Housing market crash incoming?

[suprah]

Im stuck with fha 5.75. but it was still cheaper than rent back then and wayyyyyyy cheaper now. Buying a home has saved me a fortune.

 

[chardog]

We are at a 3% rate, although we have a home equity (no balance right now) with a higher rate. We're doing a lot: New floors throughout the entire house, total kitchen gut (cabinets, counter top, some rearranging), two bathroom guts (not relocating anything, but new showers in both, jacuzzi tub, cabinets, counter, etc.), and then replacing the old built-ins in the dining with new cabinets. There is a lot of little shit too - baseboards, some lighting stuff, removing a loft in a room, etc. Let's just say the quote is higher than my home equity line lol. With the renovations and with the appreciation of the house in general, we can probably refinance the home equity to a much higher limit. I do not want to refinance the first mortgage obviously. I own my company so I take large draws a few times a year, so I may just try to pay a lot of it out of pocket too. I don't want to drain my non-liquid investments. With having draws available whenever (I'm an S corp where I'm the sole stockholder), I only keep about $10k liquid.

couldnt you "loan" yourself from your company for the renovation, and then not pay back?

boom, tax free renovation <45>

 

[Oblivian]

couldnt you "loan" yourself from your company for the renovation, and then not pay back?

boom, tax free renovation <45>

The renovations are far more than I keep in the company account! It's not cheap. It's basically redoing the entire inside. Cheaper than buying right now though.

 

[kahiljabroni]

We are at a 3% rate, although we have a home equity (no balance right now) with a higher rate. We're doing a lot: New floors throughout the entire house, total kitchen gut (cabinets, counter top, some rearranging), two bathroom guts (not relocating anything, but new showers in both, jacuzzi tub, cabinets, counter, etc.), and then replacing the old built-ins in the dining with new cabinets. There is a lot of little shit too - baseboards, some lighting stuff, removing a loft in a room, etc. Let's just say the quote is higher than my home equity line lol. With the renovations and with the appreciation of the house in general, we can probably refinance the home equity to a much higher limit. I do not want to refinance the first mortgage obviously. I own my company so I take large draws a few times a year, so I may just try to pay a lot of it out of pocket too. I don't want to drain my non-liquid investments. With having draws available whenever (I'm an S corp where I'm the sole stockholder), I only keep about $10k liquid.

Sounds like it'll essentially be a new interior. We thought hardwoods were a no Brainer but after seeing the damage our dogs have done we wish we did Luxury vinyl planks. Best of luck man.

 

[Oblivian]

Sounds like it'll essentially be a new interior. We thought hardwoods were a no Brainer but after seeing the damage our dogs have done we wish we did Luxury vinyl planks. Best of luck man.

That's what we are doing! Our floor lady advised against hardwood due to the two dogs. We are keeping carpet upstairs (noise level), but vinyl plank everywhere else besides bathroom (tile). The cabinets are the huge cost for us. When all is said and done, I think we'll have about 40 cabinets between the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining rooms. We went with quartz countertops too which didn't help.

 

[chardog]

The renovations are far more than I keep in the company account! It's not cheap. It's basically redoing the entire inside. Cheaper than buying right now though.

yeah, that sounds expensive, I'm considering getting rid of the jacuzzi, not my style, but I did go through that whole ideal many years ago, might have cost close to 100K, and I recall that being fairly inexpensive due to the fact that I spent so much of my own time and energy nickel and diming every single aspect. did the outdoor kitchen myself since the floor was torn away, brought out water and draining access, redid some of the older plumbing because I have trust issues with steel drainage, did an extra seal of waterproofing for the backer board because I could.... cut holes in my ceiling and did my own lighting, probably the toughest work, ran cat 6 for POE camera system.... man, I did a lot of shit back then <45>

new driveway, removing a ton of trees, removing the old pool, laying tile/wood, I wasnt willing to do. I did make a mistake of buying solid wood floors, I really should have went with vinyl. other than that, porcelain floored kitchen - winner, quartz instead of granite - winner, mid grade glass instead of pro/commercial level glass - mistake, vinyl fencing all around - winner, fake grass - winner, running outdoor electric in many locations - winner, synthetic baseboard - absolute failure, non porcelain tile - mistake, vinyl windows - winner, used Viking vent (60") which required a crapload of custom work by myself (gigantic blower motor mounted on roof) - winner, used thermador 48" cooktop with the same issues - winner, yes I went used because mansions in hollywood sell their units for pennies on the dollar, they just want them gone <45>

another purely situational item was solar/power wall, the California blackouts were driving me mad, which lead me to research about solar, and it turns out, it was a huge winner due to subsidies and price, may not be applicable for everyone.

remodelling is so much fun, can be painful, and super rewarding.

