The REAL TRUTH from a Poatan Fan

[Safton]

We've only seen Jones HW wrestling in two matches but he managed to keep Gane and Stipe down. You're right that it's hard to bet it's a sure thing at his age and mileage, but his technique atleast puts him ahead of the whole division by skill. It's even harder to gauge Stipe's status of his wrestling at his age with 1 fight since Ngannou. He could be washed or the time off meant he had even better TDD from healing.

Outwrestling Gane is no crazy feat; even a primary kickboxer in Volkov was having success in doing the same. I think it is a massive stretch to say that Stipe -- now in his early 40s -- would suddenly show improved TDD from time off. It's far more likely based on my experience watching the sport that ring rust, age, wear-and-tear, etc. had its way with him.

I feel like people refer to the Reyes fight too often to judge Jones, forgetting how unknown Reyes was and also how Jones possibly overlooked him. To me it seemed like fans and probably Jones thought that era of LHW were garbage, so it was free wins for Jones. (Santos, Smith, Reyes). Jones worst fights are usually against guys that no one thought would give him a tough fight. So I think he does take lighter training camps for opponents that are perceived to be weak.

I've never liked this argument nor bought into it because it relies entirely on supposition. It is based on making unfounded judgments about what Jones presumably thought about Reyes and how little preparation he did for his opponent and for XYZ reasons and I just don't go for that without some kind of compelling evidence.

Furthermore, even if we buy into that, it's not like Reyes is the only example at 205. Go back before that. He didn't really implement his wrestling against Santos despite Santos being a former Middleweight striker not known for elite TDD. That fight went to a very close Split Decision. Against Anthony Smith (another guy with a history of getting outgrappled), Jones really only had one round of success with his grappling and that was late in the fight after he beat up Anthony on the feet. Same with the rematch against Gus.

Again, I'm not saying that Jones isn't a remarkably talented and technical wrestler or that he hasn't had an "off-night" here or there during his career. What I'm saying is that I don't buy the argument that the dude at HW now is in 100% peak condition and every bit the same young, hungry grappler that mauled Rampage back in the day and any discrepancies can be explained by "Oh he just wasn't interested at THAT time".

As far as Blaydes and Almeida goes, interesting pick. I'd like to see a rematch if there's nothing new for either guy down the road. You're right that Almeida looks like he trains zero striking, it's like he doesn't even bother with it. Still your analysis makes me excited for a few matchups down the road if Jones vacates and leaves HW.

I just want HW to have some kind of forward mobility. Aspinall/Jones would be huge and I'd love to see it for the sake of the feeling of conclusion, but at this point I'd be fine with Jon vacating if it means we can move on and stop having two divisions running parallel to one another.

 

[Tweak896]

Outwrestling Gane is no crazy feat; even a primary kickboxer in Volkov was having success in doing the same. I think it is a massive stretch to say that Stipe -- now in his early 40s -- would suddenly show improved TDD from time off. It's far more likely based on my experience watching the sport that ring rust, age, wear-and-tear, etc. had its way with him.



I've never liked this argument nor bought into it because it relies entirely on supposition. It is based on making unfounded judgments about what Jones presumably thought about Reyes and how little preparation he did for his opponent and for XYZ reasons and I just don't go for that without some kind of compelling evidence.

Furthermore, even if we buy into that, it's not like Reyes is the only example at 205. Go back before that. He didn't really implement his wrestling against Santos despite Santos being a former Middleweight striker not known for elite TDD. That fight went to a very close Split Decision. Against Anthony Smith (another guy with a history of getting outgrappled), Jones really only had one round of success with his grappling and that was late in the fight after he beat up Anthony on the feet. Same with the rematch against Gus.

Again, I'm not saying that Jones isn't a remarkably talented and technical wrestler or that he hasn't had an "off-night" here or there during his career. What I'm saying is that I don't buy the argument that the dude at HW now is in 100% peak condition and every bit the same young, hungry grappler that mauled Rampage back in the day and any discrepancies can be explained by "Oh he just wasn't interested at THAT time".




I just want HW to have some kind of forward mobility. Aspinall/Jones would be huge and I'd love to see it for the sake of the feeling of conclusion, but at this point I'd be fine with Jon vacating if it means we can move on and stop having two divisions running parallel to one another.

