Ufc on ESPN 67 underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

Virtually every card there is a fighter who beats the odds. Which fighter do you think is most likely to this card?

• Cory Sandhagen -485 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +370
• Reinier de Ridder +250 vs. Bo Nickal -310
• Santiago Ponzinibbio -120 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +100
• Montel Jackson -205 vs. Daniel Marcos +170
• Serhiy Sidey -135 vs. Cameron Smotherman +115
• Mason Jones -575 vs. Jeremy Stephens +425
• Yana Santos +115 vs. Miesha Tate -135
• Azamat Bekoev -380 vs. Ryan Loder +300
• Gillian Robertson -340 vs. Marina Rodriguez +270
• Gaston Bolanos -150 vs. Quang Le +125
• Don'Tale Mayes +210 vs. Thomas Petersen -260
• Juliana Miller +190 vs. Ivana Petrovic -230

Another wrong pick for me. I’m now 6-8. This card looks ripe with fighters who I could see pulling an upset. I’m currently eyeing 5 (which I’m sure most of them are wrong) but I’m leaning santos, Loder, Rodriguez, Mayes, and miller. I’m first going to listen to shillin and Duffy before I make my final pick.

Tough night for underdog picks. A shoutout to the only 2 who got it last week. @Madmartigains @oldschoolmmafan.
All caught up on missed callouts from previous cards now.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

Fig all the way

 

[Sean Chowdhury]

Loder, D rod, and Mayes are my picks if they are underdogs

 

[Croton]

Reinier de Ridder

 

[mkess101]

I like Smotherman. Sidey hasn't impressed me a ton. Smotherman will be busier, throws combos, and has good anti-grappling. He does tend to get rocked when hit clean which is a concern.

I'm going to this event. Smotherman and Smotherman decision will be plays for me. Stopping at the casino on the way to Des Moines!

 

[Ares Black]

De Ridder
Loder

 

[doozer]

I like Smotherman. Sidey hasn't impressed me a ton. Smotherman will be busier, throws combos, and has good anti-grappling. He does tend to get rocked when hit clean which is a concern.

I'm going to this event. Smotherman and Smotherman decision will be plays for me. Stopping at the casino on the way to Des Moines!

That’s awesome, have a great time!

 

[Skarsgard]

I still have no idea what those numbers mean.

 

[AP_RESURRECTION]

Fig all the way

The line here doesn't make sense to me, should be closer to even

 

[mkess101]

The line here doesn't make sense to me, should be closer to even

Sandhagen is built for 5 rounds. Line is wide yes, but it's Corey's fight to lose. Figgy has looked okay at 135 but Corey is just the longer, busier guy and absolutely has the better gas tank.

 

[doozer]

I still have no idea what those numbers mean.

Good point. You wouldn’t unless you hardened to know. They indicate what you get out the cost when betting based around $100.

A negative number indicates the favourite and how much you need to bet in order to win $100. With about Nickal -310 you need to place a $310 bet in order to win back $100 If he wins. That makes Bo a 3-1 favourite.

A positive number indicates an underdog. That is the amount you get back if you place a $100 bet and win. For example Ryan Loder +300 means if you bet $100 on Ryan Loder and he wins you get your $100 back plus $300 more. So he is a 3-1 underdog.

 

[Skarsgard]

Good point. You wouldn’t unless you hardened to know. They indicate what you get out the cost when betting based around $100.

A negative number indicates the favourite and how much you need to bet in order to win $100. With about Nickal -310 you need to place a $310 bet in order to win back $100 If he wins. That makes Bo a 3-1 favourite.

A positive number indicates an underdog. That is the amount you get back if you place a $100 bet and win. For example Ryan Loder +300 means if you bet $100 on Ryan Loder and he wins you get your $100 back plus $300 more. So he is a 3-1 underdog.

Thanks. I got out of betting when I was twenty or so. Made learning stuff like this difficult.

 

[doozer]

Thanks. I got out of betting when I was twenty or so. Made learning stuff like this difficult.

No problem. Yeah a little casual bet can be fun but it doesn’t hurt to stay out of too. Many a person has lost their home to it.

 

[Aurelian]

Reindeer has jumped to +305 on my site. That shits ridiculous. I got him in this.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

I'm surprised the Figgy Corey odds are so wide, is there an injury in Figgy's camp the bookies know about and we don't?
@doozer I actually enjoy these threads before each event

I'm going with Drod, as I haven't really believed in Ponzi since like 2019.

 

[Aurelian]

I'm surprised the Figgy Corey odds are so wide, is there an injury in Figgy's camp the bookies know about and we don't?
@doozer I actually enjoy these threads before each event

I'm going with Drod, as I haven't really believed in Ponzi since like 2019.

I think it's because it's a 5 rounder and Fig will gas trying to grapple. In a 3 rounder I would expect the odds to be closer.

 

[TITS]

I hope Jeremy Stephens wins at +425, but he's such a can now I wouldn't bet on it.

Not sure why Marina Rodriguez is such a big underdog here, sure she's terrible on the ground, but if she can keep it standing for the majority of the fight she'll put a striking clinic on Gillian.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

I think it's because it's a 5 rounder and Fig will gas trying to grapple. In a 3 rounder I would expect the odds to be closer.

That's fair. I'm always rooting for Corey, but Figgy is another favorite, so I just hope it delivers violence

 

[doozer]

I'm surprised the Figgy Corey odds are so wide, is there an injury in Figgy's camp the bookies know about and we don't?
@doozer I actually enjoy these threads before each event

I'm going with Drod, as I haven't really believed in Ponzi since like 2019.

Thanks, so happy to hear it!!
This one was definitely on my list of considerations. Both are old fairly good fighters but D Rod reals like he has just started and Ponzi was very good years ago.

 

[Koala]

RdR or DRod