 

[Oblivian]

yeah, that sounds expensive, I'm considering getting rid of the jacuzzi, not my style, but I did go through that whole ideal many years ago, might have cost close to 100K, and I recall that being fairly inexpensive due to the fact that I spent so much of my own time and energy nickel and diming every single aspect. did the outdoor kitchen myself since the floor was torn away, brought out water and draining access, redid some of the older plumbing because I have trust issues with steel drainage, did an extra seal of waterproofing for the backer board because I could.... cut holes in my ceiling and did my own lighting, probably the toughest work, ran cat 6 for POE camera system.... man, I did a lot of shit back then <45>

new driveway, removing a ton of trees, removing the old pool, laying tile/wood, I wasnt willing to do. I did make a mistake of buying solid wood floors, I really should have went with vinyl. other than that, porcelain floored kitchen - winner, quartz instead of granite - winner, mid grade glass instead of pro/commercial level glass - mistake, vinyl fencing all around - winner, fake grass - winner, running outdoor electric in many locations - winner, synthetic baseboard - absolute failure, non porcelain tile - mistake, vinyl windows - winner, used Viking vent which required a crapload of custom work by myself (gigantic blower motor mounted on roof) - winner, used thermador 48" cooktop with the same issues - winner, yes I went used because mansions in hollywood sell their units for pennies on the dollar, they just want them gone <45>

another purely situational item was solar/power wall, the California blackouts were driving me mad, which lead me to research about solar, and it turns out, it was a huge winner due to subsidies and price, may not be applicable for everyone.

remodelling is so much fun, can be painful, and super rewarding.

I started doing a lot of stuff myself as well because getting a contractor to actually show up and get shit done was just as rough. I don't get into plumbing, drywall, or electrical (besides switching out light fixtures), but I did some floors, baseboards, trim, etc. It's just hard for me to get time to do it with the kids in so many sports. I considered doing the baseboards after the new flooring was in, but the cost saving was a small % of what we are paying. In the end, I don't really enjoy the indoor work for some reason. Now outdoor stuff I like. I did all of the landscaping and enjoy that part.

 

[chardog]

That's what we are doing! Our floor lady advised against hardwood due to the two dogs. We are keeping carpet upstairs (noise level), but vinyl plank everywhere else besides bathroom (tile). The cabinets are the huge cost for us. When all is said and done, I think we'll have about 40 cabinets between the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining rooms. We went with quartz countertops too which didn't help.

before vinyl got popular, we went with cherry hardwood...... absolute fail

have a rental and went with vinyl, and the tenants moved in a refrigerator with siezed wheels.......... can hardly see the scratches, only if you look at a certain angle and really really look for it. amazing stuff.

I started doing a lot of stuff myself as well because getting a contractor to actually show up and get shit done was just as rough. I don't get into plumbing, drywall, or electrical (besides switching out light fixtures), but I did some floors, baseboards, trim, etc. It's just hard for me to get time to do it with the kids in so many sports. I considered doing the baseboards after the new flooring was in, but the cost saving was a small % of what we are paying. In the end, I don't really enjoy the indoor work for some reason. Now outdoor stuff I like. I did all of the landscaping and enjoy that part.

