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UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

Boys, boys! Ask yourself the question: How many times Dustin lost a pure stand-up fight by decision (in the last 10yrs)? Because this will be 100% a kickboxing fight and prolly going to see the judges. If you cannot put him to sleep, he finds a way to win. Can Max recreate a headkick KO like Gaethje's or MJ's ridigulously fast pocket exchange?
Basically you think Max will outhustle Dustin (while avoiding being KO'ed)? I will be genuinely surprised.
Max from 2025 and 2019 though look different. He's a lot more agile and fights on his toes more. That's why I'm not so sure Dustin will get his shots off like before. Max has a good chin and fights better outside. Even in their last fight, it was competitive fight, and max got a lot of shots off Dustin. We'll see, i dont mind Max ML here.
 
Def is a step up though, I just can't trust Costa. Looks great vs Whittaker then shit vs Strickland and washed Rockhold.

Very tough to trust. Value, I guess. He's a fair dog. There's been tons of "value" bets that fail and it's "oh well, he had value" or whatever. And again, YES, he may win. Kop is no world beater.

But you have a guy that's been way more focused on his look, his hair replacement, and trolling on social media that being a quality MMA fighter. He blamed wine for is Adesanya humiliation. He didn't even TRY to make weight vs Vettori, which would have been cancelled if not for Marvin's willingness to fight up TWO weight classes. And no apology, just blamed an injury after the fact.

Like I said, I believed, and bet, that he had a gift wrapped fight vs Rockhold, finish a guy who's finished himself. Nope. Couldn't stop him, and even struggled a little.

Looked better vs Whittaker, not as better vs Strickland. And had multiple cancelled fights and/or fights that never materialized before that.

This a guy I will *never* trust, I don't care what the odds are. Best of luck.
 
No thoughts about the main event? Personally I never liked Max and I wish he loses again to DP. So take my "analysis" with a huge grain of salt lol
Does Poirier have value at slightly dog odds? I think he does. He's a bad match-up for Max. If Max wants to win this he gotta dig deeper than he ever had or score a clean KO. I don't think he can do it without bringing something new to the table. Poirier is the real BMF.

I slightly lean Dustin for a few reasons. I think the going up, then down, now back up again in weight isn’t great for Max. I think that Max relies a ton on volume and pace and just wearing out opponents. And he's great at it, but Dustin has good cardio too. Dustin has more power so his shots will likely show more impact. And finally, it's a home field fight for Dustin in his retirement fight so close rounds are more likely to go to him. The crowd will go nuts whenever he lands, and nobody can tell me that doesn't influence judging.
 
No thoughts about the main event? Personally I never liked Max and I wish he loses again to DP. So take my "analysis" with a huge grain of salt lol
Does Poirier have value at slightly dog odds? I think he does. He's a bad match-up for Max. If Max wants to win this he gotta dig deeper than he ever had or score a clean KO. I don't think he can do it without bringing something new to the table. Poirier is the real BMF.
I'll have a small bet on Dustin Poirier money line and a bigger bet on Max/Dustin ends ITD. Both bets are currently +115.
 
I slightly lean Dustin for a few reasons. I think the going up, then down, now back up again in weight isn’t great for Max. I think that Max relies a ton on volume and pace and just wearing out opponents. And he's great at it, but Dustin has good cardio too. Dustin has more power so his shots will likely show more impact. And finally, it's a home field fight for Dustin in his retirement fight so close rounds are more likely to go to him. The crowd will go nuts whenever he lands, and nobody can tell me that doesn't influence judging.
One thing with Max now is he's much more of a defensive fighter compared to how he used to fight. He's not a balls to the wall avalanche anymore and has taken more of a backfoot approach lately. He still throws a fuck ton of volume but I think this fight depends on how well Poirier can close the distance. Also the last fight whoever was going forward was winning but Max has gotten better off the back foot and it will be interesting to see if it makes a big difference.
 
I think Max has put on weight the proper way knowing he won't be going back to 145, could see a bit more power in his shots.

Both obviously highly motivated, I think I like Dustin as a dog though. 2-0 against Max (first fight is obviously irrelevant at this point though), hometown fighter and was able to win fairly comfortably by decision in the last fight scorecards wise. Most of Dustin's failures have come due to better grapplers which will be an irrelevance here since Max won't be taking Dustin down and Dustin is the better grappler. I'd generally be happy playing either as an underdog because I think you can make arguments for both, they're great fighters with no real weaknesses that are relevant here.

It'll be interesting to see how Max bounces back after getting KOed for the first time. He is hittable but generally takes punishment well and recovers quickly. He's still fairly young (or at least not old) in terms of years but he's been doing this for a long time and those that start young tend to drop off quicker due to how gruelling a sport it is. I don't think that'll play too much of a factor because I think Max still has a few years left at the top level, but it's worth considering.

Max is obviously a great boxer but Dustin is too. Dustin has more power, Max better movement but Dustin better kicks - I don't think he'll be able to destroy the calf like he did Conor but it'll be an element that Max has to think about rather than just pure boxing that Dustin will be concerned about.