Gane was injured against Volkov and still managed to have more control time than Volkov in the rematch. I don't agree with that decision, but the fact Gane is expected to be out for awhile pretty much is proof of his injury. People love to say how he has no ground game because it lets them cope with how easy Jones took him down and subbed him. He's pretty good at distance management, decent enough wrestling to stop everyone but Jones/Ngannou, and good enough BJJ to attempt shit like leg locks. Not to mention the usual "size and athletics" argument to anti-grappling.


As long as you bring up how Jones outwrestled DC, it's cool. Just pretty annoying to constantly hear about Reyes fight like he struggles like that every time. He's beat plenty of wrestlers to show his skills. Since DC rematch, he took down everyone but Santos where he clearly chose to stand. Ever since Usada came in 2015, he never looked as dominant on the ground like he used to,But he's still clearly a capable wrestler.

The dumbest thing is how Jones is even more proven recently than Aspinall, but Aspinall is given less scruitiny. Especially more proven than Aspinall who has only defended 2 takedowns his entire UFC career against Spivac in round 1. I think it's a warranted discussion about how Aspinall could have issues, he's already had a knee blow out.

Lastly I agree with you. Doesn't seem Jones is going to want to flush out the HW division, and the division is cursed. Feels like an eternity to watch DC/Stipe trilogy, Ngannou's 2 fights, Jones 2 fights. And it's been cursed even going back further. I wouldn't be surprised if it sticks to it's slow pace in the future as well. I wish the fight is signed or Aspinall starts cleaning up the division.

 

[Safton]

Gane was injured against Volkov and still managed to have more control time than Volkov in the rematch. I don't agree with that decision, but the fact Gane is expected to be out for awhile pretty much is proof of his injury. People love to say how he has no ground game because it lets them cope with how easy Jones took him down and subbed him. He's pretty good at distance management, decent enough wrestling to stop everyone but Jones/Ngannou, and good enough BJJ to attempt shit like leg locks. Not to mention the usual "size and athletics" argument to anti-grappling.

A lot of fighters go into fights injured or claiming injuries. Volkov had to pull out of their initially scheduled bout in Abu Dhabi with a knee injury which he had only just somewhat recovered from when the bout got rescheduled and a knee injury generally has far more dire ramifications than the "hairline toe fractures" Ciryl was suffering from when it comes to grappling exchanges.

As for the more control time...

I'm afraid not. Volkov controlled Gane for longer and scored more takedowns than Gane at the same number of attempts.

It was a bad decision. Volkov beat him and outgrappled him. Gane is not a particularly good grappler. He's not awful, but he's not good defensively and gets by a lot with his distance management, footwork, and athleticism. Anyone can fish for leg-locks, especially at HW.

As long as you bring up how Jones outwrestled DC, it's cool. Just pretty annoying to constantly hear about Reyes fight like he struggles like that every time. He's beat plenty of wrestlers to show his skills. Since DC rematch, he took down everyone but Santos where he clearly chose to stand. Ever since Usada came in 2015, he never looked as dominant on the ground like he used to,But he's still clearly a capable wrestler.

The dumbest thing is how Jones is even more proven recently than Aspinall, but Aspinall is given less scruitiny. Especially more proven than Aspinall who has only defended 2 takedowns his entire UFC career against Spivac in round 1. I think it's a warranted discussion about how Aspinall could have issues, he's already had a knee blow out.

Lastly I agree with you. Doesn't seem Jones is going to want to flush out the HW division, and the division is cursed. Feels like an eternity to watch DC/Stipe trilogy, Ngannou's 2 fights, Jones 2 fights. And it's been cursed even going back further. I wouldn't be surprised if it sticks to it's slow pace in the future as well. I wish the fight is signed or Aspinall starts cleaning up the division.

I mean why would I ignore how Jones outwrestled DC? I don't know why you think that would be relevant or why you think I would try to mitigate that. My argument has never been "Jones isn't a good wrestler", my argument is that towards the tail end of his run at 205 we started to see that wrestling look less and less dominant. His wins over DC were still when he was looking dominant by any stretch of the imagination.

