Many of us pointed out that Aspinall has really unproven wrestling and a mediocre clinch game at best, this idea that Tom was going to easily submit Gane in 3 minutes was only built off the 2nd Volkov fight where Gane was injured and didn't have his usual movement or ability to defend takedowns. Also Tom has never in his UFC career attempted more than 2 takedowns in a fight, so the jury is still out on whether he has the gas tank to even consistently threaten them.
What stood out to me is how Aspinall tried to fight Gane, Aspinall has basically spent his entire career doing whatever he wants. He wins mostly by blitzing people or just being faster to the punch. This was the first time where Aspinall actually had to set something up, cut the cage off, utilize consistent pressure. But Tom isn't a real pressure fighter, he wasn't taking up the space between them. We also don't know if Aspinall even has the cardio to throw a 40 strike a round pace like he did in the first fight. Can he really keep that pace and danger after 8-9 minutes of going strike for strike? He also wastes a ton of energy it's insane, he's constantly bouncing around like he can kickbox for 5 rounds, Gane just let him bounce around and waste energy in the center of the octagon.
Usually Tom can be pretty on the outside and land a big counter, but this was the first time he would've been forced to make adjustments in order to win. He looked good at times, he has some serious skills. He tried a few crafty tricks to catch Gane, but this was the first time in the UFC where he threw 40 strikes at someone, and they weren't hurt or compromised in some way.
I like Gane in the rematch depending on the odds, there's way too many questions about Aspinall. Gane has a sturdy chin and better TDD than people give him credit for. I also could tell that Gane held a lot of his weapons back, in order to avoid grappling exchanges, but if at some point Gane is more comfortable throwing his front kicks, elbows, and knees, it will get really nasty for Aspinall.
In all likelihood in order for Aspinall to win he has to do a multitude of things we've never seen him do before:
- Aspinall has never beaten a fighter that can fight from two stances, and can easily fight an entire fight from southpaw.
- Aspinall has never thrown 65 total strikes in a UFC fight before, he would need to exceed that number by a mile if he can't land an early KO.
- If Aspinall can't secure a takedown early, he would need to utilize a litany of low kicks to slow down Gane, but Aspinall has never in his UFC career thrown more than 10 low kicks in a fight. This is something that gets overlooked, it's easy to throw a high kick or spinning kick 2 minutes in, but you'll notice those went away rather quickly. I have a feeling his heavy legs won't be able to sustain an attack for long.
- Gane has never been KO'd, Tom would need to be the first one to KO him.
- In order to takedown Gane, it's very possible he will need to attempt more than 2 takedowns, which is just more uncharted territory for him.
- It's also very likely that for Aspinall to win he'll have to be hit more than any other fight in his career, which will put a spotlight on his ability to take damage and deal with it potentially over the course of several rounds.
Some will think these things as insignificant, but they matter a lot. There aren't too many fighters who've shown so little, that might be required to do so much in order to win. I'm really curious about Tom's knee injury as well, his excellent performance against Volkov was BEFORE he blew his knee out, since then he's been exclusively a striker. I think the takedown attempt on Gane was the first one he's had in years. Some will say Tom went for a crappy takedown, but for all we know that may be the full extent of his double leg. He may need a trip or throw from the clinch in order to takedown people these days, but he doesn't appear to know how to pressure fight well to set that up.
While originally, I believed Tom had more ways to win, the more I analyze the two I realize that may not be the case.......
