2023, too many interests for the globalists. They will send much more weapons and beg for construction deals to rebuild the destroyed country, enriching the global elite which is their plan. Once China attacks Taiwan it will be Russia and China against the US dramatically tipping the balance of power. If the US backed offensive threatens to take Crimea, Russia will launch nuclear weapons at Ukraine forcing them to surrender or face complete annihilation.

 

[Rholk]

ok, so you think in maybe a year or perhaps 5 years they will negotiate over Crimea and potentially the East?

how is that any different than now?

Right now they are still very much fighting for it.
It's questionable at best to say Russia will be able to take and (long term) hold the territory it has now.
Russia (more accurately Putin) doesn't seem willing/able to concede to anything (in my opinion substantiated by their BS claim to Kherson and Kharkiv which they lost), largely due to the regime beeing at risk if they do so.
So in short, Ukraine has alot to gain from fighting on, Russia seems to be more and more fucked the longer this drags on.
Lately even the Serbs have come to realise Russia is not going to be a major player in the future.

 

[SandisLL]

The russian problem wasn't lack of manpower or technique or ammunition.

They had more than enough...

2022 th february - may their biggest problem was ......maintenance and repairs and logistics....

In one case they didn't recieved in time supplies that should had been delivered with 27 very large railroad echelons in one day .....
Then a lot of such cases....

Also a lot of abadoned by russians technique wasn't in reality seized by Ukr in combat...
Vecihle doesn't move and they abadoned apparatus....
Ukr then had appratus and 0 POVs or killed or vounded rus soldiers serviced this vecihle to show ....

In one case they ofc were able to show real non export version Iskander launcher that had been abadoned.
In another episode 10 tanks, 9 grad launchers and 1 Pantsirj apparatus they were almost mint condition.... 0 POVs etc.. cos they were abadoned....

2 from T-90 Ukr showed in one case too weren't in reality captured ...
They were abadoned...0 ppl to see there ....
All 3? cases with Tor SAM vecihles...the same ....

Etc.

 

[Rholk]

The war will not end in 2023, too many interests for the globalists. They will send much more weapons and beg for construction deals to rebuild the destroyed country, enriching the global elite which is their plan. Once China attacks Taiwan it will be Russia and China against the US dramatically tipping the balance of power. If the US backed offensive threatens to take Crimea, Russia will launch nuclear weapons at Ukraine forcing them to surrender or face complete annihilation.

So who do you consider globalists and why?

 

[Badr Hari]

ok, so you think in maybe a year or perhaps 5 years they will negotiate over Crimea and potentially the East?

how is that any different than now?

I follow rus social space since war began. They are not negotiating any shit right now. Maximum they can accept is a truce to buy time for new preparation. Only thing they are satisfied with is total destruction of the ukrainian state and subjugation of Kyiv under Moscow.

Considering Ukraine has done a very good job defending and even a decent job counter attacking at times it is not at all in their favor to sit down at the negotiation table right now for a truce. It would be the signature on their own capitulation as it would make foreign nations helping their war effort disinterested and plus give Rus time to rebuild the armed force for episode two.

 

[SandisLL]

Mate, I don’t think Mercs are included in their official numbers.

I would be surprised if Ukraine had 500 thousand mercenaries as well

If you mean Wagner then NO.
Putin and Shoigu and Lavrov multiple times in spring - summer told that Wagner isn't Russia's military.

More than this...
2014- summer 2022 th Lavrov, Putin and Shoigu & Peskov multiple times had told in public that LPR and DPR ' republic ' militants AREN'T Russia's military...

So by logic their MoD didn't had any duty to report even these casualities and number of ppl they does have....

 

[SandisLL]

Mate, I don’t think Mercs are included in their official numbers.

I would be surprised if Ukraine had 500 thousand mercenaries as well

Not likely.

Plus for me more realistic might look that ukr does have lesser than 5k ...mercenaries.

Mainly they does have volunteers from Ukr, conscripts, local territorial defense ppl etc like stuff and their own pro military etc...

 

[Cid]

Corruption wise ukr is almost at russias level, was actually right after russia on europe corruption index.

No clue how war affects things though

War will undoubtedly reduce the problem of corruption. Ukraine has already moved up 20 places since 2014 and will improve at a dramatic rate over the next few years. You could list twenty reasons and it would still just be scratching the surface.

Massively increased nationalism, EU ascension requirements, massively increased media focus nationally and internationally, shift from theft to reason, increased sentencing, undermines military efficiency, threatens critical international support, facilitates independent and foreign involvement in prevention, threatens rebuilding efforts... the list goes on.

People focus on Zelensky asking for weaponry without realizing that it goes both ways. If US/EU tells him to jump he's going to say "how high" and both the US, the EU and everyone else are demanding this problem gets addressed. In certain areas they're just straight up taking over the role of preventing corruption. Ukraine doesn't get to say no to oversight demands from foreign countries.

Unfortunately we can already see in this thread that morons will see the ever increasing public prosecutions of these crimes as evidence of prevalent corruption rather than the effective addressing of corruption.

 

[San Marino]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023.
Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov supported ISW’s MLCOA assessment and possibly suggested that Russian forces have mobilized substantially more personnel for an imminent offensive.

Reznikov stated on February 2 that Russian forces are preparing to launch an offensive, likely in eastern or southern Ukraine. Reznikov stated that Ukrainian officials estimate that the number of mobilized Russian personnel is higher than the Kremlin’s official 300,000 figure. Reznikov stated that the Kremlin mobilized 500,000 Russian soldiers, although it is unclear whether this figure refers to Russian force generation efforts following the start of partial mobilization in September of 2022 or the total number of forces that Russia has committed to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 31 that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, excluding the 150,000 mobilized personnel still at training grounds. The total 476,000 personnel could be representative of Reznikov‘s figure, or the 500,000 figure could reflect an assessment that ongoing Russian crypto-mobilization efforts since the end of the first mobilization wave have generated a substantial number of additional forces. ISW has not observed indicators that crypto-mobilization efforts in past months have produced as many as 200,000 additional mobilized personnel, however, although it is possible. The mobilization of 300,000 Russian citizens generated far-reaching domestic social ramifications and provisioning challenges, and the further covert mobilization of another 200,000 personnel would likely produce similarly noticeable problems.

These efforts on the part of Russian officials are not succeeding in generating the likely desired effect of motivating Russians to want to participate in the war.

Russian State Services announced that as of February 2, the acceptance of applications for new passports has been suspended. Russian research and design joint-stock company Goznak (responsible for manufacturing security products such as banknotes and identity cards) responded with a statement that it has received an inundation of applications for the personalization of foreign passports, which require special embedded microchips. The shortage of microchips for passports and subsequent suspension of passport applications are in part consequences of the mass application for foreign passports in 2022, partially due to the exodus caused by partial mobilization. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that it issued over 5.4 million passports in 2022, 40% more than in the previous year. The increase in passport applications indicates that social conditioning efforts to bring the “special military operation” home to Russia and reinvigorate patriotic fervor are not having the desired effect. The Kremlin need not look further than passport statistics to poll domestic attitudes on the Russian population’s desire to fight Putin’s war.