I mean neither guy could take the other down or hold them down in the DC rematch, but that's fine. Saying he "took down everyone but Santos" ignores the vital context that I actually supplied in my last post. Like the fact that he tried to take Santos down and failed and nearly lost a Split Decision against the man. Against Gus in the rematch, Smith, and Reyes, the TDs came late in the fight when the men were fatigued and/or beaten up on the feet after he failed the early TDs. This is a stark contrast to the dominance Jon had in the wrestling department against ATGs earlier in his career, which is exactly my point.

I don't disagree that Aspinall has huge red flags and question marks surrounding him to -- especially against a guy who's as capable of a wrestler and with as much five-round experience as Jones. I don't disagree with that sentiment at all and it's why I don't understand why so many of Tom's fans are so confident he'd run through Jon or sprawl-n-brawl him with ease. I'm just saying that it sorta goes both ways, there's plenty of unknowns for what both guys are capable of at this weight class and it's why this match-up is so exciting and needs to happen.

 

[Tweak896]

A lot of fighters go into fights injured or claiming injuries. Volkov had to pull out of their initially scheduled bout in Abu Dhabi with a knee injury which he had only just somewhat recovered from when the bout got rescheduled and a knee injury generally has far more dire ramifications than the "hairline toe fractures" Ciryl was suffering from when it comes to grappling exchanges.

As for the more control time...

I'm afraid not. Volkov controlled Gane for longer and scored more takedowns than Gane at the same number of attempts.

It was a bad decision. Volkov beat him and outgrappled him. Gane is not a particularly good grappler. He's not awful, but he's not good defensively and gets by a lot with his distance management, footwork, and athleticism. Anyone can fish for leg-locks, especially at HW.





I mean why would I ignore how Jones outwrestled DC? I don't know why you think that would be relevant or why you think I would try to mitigate that. My argument has never been "Jones isn't a good wrestler", my argument is that towards the tail end of his run at 205 we started to see that wrestling look less and less dominant. His wins over DC were still when he was looking dominant by any stretch of the imagination.

I mean neither guy could take the other down or hold them down in the DC rematch, but that's fine. Saying he "took down everyone but Santos" ignores the vital context that I actually supplied in my last post. Like the fact that he tried to take Santos down and failed and nearly lost a Split Decision against the man. Against Gus in the rematch, Smith, and Reyes, the TDs came late in the fight when the men were fatigued and/or beaten up on the feet after he failed the early TDs. This is a stark contrast to the dominance Jon had in the wrestling department against ATGs earlier in his career, which is exactly my point.

I don't disagree that Aspinall has huge red flags and question marks surrounding him to -- especially against a guy who's as capable of a wrestler and with as much five-round experience as Jones. I don't disagree with that sentiment at all and it's why I don't understand why so many of Tom's fans are so confident he'd run through Jon or sprawl-n-brawl him with ease. I'm just saying that it sorta goes both ways, there's plenty of unknowns for what both guys are capable of at this weight class and it's why this match-up is so exciting and needs to happen.

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Well I was looking at that actually, I was just hyper focused on the first 2 rounds and ignored the last. Good point he controlled the fight total though. I think Gane had a really bad injury and not like a usual fight through it one, wasn't he limping walking out after the fight? Pretty sure I felt like Volkov was going to return quicker after that fight. Either way felt like Gane lost, so agreed. Though I guess by #'s you could sort of give him rounds 1 and 2, but I didn't have it that way live.

Just the way people talk about the guy is like he's a whitebelt with no wrestling. Not the best, but good enough to keep most of the current HW off of him. Would be interesting what Aspinall would do in terms of grappling if Gane kept him at bay like Ngannou. Almeida would be a nightmare match for Gane, so I definitely have him below there. I actually think Blaydes wouldn't just be able to grind out Gane. Gane's injury might be bad and I'll eat my words if he never looks good again after.





I just have PTSD from the Pavlovich hype train as far as Aspinall's red flags. Right after the Aspinall/Pavlovich fight was over it was like immediately people swapped what they were saying about him and then jumped to Aspinall. I remember bringing up his wrestling and a bunch would drone on about how "Khabib said he was a good wrestler, so he's really good just doesn't show it". Pavlovich couldn't take Volkov down but an injured Gane could.

As a fan I would hate to see Aspinall get grinded out by Jones wrestling and then people afterwards hop off the train like they pretty much did with Gane and Pavlovich. Or even another knee blowout. I'm just hoping it happens and it's 2 great fighters colliding in an epic fight. It's shitty when the past gets rewritten to suit narratives, I could picture Jones beating Aspinall and Aspinall basically gets described like Gane and Pavlovich afterwards. I just want some definitive great fight like Jones/DC was where whoever won beat a great fighter without any doubts.

