Economy The great housing market crash of 2022

[12ga.]

Do not underestimate American's willingness to overleverage themselves. If someone can comfortably afford a 3 bedroom 2 bath, you better believe they will stretch to get a 4 bedroom or more. That's simply American.

Listen to the Dave Ramsay show. You have guys calling in that are somehow smart enough to have a 300K p/year job but are fucking broke. One doofus today was thanking Dave for telling him he should give up his 150K+ mercedes and get a honda. America is filled with assholes like this who are obsessed with keeping up with the Joneses. I don't know what a crash would be defined as but I would bet there will be a lot of assholes like this who find themselves holding a bag of shit because they are living paycheck to paycheck despite having massive incomes.

Some people are ugly and spending is only way to get pussy though.

Seriously I knew this stuff in HS in the 80s studying habits of billionaires like Sam Walden. A good book so you don't have to listen to radio shows is Millionaire next door.

 

[Otto!]

Ruh oh. Not a complete crash yet, but this is not a good sign

I hate when they cut the bottom scale of the Y axis like this as it is misleading. This makes it look like a much bigger drop than it actually is when you look at the columns.

 

[Otto!]

I feel this...

I just made a bid $65000 over asking and was still outbid.

My son finally got a house by paying 95k over asking in east end of Ottawa. Before that he had been outbid on 4-5 houses even with 100k over asking. Unreal.

 

[MeatheadMike]

Do not underestimate American's willingness to overleverage themselves. If someone can comfortably afford a 3 bedroom 2 bath, you better believe they will stretch to get a 4 bedroom or more. That's simply American.

Listen to the Dave Ramsay show. You have guys calling in that are somehow smart enough to have a 300K p/year job but are fucking broke. One doofus today was thanking Dave for telling him he should give up his 150K+ mercedes and get a honda. America is filled with assholes like this who are obsessed with keeping up with the Joneses. I don't know what a crash would be defined as but I would bet there will be a lot of assholes like this who find themselves holding a bag of shit because they are living paycheck to paycheck despite having massive incomes.

You aren't wrong, but at the same time it doesn't necessarily mean a crash is on the way.

In 2007 around 60% of loans were ARMs, today that number is around 4%. Last year everyone who bought got the lowest interest rates in history and many of those who already owned refinanced to get that rate. These people are unlikely to move or default anytime soon.

That means the fundemental problem is housing supply is depleted, and this won't change for the foreseeable future. The people buying now with both high interest rates and high demand are the ones who are really over extending themselves and at risk of running into trouble... but that will likely take a long time to be felt, if at all. I think a crash is defined by a 20% reduction in a short period of time... that's not happening. At best, next year we may see price flattening and maybe a small reduction in specific reginal markets only.

 

[ElKarlo]

You've never struck me as particularly good at following arguments, so I'm not surprised that you have no idea how my mind is shaped.

As for the topic at hand...

Your video did not address what I said.

That’s often the case with him. He’s a good guy and all that but when it comes to things like this he has no idea how other people are or their point of view or anything like that. I had a discussion about Covid and its impact on children and he basically said it’s just wearing a mask and it’s not going to impact children anyway. I cited sources about suicide and depression among children rising dramatically and he just dismissed it Basically if it’s not impacting him or the people media around him he doesn’t think it’s real. I get what you’re saying and I will see agree with it social media and all that stuff it’s hard to escape it unless you’re going basically Amish or near Amish. It’s ubiquitous And essentially Unex capable for most people. As you stated if you’re in around the areas where people are watching it or using it it’s gonna impact you in some way hopefully not as much but there are cases where it can

 

[EL CORINTHIAN]

That’s often the case with him. He’s a good guy and all that but when it comes to things like this he has no idea how other people are or their point of view or anything like that. I had a discussion about Covid and its impact on children and he basically said it’s just wearing a mask and it’s not going to impact children anyway. I cited sources about suicide and depression among children rising dramatically and he just dismissed it Basically if it’s not impacting him or the people media around him he doesn’t think it’s real. I get what you’re saying and I will see agree with it social media and all that stuff it’s hard to escape it unless you’re going basically Amish or near Amish. It’s ubiquitous And essentially Unex capable for most people. As you stated if you’re in around the areas where people are watching it or using it it’s gonna impact you in some way hopefully not as much but there are cases where it can

He thinks we are going to build sky scrapers with aerated swiss cheese concrete and gets angry when you point out the absurdity.

Toxic individual that gnome.

 

[EL CORINTHIAN]

I think you have got to be one of the dumbest posters I've ever interacted with on sherdog.
If a structural engineer couldn't convince you of how ridiculous you sound right now than it's clear we are dealing with a brain dead, narcissistic, idealist chode

I cited sources about suicide and depression among children rising dramatically and he just dismissed it Basically if it’s not impacting him or the people media around him he doesn’t think it’s real.

