Ellis saw three possible outcomes: the pressure could convince Venezuelan military bosses to topple Maduro “and solve the problem without the US”; Maduro’s regime could be “decapitated” by a major US operation, paving the way for a democratic transition; or Trump could strike “some sort of substantive deal” that ensures Maduro’s exit and gives US companies access to Venezuela’s abundant natural resources.
He thought such a deal might leave an undemocratic regime in place
. It might also involve building a Trump hotel “with a great golf course” in Venezuela’s capital.
“What is very difficult for me to imagine happening is that Maduro stays in power and this just goes on as it had before,” added Ellis, who suspected
Trump’s failure to remove Maduro during his first term meant he would be loth to fail again.
“I’m inclined to believe that … if we arrive at end of November [or] early December and there’s not a good deal or a resolution with the military taking this into their own hands … [then] the president very well could pull the trigger and do the operation,” Ellis said.
A Venezuela mission would not be the first in Latin America and the Caribbean conducted by the Night Stalkers, whose pilots specialise in infiltrating and exfiltrating special forces troops – called “customers” – from hostile places, nearly always at night.
In 1983, the group played a key role in Operation Urgent Fury, the
invasion of Grenada that Ronald Reagan ordered to stop the former British colony
becoming what he called “a major [Soviet-Cuban] military bastion”. In 1989, its pilots helped topple Panama’s dictator, Manuel Noriega, during George HW Bush’s Operation Just Cause. That campaign involved an audacious Night Stalker assault in which operatives rescued a US citizen from a Panama City prison while under heavy fire.
“They basically deliver [special forces] and extract them into impossible places … at night,” said Hartov. “When there’s a mission … that appears to be impossible because of the location or the [enemy’s] defences – whether it be extracting a high-value target or knocking out a particular dangerous target – the Night Stalkers are the only ones who can deliver.
“If you look at the record of how many [members] have died or been terribly injured in just training crashes, it’s probably higher than any other unit because they’re going fast and low in the dark.”
Many of the regiment’s hair-raising real-life operations have also ended in tragedy. In 1993, two Night Stalker helicopters were shot down with rocket launchers and five members killed during the Battle of Mogadishu, the two-day skirmish remembered in Ridley Scott’s film Black Hawk Down. Hundreds of civilians are also thought to have lost their lives.
“For the Night Stalkers, Mogadishu was a watershed moment … They emerged with some painful wounds,” said Hartov, who noted that the episode taught its members a hard lesson. “Despite their incredible access to hi-tech gear, weapons, support, communications, a man in a T-shirt and jeans with an AK-47 can bring down your helicopter.”
Andrés Izarra, a former Chávez minister now living in exile, said he foresaw a Somalia-style debacle if the US raided Caracas, the Venezuelan capital.
“The Venezuelan military [is] not very well prepared … but they have at least 30,000 praetorian guards,” he said of Maduro’s security apparatus, which includes the intelligence agencies DGCIM and SEBIN and police special forces.
Izarra reckoned Maduro also boasted 20,000 “hardcore” militia fighters armed with assault rifles and
Igla portable surface-to-air missiles. “How are you going to get a Black Hawk to operate in Venezuela, where anyone can have an Igla and bring it down?” he wondered. “They’re going to turn Caracas into Mogadishu.”
The prospect of a US attack has spooked regional governments, with Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, this week warning against outside meddling in a “continent free of weapons of mass destruction”.
“Foreign intervention can cause more damage than it seeks to prevent,” said Lula, whose military commanders recently sent 10,000 troops to Brazil’s northern border with Venezuela for exercises.
Earlier this month, Venezuela’s UN ambassador, Samuel Moncada, claimed Washington was “walking towards a catastrophe that may destroy the whole region for generations”. He said: “They’re coming for an invasion … to take away our country and turn us into a colony,” noting the presence of US helicopters near Trinidad.
Some doubt Trump will follow through, viewing his military manoeuvres as a bluff designed to intimidate Maduro or his military top brass.
Hartov was also sceptical Washington would launch a “massive” snatch-and-grab operation targeting Maduro or his ministers. “But they did so with Noriega – and the Night Stalkers were heavily involved in that. They did so with Saddam Hussein – the Night Stalkers were involved in that. They did so with Osama bin Laden.
“I would be nervous if I were [Maduro].”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-fears-regime-change-venezuela-nicolas-maduro