 

[Safton]

Just the way people talk about the guy is like he's a whitebelt with no wrestling. Not the best, but good enough to keep most of the current HW off of him. Would be interesting what Aspinall would do in terms of grappling if Gane kept him at bay like Ngannou. Almeida would be a nightmare match for Gane, so I definitely have him below there. I actually think Blaydes wouldn't just be able to grind out Gane. Gane's injury might be bad and I'll eat my words if he never looks good again after.

I mean I think Gane would be able to keep, say... Tybura from outwrestling him but I wouldn't be surprised if even that level of opponent managed to bank a round on him. I think Aspinall gets him down and potentially finishes him on the mat. Almeida is definitely a bad match-up for him. The Blaydes of old would be a horrific match-up for him, but these days I think Curtis lumbers after him and potentially gets pieced up, but might end up up managing to grind him out. Seems 50/50ish.

I just have PTSD from the Pavlovich hype train as far as Aspinall's red flags. Right after the Aspinall/Pavlovich fight was over it was like immediately people swapped what they were saying about him and then jumped to Aspinall. I remember bringing up his wrestling and a bunch would drone on about how "Khabib said he was a good wrestler, so he's really good just doesn't show it". Pavlovich couldn't take Volkov down but an injured Gane could.

I felt like Aspinall/Pavlovich was a 50/50 fight and only favored Pavlovich narrowly because he was coming in on a full camp whereas Aspinall was coming in on short notice, following a bad injury, and his only win following said injury was Marcin who isn't really elite. I think Aspinall is more talented and dynamic of a fighter, but Pavlovich isn't a pushover. I felt like Pavlovich had a lot to prove still in regards to whether his own grappling was any good and if he could go deep into a fight.

Pavlovich only shot once on Volkov and I think a big part of Drago's success in keeping him at bay was seen in how that fight played out: at the end of Volkov's jab and kicks. Pavlovich basically tried to chase Volkov around all night and got picked apart. Gane had more answers for Alexander's footwork & striking arsenal and thus any takedown he attempted didn't need to be as desperate or telegraphed.

Frankly I don't think Pavlovich is that good of a grappler, either. So far he's won a few fights on the regionals with it and managed to grind out lackluster win over Rozenstruik, who's only successfully sprawl-n-brawled Gaziev in his time. I love Gaziev, but he's not a particularly good wrestler.

As a fan I would hate to see Aspinall get grinded out by Jones wrestling and then people afterwards hop off the train like they pretty much did with Gane and Pavlovich. Or even another knee blowout. I'm just hoping it happens and it's 2 great fighters colliding in an epic fight. It's shitty when the past gets rewritten to suit narratives, I could picture Jones beating Aspinall and Aspinall basically gets described like Gane and Pavlovich afterwards. I just want some definitive great fight like Jones/DC was where whoever won beat a great fighter without any doubts.

That's going to happen no matter what. Either "Aspinall was never good, just a guy crushing fat HW cans that Jones haters worshiped as their next great white hope" or "Aspinall is the new P4P GOAT" is he beats Jones. There will be no in-between. It's the unfortunate reality of the sport we watch.

 

[Dorkman]

Everyone wins and loses at some point. It's really not that complicated. Ank is a younger, top level guy. Poatan was the well traveled veteran combat sports champion. It's a story as old as time in fighting. Shouldn't affect anyones opinion of how quickly and devastatingly alex ascended to the mountain top of the sport. It never won't be insanely impressive what he accomplished in such a short time in MMA.

 

[Tweak896]

I mean I think Gane would be able to keep, say... Tybura from outwrestling him but I wouldn't be surprised if even that level of opponent managed to bank a round on him. I think Aspinall gets him down and potentially finishes him on the mat. Almeida is definitely a bad match-up for him. The Blaydes of old would be a horrific match-up for him, but these days I think Curtis lumbers after him and potentially gets pieced up, but might end up up managing to grind him out. Seems 50/50ish.




