Economy The great housing market crash of 2022

[Mr Holmes]

From that source:

"Across the country, about 1 in every 1,121 properties had a foreclosure filing in the third quarter. That’s a return to almost pre-pandemic levels as foreclosure moratoriums put in place in the early days of COVID-19 have expired."
​

A "surge" in foreclosures after the moritorium was lifted, causing them to almost return to prepandemic levels isn't really indicative of anything.

The moritorium was lifted sometime ago. I guess we'll have to wait and see if the rate of foreclosures level off. However, there are lots of compounding factors: Inflation is much higher now, CC debt is an all time high, student loan start up again this month, gas is much higher, etc.

 

[MeatheadMike]

The moritorium was lifted sometime ago. I guess we'll have to wait and see if the rate of foreclosures level off. However, there are lots of compounding factors: Inflation is much higher now, CC debt is an all time high, student loan start up again this month, gas is much higher, etc.

It was lifted about a year ago, but foreclosures take time to go through so now it's finally caught up to almost the normal level.

The reason home prices aren't going down is homeowners have 30yr fixed mortgages of ~3%, and are refusing to sell and buy something else with a mortgage of almost 8%. This has been keeping inventory low and prices from budging.

Student debt is pretty much inconsequential since the majority of homeowners are baby boomers and gen Xers, with no student debt. Inflation also inconsequential because home prices (and therefore home equity) are the thing that got inflated the most in recent years.

If unemployment numbers start to go up things could change, but that seems unlikely right now since we still have a labor shortage.

 

[I Am Legion]

Different parts of the country have different issues going on. Due to high interest rates, people are not moving out in NY in my area. This causes less houses on the market which drives demand up. A small Cape by me is bringing 650k, and it needs 100k of work. People will buy these homes at the stupid interest rate bc they have no choice. Then when the rates go down the market will drop, and the cycle starts all over again.

 

[MeatheadMike]

Different parts of the country have different issues going on. Due to high interest rates, people are not moving out in NY in my area. This causes less houses on the market which drives demand up. A small Cape by me is bringing 650k, and it needs 100k of work. People will buy these homes at the stupid interest rate bc they have no choice. Then when the rates go down the market will drop, and the cycle starts all over again.

If mortgage rates go back down to about 5%, homeowners may start selling again which may improve inventory... but it will also cause a bunch more buyers who are sidelined from the high rates to come back out of the woodwork and prop up the housing market. So most likely there will be no drop in home prices unless there's a big unemployment spike or until baby boomers get old enough were they start dying rapidly.

 

[blackheart]

Neoliberalism is such an abject failure. It's crazy that things are this bad and the only options our government thinks it has are to drop interest rates and let the economy roar again which will continue to drive home prices up through institutional investment in residential property, or, keep interest rates high making mortgages unaffordable and just pray that prices come down and the economy downturns enough that enough people lose their jobs, driving prices down.

"It's a supply issue! There simply aren't enough homes!"

There are 17 million vacant residential properties in the US. There are clearly enough homes.

What that statement actually means is "There simply aren't enough homes (for institutional investors with access to unlimited cash from the fed, to buy an unlimited amount of residential property, while keeping the housing market affordable for regular working people looking for a place to live)." That's what that means.

It would be extremely easy to remedy the housing crisis. The government could build 2,000,000 affordable, quality homes over the next 5 years. They could sell them at cost and recoup 100% of all taxpayer money used to do so. So there is no cost to the taxpayer.

But no! You can't do that! That's socialism! You're interfering in the market! Won't someone think of the property value of existing homes?! Who gives a fuck that millions of young people looking to start families with a stable home are denied the opportunity to do so. 82 year old Gertrude and Theodore Rutherford need their homes to appreciate another 200k and increase their net worth by 3% before they die! And Jamie Dimon needs another private jet!

 

[HockeyBjj]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...xth-month-in-a-row-case-shiller-says-2060f19b

U.S. home prices rose for the sixth month in a row, Case-Shiller Index says

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 1% in August, as compared with the previous month.

On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the 20 major metro markets in the U.S. were up 2.2% nationally.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose on a month-over-month basis in August by 0.9%, but rose 2.6% over the past year. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.

“Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates,” Thomas Ryan, property economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

“We think monthly gains in house prices will soften over the remainder of the year in response to the rise in mortgage rates to just under 8.0%. But an extreme lack of inventory in the existing homes market means we don’t anticipate any further house price falls,” he added.

 

[HomeCheese]

Prices up here 15% over the last year I believe. Still very low inventory.

 

[Jack V Savage]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...xth-month-in-a-row-case-shiller-says-2060f19b

U.S. home prices rose for the sixth month in a row, Case-Shiller Index says

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 1% in August, as compared with the previous month.

On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the 20 major metro markets in the U.S. were up 2.2% nationally.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose on a month-over-month basis in August by 0.9%, but rose 2.6% over the past year. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.

“Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates,” Thomas Ryan, property economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

“We think monthly gains in house prices will soften over the remainder of the year in response to the rise in mortgage rates to just under 8.0%. But an extreme lack of inventory in the existing homes market means we don’t anticipate any further house price falls,” he added.

We're also more than a year out from when there was allegedly a 100% chance of a recession in the next year, and the most recent GDP growth figure was 4.9%. Rooting against America must suck.