I did my own fake grass, calculated that I needed 3 square yards of gravel....... I didnt know what that meant, borrowed a truck...... boy was I in over my head

1 square nearly destroyed the truck, because it was actually a cubic dimension. Secondly, the roll of grass was riduclously big and heavy to haul, but it was too late. I did shave off 4K in labor costs, but damn, it was a lot of work that me and my dad were committed to doing...... a crap ton of work over a few days, and we were done, but wow, who knew it would take so much effort to dig 6" and dispose of the dirt, and why is gravel so damn heavy <45>

 

[boingyman]

before vinyl got popular, we went with cherry hardwood...... absolute fail

have a rental and went with vinyl, and the tenants moved in a refrigerator with siezed wheels.......... can hardly see the scratches, only if you look at a certain angle and really really look for it. amazing stuff.

I did my own fake grass, calculated that I needed 3 square yards of gravel....... I didnt know what that meant, borrowed a truck...... boy was I in over my head

1 square nearly destroyed the truck, because it was actually a cubic dimension. Secondly, the roll of grass was riduclously big and heavy to haul, but it was too late. I did shave off 4K in labor costs, but damn, it was a lot of work that me and my dad were committed to doing...... a crap ton of work over a few days, and we were done, but wow, who knew it would take so much effort to dig 6" and dispose of the dirt, and why is gravel so damn heavy <45>

Damn. I can't imagine how many hours that took. I redid the front yard mulch area. Added some paver surround and wanted to the dirt lower so I could pile on the mulch deeper. All I can say is that it took way longer then I thought with a shovel alone lmao! I eneded up not going down as much because it was taking too long (and it would save me on the amount of mulch I needed to purchase). I've debated for years to put in turf in the backyard myself, but it sounds painful and during the summer it gets way too hot. My neightbor said part of his turf area is burnt from the summer sun hitting a window and reflecting back acting like a magnifying glass. Plan to renovate our bathrooms over the next couple of years. Likely will do the smaller downstairs bathroom first. Easy weekend job (since I wouldn't need to touch the shower) with my Dad's help. The master bath would be a huge project though.

 

[chardog]

Damn. I can't imagine how many hours that took. I redid the front yard mulch area. Added some paver surround and wanted to the dirt lower so I could pile on the mulch deeper. All I can say is that it took way longer then I thought with a shovel alone lmao! I eneded up not going down as much because it was taking too long (and it would save me on the amount of mulch I needed to purchase). I've debated for years to put in turf in the backyard myself, but it sounds painful and during the summer it gets way too hot. My neightbor said part of his turf area is burnt from the summer sun hitting a window and reflecting back acting like a magnifying glass. Plan to renovate our bathrooms over the next couple of years. Likely will do the smaller downstairs bathroom first. Easy weekend job (since I wouldn't need to touch the shower) with my Dad's help. The master bath would be a huge project though.

I did pavers/retainers around the grass, that felt like it was by far the easiest of the work all things considered. sunrise to sunset, just kept digging digging digging, I can get into an autistic frienzy and concentrate on the task. Worked as much as my body could hold up, slept, did it again the next day and the next until I finished.

from what I recall, the tile guy charged me less, and that was a job I could have done as well, but I knew the guy well and his work is immaculate, so I paid for it. The cost clouded my judgement, I did save a ton of money, but my body paid for it.

 

[boingyman]

I did pavers/retainers around the grass, that felt like it was by far the easiest of the work all things considered. sunrise to sunset, just kept digging digging digging, I can get into an autistic frienzy and concentrate on the task. Worked as much as my body could hold up, slept, did it again the next day and the next until I finished.

from what I recall, the tile guy charged me less, and that was a job I could have done as well, but I knew the guy well and his work is immaculate, so I paid for it. The cost clouded my judgement, I did save a ton of money, but my body paid for it.

I'm the same way, but my wife love to bitch that I'm taking forever on any project so I need to pick and choose my battles. Before kids no problem, but with kids I can't take on long projects unless my entire family is gone for that time period. For example she took the kids to Hong Kong for over 3 weeks. I was able to paint my stair railing/base/stringers. Talk about a tedious job, but I just kept going. Took about 2 weeks since I had to wait inbetween coats and still had to work M-F. If I remember correctly I did 2 coats of primer and 3 coats of paint, but honestly the most tedious part was the prepping especially dealing with the covering the iron balusters. Here is the before and after. Hard to see the before, but the stain/top coat was done horribly. pealing top coat. Many areas exposed back to the original stain. I see why painters charge an arm and a leg to do this job...