I felt like Aspinall/Pavlovich was a 50/50 fight and only favored Pavlovich narrowly because he was coming in on a full camp whereas Aspinall was coming in on short notice, following a bad injury, and his only win following said injury was Marcin who isn't really elite. I think Aspinall is more talented and dynamic of a fighter, but Pavlovich isn't a pushover. I felt like Pavlovich had a lot to prove still in regards to whether his own grappling was any good and if he could go deep into a fight.

Pavlovich only shot once on Volkov and I think a big part of Drago's success in keeping him at bay was seen in how that fight played out: at the end of Volkov's jab and kicks. Pavlovich basically tried to chase Volkov around all night and got picked apart. Gane had more answers for Alexander's footwork & striking arsenal and thus any takedown he attempted didn't need to be as desperate or telegraphed.

Frankly I don't think Pavlovich is that good of a grappler, either. So far he's won a few fights on the regionals with it and managed to grind out lackluster win over Rozenstruik, who's only successfully sprawl-n-brawled Gaziev in his time. I love Gaziev, but he's not a particularly good wrestler.



That's going to happen no matter what. Either "Aspinall was never good, just a guy crushing fat HW cans that Jones haters worshiped as their next great white hope" or "Aspinall is the new P4P GOAT" is he beats Jones. There will be no in-between. It's the unfortunate reality of the sport we watch.

Aspinall/Gane seems destined no matter how this Jones fight lands, would be interesting. I don't think Aspinall will lack foot movement like Ngannou just was sort of lost on the feet with Gane, Aspinall might actually stand and be able to land with speed to match Gane. We'll have to wait and see how it goes on the ground, I think Aspinall would have to tag/rock him to get him there, but hey we atleast mostly agree about the ranking of Gane's TDD.


With Pavlovich there was always the Overeem fight people could go back to point out how bad his grappling was, but I remember like yesterday fighting with people here how that was old and didn't count, Pavlovich was new and blah blah blah. Just very interesting how everyone abandoned him after his loss to Tom. He was so slow he barely could even get a chance to go for 1 takedown against Volkov. Either way, he got exposed in his last 3 fights: cardio, grappling, chin.

If this damn Jones negotiation falls I hope Aspinall breaks the HW defense record and we get a real champ running the weight class. But still I'm skeptical with how all the other hype trains fell. If you think about how Pavlovich was exposed, Aspinall has also really not been tested in those facets as I can remember. Wait actually Pavlovich cracked Tom pretty good and he took it well, so maybe he has a decent chin. However the jury is still out for his grappling/cardio. I just don't like blindly saying he's "the next HW goat" without really seeing his full skills. Easy to get distracted by all the 1st round KO's.

 

[Safton]

Aspinall/Gane seems destined no matter how this Jones fight lands, would be interesting. I don't think Aspinall will lack foot movement like Ngannou just was sort of lost on the feet with Gane, Aspinall might actually stand and be able to land with speed to match Gane. We'll have to wait and see how it goes on the ground, I think Aspinall would have to tag/rock him to get him there, but hey we atleast mostly agree about the ranking of Gane's TDD.

I do agree with that. Aspinall is very fast in terms of both footwork and hand speed; I think he's one of the few people who would be able to consistently catch Gane in the standup (though Volkov was doing pretty well in the rematch, injury or no). That said I don't think Aspinall would need to rock Gane to take him down if Volkov and Ngannou didn't. Aspinall has well-timed entries from what we've seen.

With Pavlovich there was always the Overeem fight people could go back to point out how bad his grappling was, but I remember like yesterday fighting with people here how that was old and didn't count, Pavlovich was new and blah blah blah. Just very interesting how everyone abandoned him after his loss to Tom. He was so slow he barely could even get a chance to go for 1 takedown against Volkov. Either way, he got exposed in his last 3 fights: cardio, grappling, chin.

I definitely had concerns because of the Overeem fight about his grappling and also his cardio because he kept getting Rd 1 TKOs. After Aspinall beat him, I just saw it as the better, faster guy winning. I think we've seen further holes in his game given what Volkov was able to do and the ease with which he was able to do it, but then Volkov has come a long way. Pavlovich is still as dangerous as ever and would clobber plenty of dudes in the division, he's just not the future HW GOAT some imagined him to be and that's fine.

