UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

[mkess101]

D Rod decision +750. You aren't gonna convince me this doesn't have value.

Holland has a granite chin, and is the better grappler. But his TD's aren't all that good (and he doesn’t attempt that many anyway, more capitalizes on mistakes to lock up subs when he gets them). D Rod can hang if this ends up just a kickboxing match (very possible) but is extremely unlikely to finish. I could see close rounds and a decision that gets debated after it's over.

 

[jnes]

D Rod decision +750. You aren't gonna convince me this doesn't have value.

Holland has a granite chin, and is the better grappler. But his TD's aren't all that good (and he doesn’t attempt that many anyway, more capitalizes on mistakes to lock up subs when he gets them). D Rod can hang if this ends up just a kickboxing match (very possible) but is extremely unlikely to finish. I could see close rounds and a decision that gets debated after it's over.

Might have a little value, but this is a tailor made match up for Holland, older washed striker that isn't physical. I think speed is going to play a pretty big factor here, D Rod has looked pretty damn slow lately. I honestly think this might be Holland's easiest matchup since washed Ponz, would say it's definitely easier than Gunnar or Luque. FGTD +155 sticks out to me honestly.

 

[jnes]

i honestly see Olly winning 30-27 , unless kyler takes him down.

Vinicius just has much better boxing and solid tdd

I think Kyler is super sharp the first round of a fight, he just turns into 40% of the fighter once 7 minutes passes.

 

[mkess101]

Might have a little value, but this is a tailor made match up for Holland, older washed striker that isn't physical. I think speed is going to play a pretty big factor here, D Rod has looked pretty damn slow lately. I honestly think this might be Holland's easiest matchup since washed Ponz, would say it's definitely easier than Gunnar or Luque. FGTD +155 sticks out to me honestly.

D Rod looked decent striking vs Ponz. Holland has stretches where he clowns and doesn't press any action.

I would pick Holland to win if forced. But:

A) I think the ML is too wide to begin with. Maybe Holland -250ish I'd cap it?

and

B) I think there's almost no chance D Rod finishes Kevin.

Put those two thoughts together and that's how you arrive at me liking the value in that line.

 

[jnes]

D Rod looked decent striking vs Ponz. Holland has stretches where he clowns and doesn't press any action.

I would pick Holland to win if forced. But:

A) I think the ML is too wide to begin with. Maybe Holland -250ish I'd cap it?

and

B) I think there's almost no chance D Rod finishes Kevin.

Put those two thoughts together and that's how you arrive at me liking the value in that line.

Ponz is beyond shit now though, he shouldn't be in the UFC anymore and it wasn't a masterclass performance at all by Drod.

I agree though I don't see D Rod finishing Kelvin at all, but I think at best though it's going to be a 29-28 Holland.

 

[mkess101]

Ponz is beyond shit now though, he shouldn't be in the UFC anymore and it wasn't a masterclass performance at all by Drod.

I agree though I don't see D Rod finishing Kelvin at all, but I think at best though it's going to be a 29-28 Holland.

I mean...Ponz's next 2 fights after Holland were a split loss to Salikov (which I thought he won) and then a comeback KO win over Carlston Harris before getting KO'd by D Rod. Ponz is clearly getting up there but the way he survived and came back vs Harris showed he wasn't done.

In the end, it's a +750 prop. I think it has a better likelihood of hitting the the odds suggest.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Kyler is super sharp the first round of a fight, he just turns into 40% of the fighter once 7 minutes passes.

sure its his best round but Vinicius is consistent from the bell. he’s a good starter himself. and he has a lot of 1st round stoppages.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[burge13]

Prachnio T/KO +650 surely holds some value? Crute questionable chin, overrated, and very poor fight IQ? Even if prachnio is nothing special that seems big

 

[StewDogg11]

Man this place is dead. 28 responses for a PPV card? I remember 10-15 years ago it’d be like 10 pages deep. Anyone remember that dope MMAGoodfella droning on and on about how Machida was going to upset Weidman for instance?

 

[Goodfella86]

D Rod looked decent striking vs Ponz. Holland has stretches where he clowns and doesn't press any action.

I would pick Holland to win if forced. But:

A) I think the ML is too wide to begin with. Maybe Holland -250ish I'd cap it?

and

B) I think there's almost no chance D Rod finishes Kevin.

Put those two thoughts together and that's how you arrive at me liking the value in that line.

Great read. I was never so happy to waste money than when Michal O by decision was +800 against Holland. His KO line was much more favored. Even though I picked and bet on Holland by sub, i couldn't resist the decision line. And, even though he was knocked down, i still think there was no way he was getting tko'd by someone even as dangerous as Michal.

Holland has never truly been tko'd, and the worst he's been hurt was from a headbutt against Daukaus.

D-Rod may have more going on than meets the eye, submission-wise, but Holland has only ever been tapped by monsters (with maybe Brendan Allen being the WORST of em).

Decision is his only path to victory, without any horseshit.

 

[PuertoRican]

Man this place is dead. 28 responses for a PPV card? I remember 10-15 years ago it’d be like 10 pages deep. Anyone remember that dope MMAGoodfella droning on and on about how Machida was going to upset Weidman for instance?

If you remove Max vs. Dustin, then you'd have a mediocre APEX card with Costa vs. Kopylov as the main event.

