UFC ON ESPN 72 underdog pick of the night

Hard card to pick for, but going with Ode Osbourne. Erceg will probably make it look easy, but part of me just thinks the guy forgot how to win and might have taken this fight lightly now he gets a break in level of competition.
 
Tweak896 said:
Hard card to pick for, but going with Ode Osbourne. Erceg will probably make it look easy, but part of me just thinks the guy forgot how to win and might have taken this fight lightly now he gets a break in level of competition.
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Ode can crack, but I'd be a little surprised if Erceg doesn't just take him down and work him on the mat. Avoid the risk of getting KO'd again like KKF did to him. Ode is 6-6 in the UFC and half his losses are by sub. Erceg is a good grappler. Path of least resistance.

Also, kinda feels like Erceg is being looked at as a fluke (at least in being a top echelon guy) but imo that's a bit unfair. He gave Pantoja all he wanted and the loss actually raised his stock. Then he gets caught by KKF and the air is let out. The Moreno fight was weird though. The announcers acted like it was one-sided but it really wasn't. Erceg outlanded Moreno every round. Had his moments. I do think Brandon won 48-47 because his punches had a bit more impact but Erceg was right there in that fight. And Moreno is obviously a legit top tier guy.
 
mkess101 said:
Ode can crack, but I'd be a little surprised if Erceg doesn't just take him down and work him on the mat. Avoid the risk of getting KO'd again like KKF did to him. Ode is 6-6 in the UFC and half his losses are by sub. Erceg is a good grappler. Path of least resistance.

Also, kinda feels like Erceg is being looked at as a fluke (at least in being a top echelon guy) but imo that's a bit unfair. He gave Pantoja all he wanted and the loss actually raised his stock. Then he gets caught by KKF and the air is let out. The Moreno fight was weird though. The announcers acted like it was one-sided but it really wasn't. Erceg outlanded Moreno every round. Had his moments. I do think Brandon won 48-47 because his punches had a bit more impact but Erceg was right there in that fight. And Moreno is obviously a legit top tier guy.
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I get it, and that's how I see Ode losing as well. But Erceg could be a guy who fights to the level of his opponent. I know this is supposed to be a layup for Erceg to get a W, but I'm just taking a hard pick, because no underdogs stand out.

We've seen guys skip the line and get thrown against the top but lose competitively, then not look the same like Joe Soto after TJ or Al Iaquinta after Khabib. Erceg has been in a weird position where he's been given the fallen champion treatment at FLW, where every fight has been such a high level for so long. Maybe even Izzy after Strickland fits, where he lost to Imavov. I think it's a fatigue after failing to get to the top and then losing to subprime competition in a gimme. I'm just gambling that Erceg's competitive flame has dimmed after running through the gauntlet.
 
Tweak896 said:
I get it, and that's how I see Ode losing as well. But Erceg could be a guy who fights to the level of his opponent. I know this is supposed to be a layup for Erceg to get a W, but I'm just taking a hard pick, because no underdogs stand out.

We've seen guys skip the line and get thrown against the top but lose competitively, then not look the same like Joe Soto after TJ or Al Iaquinta after Khabib. Erceg has been in a weird position where he's been given the fallen champion treatment at FLW, where every fight has been such a high level for so long. Maybe even Izzy after Strickland fits, where he lost to Imavov. I think it's a fatigue after failing to get to the top and then losing to subprime competition in a gimme. I'm just gambling that Erceg's competitive flame has dimmed after running through the gauntlet.
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I definitely get it, and there's a clear ptv for Ode if Erceg stands with him enough. He was straight smoking this level of guy prior to his title fight though. I think you're right in that if he loses here, a lot of it will be the mental aspect of trying to find his groove again.

I think his performance vs Moreno though was actually solid in the loss so I'm not seeing him "checking out" or losing his confidence.
 
mkess101 said:
I definitely get it, and there's a clear ptv for Ode if Erceg stands with him enough. He was straight smoking this level of guy prior to his title fight though. I think you're right in that if he loses here, a lot of it will be the mental aspect of trying to find his groove again.

I think his performance vs Moreno though was actually solid in the loss so I'm not seeing him "checking out" or losing his confidence.
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I get it, but sort of like Izzy, his performance against DDP was solid, there's countless guys who looked great in losses, but keep stacking them up. Still this is make or break for Erceg. Also looking at Erceg's stats, he's never performed as the better grappler since fighting David Dvorak or Alessandro Costa, who also had a bad run in the UFC. So we'll see.
 
Tweak896 said:
I get it, but sort of like Izzy, his performance against DDP was solid, there's countless guys who looked great in losses, but keep stacking them up. Still this is make or break for Erceg. Also looking at Erceg's stats, he's never performed as the better grappler since fighting David Dvorak or Alessandro Costa, who also had a bad run in the UFC. So we'll see.
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I think the issue with the Izzy comparison is you're talking about a 35 year old former champ with a TON of mileage (when you add in his kickboxing career) vs a 30 year old with way less mileage that's never been all the way at the top like Izzy was. Mentally and physically that's a big difference.
Erceg only has like 6-7 UFC fights, but he actually came to the UFC as more a grappler/submission guy than a striker. Yeah against lesser competition obviously, but Ode's grappling hasn't shown to really be UFC level either.
 
Tweak896 said:
I get it, and that's how I see Ode losing as well. But Erceg could be a guy who fights to the level of his opponent. I know this is supposed to be a layup for Erceg to get a W, but I'm just taking a hard pick, because no underdogs stand out.
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This is definitely the key. No underdogs stand out. Some people may feel differently but for me this card is full of saying why a certain fighter might win, not because it’s expected but because there are no clear picks. In every case the justification may feel a big dubious simply because we know the odds are against them but we’ve got to go with someone. It’s the ones who try to explain their pick who get challenged, but the rest of us are on just as shaky ground. (At least for the most part, I’m sure some people are pretty confident in their pick).
 
doozer said:
This is definitely the key. No underdogs stand out. Some people may feel differently but for me this card is full of saying why a certain fighter might win, not because it’s expected but because there are no clear picks. In every case the justification may feel a big dubious simply because we know the odds are against them but we’ve got to go with someone. It’s the ones who try to explain their pick who get challenged, but the rest of us are on just as shaky ground. (At least for the most part, I’m sure some people are pretty confident in their pick).
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Damn well I was close. Still might have been wrong but my intuition was there. I smelled an upset, Erceg squeaked it out.
 
Klose, Hernandez, Andrade, Meerschaert, Cannonier. Number one pick of night... Dricus Du Plessis.
 
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