I mean Spivac couldn't take Gane down 3 fights ago, everyone goes on about how he's a whitebelt. I'm talking about his wrestling only, and specifically in reference to Aspinall's body of work in the UFC when it comes to takedown defense. He's defended 2 Spivac takedowns in 1 round his whole career.
Spivak had a really awful performance against Gane. Like, career-worst. He had more success in the stand-up, believe it or not. It's one of the few times I have ever given any credence to the thought of "Did this guy get paid to take a dive?"
More seriously, I think he just had trouble with Gane's footwork and speed. He couldn't get a bead on Ciryl and thus the only takedown he committed to was from the other side of the Octagon, which Bon Gamin sprawled on without much issue. Spivak was able to close in better on Aspinall and get multiple chances, but still got shut down.
Also worth noting that Spivak and Almeida are different types of takedown artist. Spivak is more of an upper-body judoka/Greco guy, whereas Almeida primarily uses double/single-leg entries before transitioning to mat returns if he needs them.
I don't remember Aspinall wrestling Blaydes in either fight, looked at the stats and it doesn't show any takedowns attempted. I remember thinking that night how dumb Blaydes was to test his standup in their 2nd fight. I just rate guys how they use their game and the skills they use to defend against others.
Neither man really had a chance to shoot in the first fight and the second one didn't really last that much longer -- just a minute passed until Aspinall connected with Blaydes and finished him. Besides, Curtis's grappling has badly regressed over the years and I say this as probably one of the biggest Blaydes fanboys on Sherdog.
Like I said, I'm happy to be wrong about Aspinall, but it's an unknown along with his cardio. Either way if Jones is gone, Tom looks to be the guy to beat at HW.
That's the thing, I don't think his grappling is "unknown". I think we've seen enough to conclude that it's dangerous and has to be respected -- better than most Top 15 Heavyweights for sure -- but we just don't know if it's outright better than the other elites and sufficient to keep him safe from a dogged grappler like Jones or Almeida.
If Jones or Almeida end up grinding Aspinall down, I'll think I'll be right back saying I was right the whole time.
Yeah and if Aspinall sprawl-n-brawls Jones or subs him or something crazy I'll be saying I was right the whole time, same as if he replicates what Blaydes did to Jailton in a shorter amount of time. Except the thing is I'm not actually arguing that Aspinall is a categorically superior grappler to either of those men like you seem to think, I'm just saying that what we
have seen of his grappling is promising comparative to other HWs and I am not supremely confident that JBJ or Almeida would be able to bully him -- even though I acknowledge such as a real possibility.
I'm not saying he has no wrestling, just that if elite guys grab him he could look like a different fighter. We've never seen him struggle and get pushed in a fight yet.
Sure. He
could. Or he could acquit himself very well. It remains to be seen and neither outcome would surprise me based on avaialble evidence. I've spoken against and in favor of Aspinall over the years.
I guess that depends on one's definition of struggling/getting pushed. He visibly adrenaline-dumped and got hit more than one would like against Arlovski, a fight that ended up going late as a result and leaned on his grappling to seal the deal (hence why I question his cardio). Got clipped a bit early against Pavlovich. Has he had some back-and-forth five-round war where he had to survive a prolonged beating? No, but then again some fighters rise to the occasion and others don't.