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Jones tends to fight at the speed and within the range of his opponent, playing just on the edge. Against Stipe, you can get away with a lot more.The Jon that fought Stipe is getting slept in the first round if he fights Tom. Is he going to get better after another year off? I doubt it.
There would be a lot more caution against. Tom. He also didn't need to stand with Stipe, couldve just continued to dominate him on the ground, but chose to stand.
Hes not just going to stand with Tom and allow him to implement his game while fresh, he would take him down, tire him out and elbow his face for a while. Then Tom's striking would be tested with all that lactic acid buildup, while also worrying about the threat of the takedown.
Jon was hit a few times against Stipe, but dodged or slipped 90% of his punches. Even if his reflexes are a bit slower, he's still very hard to hit cleanly. The idea that anyone is just going to stop him so easily, when he's still one of the best defensive fighters in the sport is just bad analysis. Tom could do it, but there's a lot of walls to get past. Kicking range, oblique kicks, arm length as a way to control frames, level changes into takedowns.
I think the real question is can Tom defend Jon's wrestling. If the answer is no, then it's he's gonna have a hard time getting this mythical easy first round knockout.