I also don't know that we can necessarily say he's been "exposed" in those three areas by implying that he's somehow utterly deficient. I mean, he won his last fight largely with grappling so there's that. He has at least some and could probably outwrestle plenty of low-level dudes. Cardio? Maybe, I guess, we'd need to see him in a five-round environment but he's looked like a mixed bag across three. Chin? Volkov outstruck him thoroughly across 15 minutes and didn't finish him, but inflicted a lot of facial damage and frustrated him for sure. Aspinall has crazy power & hand speed and landed a perfect shot to steal his equilibrium. Overall I still think it's fair to say he's a solid Top 5, borderline Top 3 Heavyweight. It is what it is.

If this damn Jones negotiation falls I hope Aspinall breaks the HW defense record and we get a real champ running the weight class. But still I'm skeptical with how all the other hype trains fell. If you think about how Pavlovich was exposed, Aspinall has also really not been tested in those facets as I can remember. Wait actually Pavlovich cracked Tom pretty good and he took it well, so maybe he has a decent chin. However the jury is still out for his grappling/cardio. I just don't like blindly saying he's "the next HW goat" without really seeing his full skills. Easy to get distracted by all the 1st round KO's.

I mean I haven't called him the next HW GOAT and refuse to do so until he shows me more. I just think he's a talented fighter and easily one of the most talented in the division right now. I have concerns about his defensive grappling (because he hasn't been majorly tested there) but I have no major reason to believe he's deficient there. I have bigger concerns about his cardio, primarily because of the Arlovski bout. But either way, I look forward to seeing what he can show us one way or another.

 

[Tweak896]

I do agree with that. Aspinall is very fast in terms of both footwork and hand speed; I think he's one of the few people who would be able to consistently catch Gane in the standup (though Volkov was doing pretty well in the rematch, injury or no). That said I don't think Aspinall would need to rock Gane to take him down if Volkov and Ngannou didn't. Aspinall has well-timed entries from what we've seen.




I definitely had concerns because of the Overeem fight about his grappling and also his cardio because he kept getting Rd 1 TKOs. After Aspinall beat him, I just saw it as the better, faster guy winning. I think we've seen further holes in his game given what Volkov was able to do and the ease with which he was able to do it, but then Volkov has come a long way. Pavlovich is still as dangerous as ever and would clobber plenty of dudes in the division, he's just not the future HW GOAT some imagined him to be and that's fine.

I also don't know that we can necessarily say he's been "exposed" in those three areas by implying that he's somehow utterly deficient. I mean, he won his last fight largely with grappling so there's that. He has at least some and could probably outwrestle plenty of low-level dudes. Cardio? Maybe, I guess, we'd need to see him in a five-round environment but he's looked like a mixed bag across three. Chin? Volkov outstruck him thoroughly across 15 minutes and didn't finish him, but inflicted a lot of facial damage and frustrated him for sure. Aspinall has crazy power & hand speed and landed a perfect shot to steal his equilibrium. Overall I still think it's fair to say he's a solid Top 5, borderline Top 3 Heavyweight. It is what it is.



I mean I haven't called him the next HW GOAT and refuse to do so until he shows me more. I just think he's a talented fighter and easily one of the most talented in the division right now. I have concerns about his defensive grappling (because he hasn't been majorly tested there) but I have no major reason to believe he's deficient there. I have bigger concerns about his cardio, primarily because of the Arlovski bout. But either way, I look forward to seeing what he can show us one way or another.

Pavlovich's fall also might have to do with losing confidence, he clearly looks less aggressive like how he used to march forward like a bezerker. Hard to blame him after the Aspinall KO, plenty of guys go gun shy when they are worried their chins might not hold. If he can string a few KOs together, the hype train might come back, but 3 fights in HW is like 2 years away.

If there were odds for the future of HW division, it would surely be Aspinall by a wide margin. It's not like I hate the guy, or want him to lose, he's exciting as hell at HW even if he has terrible wrestling and cardio. No one can doubt his striking right now being on point, his striking alone gives Jones issues when it will only take a 1-2 landing and Jones will be out. Especially how Jones striking defense has leaned heavy into his distance management being the longer/taller fighter. It's going to be sad if this fight falls through because we already missed out on Ngannou/Jones to negotiations.

Most people just want to see this division move along and function like a regular division, we've had once a year real championship fights at HW so many years since UFC started. I feel like after Jones/Aspinall, there's really only Almeida, then everyone below is an easy title defense and whoever is champ could just take 3 of them out a year.