It's a great fight really, I think we likely get a full 5 rounds out of it, both landing clean and often. A close-ish fight, I'll be really interested to see if Max has gained power on his punches with adding muscle mass with the permanent move. I think if he hasn't Dustin won't respect the power too much which will help him settle into his shots and be willing to step into the pocket confident he can take the best that Max can offer, although I think he'll likely do that regardless - he was happy enough to walk down Conor who we know has a lot more power than Max. Again, the Ilia KO will make things interesting. Will Max be less confident or alter how he fights coming off his first KO loss? I doubt it, but Dustin can hit hard.

Just a fun fight. Again would likely take either as an underdog, I'm perhaps a touch surprised that given the KO, Dustin at home, Max moving up and Dustin being 2-0 against Max, Dustin isn't the favourite here. I think by walk out the line might move a bit and it ends up being a pick em.
 
Who the fuck is backing Zellhuber at -650. One of the squarest lines I have ever seen.

Zellhuber on paper is this young exciting Mexican prospect. The problem is he's just not very good, and has been consistently overvalued, already losing as a big favorite twice in the UFC. (He was around -400 against Ogden, and -200 against Prado.)

Johnson should be 5-1 in his last 6 (with the loss to Mullarkey being a robbery). While his career has been plagued with inconsistency, he's show zero signs of decline. One of my big betting regrets was not going bigger on him against Diakiese (which was another example of him being massively undervalued).
 
Who the fuck is backing Zellhuber at -650. One of the squarest lines I have ever seen.

Zellhuber on paper is this young exciting Mexican prospect. The problem is he's just not very good, and has been consistently overvalued, already losing as a big favorite twice in the UFC. (He was around -400 against Ogden, and -200 against Prado.)

Johnson should be 5-1 in his last 6 (with the loss to Mullarkey being a robbery). While his career has been plagued with inconsistency, he's show zero signs of decline. One of my big betting regrets was not going bigger on him against Diakiese (which was another example of him being massively undervalued).
100p agreed. Zellhuber is great offensive striking wise and he might get to MJ first but aside from overhands from Diego and Emmet (faaaar from Zells game) nobody else has quite done it. Closest to beating MJ with Zells ultra agressive striking would be Nate Diaz but I dont even need to tell you how silly comparison that would be. Unless Zell cleaned up his striking defense (has been hit clean by every one of his opponents so far) or developed offensive wrestling game Id see this pretty dam coin flippy on paper.

Of course thats just paper and narrative wise Zell should win this with ease but I wont stop playing against stuff that I havent seen yet.

Not to mention its MJ at + odds. Nuff said.
 
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DP looks to be in the shape of his life. Max also looks great physically though. Should be a hell of a fight.
 
Tomorrow we have:

. PFL Cape Town: Eblen, Ditcheva, etc.
. Usyk vs. Dubois boxing card
. UFC 318
. Pacquiao vs. Barrios boxing card
And a Boxing card on DAZN with Rodriguez vs. Cafu as well.
 
Holland is -650 now? I must have missed something. Did D Rod not make weight? (going to check out weigh-ins)
 
Holland is -650 now? I must have missed something. Did D Rod not make weight? (going to check out weigh-ins)
Everyone made weight. I’m not sure why he’s such a big favorite. Holland has looked better lately, but that much better… I don’t know.
 
Everyone made weight. I’m not sure why he’s such a big favorite. Holland has looked better lately, but that much better… I don’t know.
Yeah, I even though the -350 was a bit much when I parlayed him with that. -650 is kinda ridiculous. With that being said, it's still not enough for me to put a bet on D-Rod yet haha.
Although, it might be some great livebet material if D-Rod has success and wins a round or two.
 
100p agreed. Zellhuber is great offensive striking wise and he might get to MJ first but aside from overhands from Diego and Emmet (faaaar from Zells game) nobody else has quite done it. Closest to beating MJ with Zells ultra agressive striking would be Nate Diaz but I dont even need to tell you how silly comparison that would be. Unless Zell cleaned up his striking defense (has been hit clean by every one of his opponents so far) or developed offensive wrestling game Id see this pretty dam coin flippy on paper.

Of course thats just paper and narrative wise Zell should win this with ease but I wont stop playing against stuff that I havent seen yet.

Not to mention its MJ at + odds. Nuff said.
MJ blessed our bum lives.

Only thing I'm pissed about is that I bet at +475 and he closed at +600. Sprinkled some more.

Too bad I'm playing with tiny stakes.
 
D Rod decision +750. You aren't gonna convince me this doesn't have value.

Holland has a granite chin, and is the better grappler. But his TD's aren't all that good (and he doesn’t attempt that many anyway, more capitalizes on mistakes to lock up subs when he gets them). D Rod can hang if this ends up just a kickboxing match (very possible) but is extremely unlikely to finish. I could see close rounds and a decision that gets debated after it's over.


Just gonna leave this here...🤑
 
MJ blessed our bum lives.

Only thing I'm pissed about is that I bet at +475 and he closed at +600. Sprinkled some more.

Too bad I'm playing with tiny stakes.
I played about 25 to win 150😁
MJ as dog always warrants some kinda play.
 
Just gonna leave this here...🤑
Beautiful hit, I was clearly off on this one. I will say I think Holland's chin is cracking, not a great look to be hurt multiple times by DRod.

FGTD hit so at least I made some money <lol>
 
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