Yeah, we used to have many more people posting here, but they eventually went busto or attempted to sell bets and stopped posting on Sherdog for whatever reason. We used to have several annoying people back in the day that made people less active, but they eventually left, too. Nowadays, people become more active on Sherdog on Fridays and Saturdays. I think it might boil down to this used to be the main place people would share their ideas, but nowadays there are many different sources of ideas that are shared via podcasts on YouTube.

MMA in 2025 as a whole is the biggest it ever has been with the amount of UFC-related content we are given, and you also have many other organizations hosting events every week. That being said, while we have more MMA content than ever, the sport isn't as popular as it used to be.

There used to be several big stars in MMA who were known worldwide, but they are all retired now (Jon Jones was the last of the stars, and he’s the old guy now). The biggest UFC star in 2025 is maybe Topuria or Makhachev, and even they aren't known to the masses outside of the sport.

As soon as big stars emerge in the UFC, then more casuals will want to start betting on the sport, and they'll eventually find their way to Sherdog. Or maybe I'm mistaken and Sherdog is old and people rather chat on places like Discord because its channels are easier to access via app. However, with Discord you run into problems of either a person trying to charge you to be in their MMA channel, or joining a free MMA channel and be surrounded by a bunch of newbie MMA bettors who you'd rather ignore.

I personally stay on Sherdog for the ability to talk with a community on fight days because it is fun. I'm not here to ask for tips or get feedback on my bets (not usually, anyway), but this tips/feedback aspect of Sherdog is important and it is something we have lost over the years, which has helped in the declining user base we have seen during the past 10 years or so.

 

[guidi]

At +200 I definitely see value on Costa, his resume is far more impressive than Kopylov. Costa has a far more impressive resume close fight with Whittaker and faced far more top middleweights, I can't shake Kopylov gassing against Fluffy and scoring a hail mary kick against Chris Curtis in a fight that he was losing, this is a big step up in competition for Roman.

 

[jnes]

At +200 I definitely see value on Costa, his resume is far more impressive than Kopylov. Costa has a far more impressive resume close fight with Whittaker and faced far more top middleweights, I can't shake Kopylov gassing against Fluffy and scoring a hail mary kick against Chris Curtis in a fight that he was losing, this is a big step up in competition for Roman.

Was he down on the cards? If I remember correctly he was winning that 3rd. I was pissed at that stoppage because I had Roman by decision at some crazy line lol.

Def is a step up though, I just can't trust Costa. Looks great vs Whittaker then shit vs Strickland and washed Rockhold.

 

[guidi]

Was he down on the cards? If I remember correctly he was winning that 3rd. I was pissed at that stoppage because I had Roman by decision at some crazy line lol.

Def is a step up though, I just can't trust Costa. Looks great vs Whittaker then shit vs Strickland and washed Rockhold.

2/3 score cards on sherdog PBP had Curtis up 2 rounds going into the third and I from what I remember that's how I had had as well, Costa can be a little inconsistent but he's fought way better opposition than Kopylov and its not even close (Whittaker, Romero, Vettori, Israel, Strickland, and a washed Rockhold)

 

[Jinx_AA]

Bankrolling holland /Drod under 2.5 for -140

I believe holland smokes him under 1.5 … but holland inside distance vs either to finish under 2.5 is almost identical value - have to take it

 

[Kyle Stephens]

No thoughts about the main event? Personally I never liked Max and I wish he loses again to DP. So take my "analysis" with a huge grain of salt lol
Does Poirier have value at slightly dog odds? I think he does. He's a bad match-up for Max. If Max wants to win this he gotta dig deeper than he ever had or score a clean KO. I don't think he can do it without bringing something new to the table. Poirier is the real BMF.

 

[Trupsi]

No thoughts about the main event? Personally I never liked Max and I wish he loses again to DP. So take my "analysis" with a huge grain of salt lol
Does Poirier have value at slightly dog odds? I think he does. He's a bad match-up for Max. If Max wants to win this he gotta dig deeper than he ever had or score a clean KO. I don't think he can do it without bringing something new to the table. Poirier is the real BMF.

I'm still thinking whether to bet on Dustin or pass.
He's 2-0 against Max, but first one is kinda irrelevant (ages ago and Max debut in UFC). In the second, he had issues with Max's volume at times, he still won because he landed the better shots but Max didn't bulk up for that fight.
Now we're 6 years later, Poirier will be slower and will still struggle with Max's volume. Yet he still carries more power, and the entire crowd will go nuts on every shot he lands. Now that Max has been KOed by Topuria, what about his chin ?
Tough choice...

 

[XociDe]

I think Max is gonna win a competitive but clear decision, probably 49-46. Max most likely has more gas in the tank, has filled into a legit 155 frame, is faster, arguably more technical, probably more durable, probably better cardio.

DP has been the "nearly man" his entire career. It's sad but true. His resume is one of the best ever but he never quite got to the tippy top. He lost the most important ones every single time (3 title fights, BMF title). I think he'll end his career in the same way.

Not gonna bet it though because there's a lot surrounding the fight that could impact performances, and I just want to enjoy it.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Boys, boys! Ask yourself the question: How many times Dustin lost a pure stand-up fight by decision (in the last 10yrs)? Because this will be 100% a kickboxing fight and prolly going to see the judges. If you cannot put him to sleep, he finds a way to win. Can Max recreate a headkick KO like Gaethje's or MJ's ridigulously fast pocket exchange?
Basically you think Max will outhustle Dustin (while avoiding being KO'ed)? I will be genuinely surprised.