 

[Safton]

Pavlovich's fall also might have to do with losing confidence, he clearly looks less aggressive like how he used to march forward like a bezerker. Hard to blame him after the Aspinall KO, plenty of guys go gun shy when they are worried their chins might not hold. If he can string a few KOs together, the hype train might come back, but 3 fights in HW is like 2 years away.

He definitely seems a bit more gun-shy now. He used to blitz forward and clobber dudes, but that being said I'm also forced to acknowledge that the guys he's facing these days are harder to run at and clobber with no Plan B, lol. Aspinall, Volkov, even Rozenstruik... they're all way more dangerous with an understanding of footwork, distance management, and counter-striking compared to, say, Shamil Abdurakhimov.

If there were odds for the future of HW division, it would surely be Aspinall by a wide margin. It's not like I hate the guy, or want him to lose, he's exciting as hell at HW even if he has terrible wrestling and cardio. No one can doubt his striking right now being on point, his striking alone gives Jones issues when it will only take a 1-2 landing and Jones will be out. Especially how Jones striking defense has leaned heavy into his distance management being the longer/taller fighter. It's going to be sad if this fight falls through because we already missed out on Ngannou/Jones to negotiations.

Aspinall is certainly exciting, talented, and dynamic. I hope we find out about the depths of his grappling and cardio sooner rather than later... preferably in a title fight against Jones, but I'm not picky.

Most people just want to see this division move along and function like a regular division, we've had once a year real championship fights at HW so many years since UFC started. I feel like after Jones/Aspinall, there's really only Almeida, then everyone below is an easy title defense and whoever is champ could just take 3 of them out a year.

Yeah there aren't really any exciting Heavyweight contenders on the horizon. Almeida's a threat and I think eventually he'll find his way to a title shot even if it's in some kind of short-notice fuckery. I feel like he's one-dimensional enough that he'll never make it over the hump, though. Spivac's young enough that he'll probably be in the mix for a while yet, but ditto.

Other than that... Parkin doesn't jump off the page at me at all and just got derailed. I love Gaziev, but he's a fun brawler kind of guy, not an elite contender. Waldo's kind of a joke. Maybe Tallison? But he's so untested.

 

[Tweak896]

He definitely seems a bit more gun-shy now. He used to blitz forward and clobber dudes, but that being said I'm also forced to acknowledge that the guys he's facing these days are harder to run at and clobber with no Plan B, lol. Aspinall, Volkov, even Rozenstruik... they're all way more dangerous with an understanding of footwork, distance management, and counter-striking compared to, say, Shamil Abdurakhimov.




Aspinall is certainly exciting, talented, and dynamic. I hope we find out about the depths of his grappling and cardio sooner rather than later... preferably in a title fight against Jones, but I'm not picky.



Yeah there aren't really any exciting Heavyweight contenders on the horizon. Almeida's a threat and I think eventually he'll find his way to a title shot even if it's in some kind of short-notice fuckery. I feel like he's one-dimensional enough that he'll never make it over the hump, though. Spivac's young enough that he'll probably be in the mix for a while yet, but ditto.

Other than that... Parkin doesn't jump off the page at me at all and just got derailed. I love Gaziev, but he's a fun brawler kind of guy, not an elite contender. Waldo's kind of a joke. Maybe Tallison? But he's so untested.

Pavlovich tried with Aspinall, but the speed and skill difference probably was too much. Who knows if he'll ever look like the terminator again?

Aspinall seems the most well rounded HW besides Jones so no matter what happens he'll probably stay on top before his knees go out or something. It's not like even if Jones won he's going to be longer than Aspinall's prime will last. So win or lose Aspinall takes the top eventually.

I could see Almeida being a champ for a short period of time until someone with striking and TDD takes him out easy. I'm glad the HW division has a decent wrestler to atleast prevent guys like Tuivasa or like him from being top 5. Keeps the division honest because most like to slug it out and test their odds. Wherever the division goes after Aspinall will probably be someone not on the roster yet. Hope the division fixes itself eventually.

 

[Haj01]

To be fair he has evolved as an mma fighter. He stuffed all of Anks takedowns.

With some adjustments he could win a rematch. I'd still favour Ank though but its not like he got exposed for having shit grappling he did alright in that aspect.