You've never struck me as particularly good at following arguments, so I'm not surprised that you have no idea how my mind is shaped.

Notice a pattern here buddy? @spacegnome

 

[12ga.]

LOL maybe not

 

[Deleted member 577981]

Notice a pattern here buddy? @spacegnome

yes but not the one you are thinking about.

 

[deadon]

LOL maybe not

Here we go, again. He'll do anything to avoid what's coming for as long as he can. But it's coming.

 

[ElKarlo]

He thinks we are going to build sky scrapers with aerated swiss cheese concrete and gets angry when you point out the absurdity.

Toxic individual that gnome.

He just thinks what he wants and doesn’t want to accept any evidence to the contrary. Not only that, he doesn’t even debates it. He just hand wave dismisses it

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Just bumping this with the Dow below 30k today.

Oh, while rumors now stirring that the housing market is about to be rocked. And just watch, it is going to start with the market cooling, and then as people cannot pay their mortages, the foreclosures will follow. This all just getting started

 

[Dalarna3]

Housing will stay valuable so long as there are fewer houses than families.

 

[deadon]

Housing will stay valuable so long as there are fewer houses than families.

No way, with rates up something has to give. Rates have moved into the 6s since this article was released.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/08/mortgage-demand-falls-to-the-lowest-level-in-22-years.html

 

[TardStrong]

Housing will stay valuable so long as there are fewer houses than families.

This wasnt the case in 2008?

 

[TardStrong]

Interest rates rise and it will crush construction and real estate. I think so much of the economy is tied into construction in term of materials (making the materials, sales and transportation) that it is really going to cause massive job losses. Construction and real estate will get wiped and will drag everything down.

2008 still saw low interest rates we dont have that luxury this time around. It is going to be a cash is king market

 

[deadon]

Interest rates rise and it will crush construction and real estate. I think so much of the economy is tied into construction in term of materials (making the materials, sales and transportation) that it is really going to cause massive job losses. Construction and real estate will get wiped and will drag everything down.

2008 still saw low interest rates we dont have that luxury this time around. It is going to be a cash is king market

100% and add high fuel prices and everything goes up.
Recession is here.

 

[MeatheadMike]

Just bumping this with the Dow below 30k today.

Oh, while rumors now stirring that the housing market is about to be rocked. And just watch, it is going to start with the market cooling, and then as people cannot pay their mortages, the foreclosures will follow. This all just getting started

There's still a severe housing shortage keeping prices high... we are still well below pre-pandemic inventory levels and bidding wars are still a thing in many areas (like mine). The new construction plummeting may just further delay this inventory issue from getting resolved.

https://fortune.com/2022/06/07/hous...in-breakdown-in-americas-400-largest-markets/

Also I don't see how people will suddenly not be able to pay their mortgages after buying or refinancing with the lowest interest rates ever last year.... unless they lose their jobs (which could happen down the line). But right now unemployment is at historic lows because of the labor shortage going on as well. If anything the people buying now are the ones in danger of getting foreclosed on down the line.

 

[deadon]

There's still a severe housing shortage keeping prices high... we are still well below pre-pandemic inventory levels and bidding wars are still a thing in many areas (like mine). The new construction plummeting may just further delay this inventory issue from getting resolved.

https://fortune.com/2022/06/07/hous...in-breakdown-in-americas-400-largest-markets/

Also I don't see how people will suddenly not be able to pay their mortgages after buying or refinancing with the lowest interest rates ever last year.... unless they lose their jobs (which could happen down the line). But right now unemployment is at historic lows because of the labor shortage going on as well. If anything the people buying now are the ones in danger of getting foreclosed on down the line.

Sure people got great rates but if they bought in the last few years they paid too much.

With these rate increases it will bring down the prices. This will put people underwater that bought within the last few years. Sure they can stay in the home they have but there will be no equity loans. People won't be able to pull cash out.

If you add in inflation and fuel prices people are struggling. We're starting to see the layoffs and soon it will be a domino affect. Then wages will adjust and the distance from wages and inflation will increase. Again, more of a domino affect.

Lack of housing won't matter. You can't force people to pay when they can't. I see prices dropping 30 to 40%. I also see families having to pool together and live under one roof.

But hey this is just my opinion based on what I've seen in the past and present.

Best part is we have a running topic on this so we can look back and see what guess was the closest lol.

 

[MeatheadMike]

This wasnt the case in 2008?

No, in 2008 everyone was defaulting on their sub-prime mortgages and the housing market got flooded with inventory. Currently about 95% of people in the US have fixed rate mortgages