 

[shinobimusashi]

People say it continuously. Then once every 20 years or so.....they are right (to some extent).

I remember reading newspaper articles as early as 2004 that predicted the 2008-09 crash

 

[chardog]

I'm the same way, but my wife love to bitch that I'm taking forever on any project so I need to pick and choose my battles. Before kids no problem, but with kids I can't take on long projects unless my entire family is gone for that time period. For example she took the kids to Hong Kong for over 3 weeks. I was able to paint my stair railing/base/stringers. Talk about a tedious job, but I just kept going. Took about 2 weeks since I had to wait inbetween coats and still had to work M-F. If I remember correctly I did 2 coats of primer and 3 coats of paint, but honestly the most tedious part was the prepping especially dealing with the covering the iron balusters. Here is the before and after. Hard to see the before, but the stain/top coat was done horribly. pealing top coat. Many areas exposed back to the original stain. I see why painters charge an arm and a leg to do this job...
View attachment 1020409

looks like it would give someone with adhd nightmares

I gave my wife instructions on how to paint and she did a good job. No stairs to deal with, so it's much more straightforward. swapped out all of the doorknobs and fixtures, which made it even easier. we were renters at the time, kids didnt hold us back too much, did the work when they were at school and when they came back, had them sweep the back yard, which was pointless, but kept them busy and out of the way.

 

[kahiljabroni]

That's what we are doing! Our floor lady advised against hardwood due to the two dogs. We are keeping carpet upstairs (noise level), but vinyl plank everywhere else besides bathroom (tile). The cabinets are the huge cost for us. When all is said and done, I think we'll have about 40 cabinets between the kitchen, bathrooms, and dining rooms. We went with quartz countertops too which didn't help.

You won't regret it. This your forever home then?

 

[GergreG]

before vinyl got popular, we went with cherry hardwood...... absolute fail

have a rental and went with vinyl, and the tenants moved in a refrigerator with siezed wheels.......... can hardly see the scratches, only if you look at a certain angle and really really look for it. amazing stuff.

I did my own fake grass, calculated that I needed 3 square yards of gravel....... I didnt know what that meant, borrowed a truck...... boy was I in over my head

1 square nearly destroyed the truck, because it was actually a cubic dimension. Secondly, the roll of grass was riduclously big and heavy to haul, but it was too late. I did shave off 4K in labor costs, but damn, it was a lot of work that me and my dad were committed to doing...... a crap ton of work over a few days, and we were done, but wow, who knew it would take so much effort to dig 6" and dispose of the dirt, and why is gravel so damn heavy <45>

I built my fence myself. My neighbours paid a tradie about 8 grand. I bought all the wood and did it myself for about 2 grand. Took me ages but worth it in the end.

 

[Jack Reacheround]

The high interest rates were actually part of not letting the market continue to bubble up until it bursts.

They'll be brought down slowly over time so the economy has sustainable growth and we don't end up in a recession and trying to implement austerity measures that make that recession even worse for the average person trying to get by.

Unless idiots get in charge of the White House and push the fed to slash rates quickly causing a rapid boom followed by a bust.

Yep.
Pretty much this.

 

[Wadtucket]

I don't think we'll see rates below 5% for a long time. I'm not even that old, but I'd consider 6% fairly normal. The <4% was ridiculous.

3 and 4% mortgages are not going to come back in our lifetimes

You can take that to the bank

I also predict the end of the 30 year fixed rate product - it will be aligned with the rest of the world

 

[SakurabasEar]

I think it probably needs to crash. Better than this perpetuated overpricing. But, we're one of quite a few westren countries with housing market issues

 

[mon]

Hard to uave a great reset when the peasantry have the stability of financial security, they tend not to listen to the authorities telling them you'll be happy with nothing

 

[Oblivian]

You won't regret it. This your forever home then?

Maybe, maybe not. We bought at a great time. Even without the renovations, we're currently near triple in value. After the renovations, I'm guessing we'll be in a position of double what we put into it. I'd still move if the right house came on the market. The main downfall with this house is that both baths are downstairs. We toyed with adding one upstairs, but the only location would be an add on. It wasn't worth the cost or trouble.