Prediction - Jones VS Aspinall WON'T happen in 2025

[GearSolidMetal]

Jones has all the leverage in the negotiations.
He's fine with stepping away from the sport at this point.
He has the legit HW belt, and no matter how long the negotiations take Dana will never strip him.

Apparently he wants a HUGE boxing-like payday to fight Aspinall, and the money is his only motivator to fight Aspinall. He has nothing left to prove. He's immune to social pressure.

We're acting like Jones will sign a contract in the spring to fight in the summer, but he wants multiple times more than anyone has ever been paid by the UFC. If he's smart, and say what you want about Jones but he's not stupid, he'll play the long game because the HW division is very weak and there's no one else that is a big name that would attract huge PPV buys. No one in the same ballpark as Jones.

So, I hope I'm wrong, but count on 2026 for this fight, if it happens at all.

Edit - Would like to add there was 19 months between Jones fighting Gane & Stipe, and apparently that was fine with Dana with no temptation to strip Jones of the title because of an injury.
Jones is practically in charge of his own career.
He fights who he wants, when he wants, for as much as he wants... or he's willing to not fight until he gets everything on his terms.
No question he'll be patient to get every dollar he can from this so he can have a lavish retirement.
(I'm not a Jones fan, but I can't begrudge him that. I'd do the same in his situation).

 

[Young Calf Kick]

The ability to price himself out of fights he’s terrified of has always been one of Jones’ greatest strengths.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

The ability to price himself out of fights he’s terrified of has always been one of Jones’ greatest strengths.

Actually no, he fought Gane & Stipe for his contracted amount + PPV points.

If you're referring to Ngannou that's another subject entirely.

 

[World eater]

The UFC should pay some serious money for that fight and generally start paying more. It would be good for the sport long term.

 

[vivi]

lol is this more or less than he asked for to fight Ngannou? We all know how that fight went lol….

 

[MrCoffee]

Jones has studied every detail about Aspinall and is playing the role of someone not on a plan to absolutely check every movement and pattern of his prey.

Whether he beats Aspinall is another story, but Jones is gaining study time.

The longer this plays out, the more I'd give Jones the chance of putting on a play with food until time kinda performance.

 

[jsbx45]

Goddammit stop! Probably right though.. sighs...Jones v Aspinall

Dana could have done Ngannou v Jones 3-4 years ago and it would have been the biggest MMA fight of all time. Now we're having to settle for this and it might not even happen. Sometimes I support Dana, but he pretty much blew it on this one. He left this one slip. Now second fiddle might not happen, at least in a timely manner?

* rolls eyes for drama * this should be the Marquee division. It's heavyweight. It's for all the marbles. UFC is remiss for not making us yearn for title fights in this division.

 

[Pompey Junglist]

The mistake was not stripping Jon of the belt when he got injured after the Gane fight.

 

[TITS]

Then strip him and cancel his contract. He's a bum anyway.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Also agree he’ll get out of it somehow … whether injury or trouble with the law … I agree that the fight won’t happen

It’ll probably get signed to have jones fanboys go nuts … but he won’t get In that cage against him

 

[FreddieRoachsVoice]

Agreed and honestly, I don't care. Jones turns 38 next year, he's only had 2 fights (against cherry picked opponents) in the past 5 years, and he's looked like a shell of himself for nearly a decade. Would him losing to someone really be a surprise anymore?

Seeing him barely scrape by LHW bottom feeders really took the wind out of the sails of his "undefeated" career so tuning in to see if he finally loses is no longer compelling. Jones is rarely a dynamic finisher and fights extremely cautiously so the fight itself will likely not be exciting. What's left to draw me in... his charming personality? His criminal record? His negotiating tactics?

Sorry but this fight doesn't scream Super Fight to me. Jones feels more like a con artist than a professional athlete at this point and his star power has completely waned for me. The sport will be better off when he's gone

 

[Takes Two To Tango]

The mistake was not stripping Jon of the belt when he got injured after the Gane fight.

This is true, it would of forced him to fight Aspinall when he came back healthy.

 

[Question]

I think if it doesn't happen in 2025, it will never happen

 

[whocares]

Pereira/Aspinall is the likely 1B option for the undisputed HW title. Like Jones/Aspinall, it would also be the biggest fight of 2025 and it makes all the sense in the world if they cant get 1A done. It is also a red hot poker they can stick up Jones ass in negotiations. Dana wants this fight (Jones/Aspinall) to happen as much as Jon doesn't. That draws out vindictive, Jones-was-never-my-friend Dana. Not a year from now, more like a couple months. If Jon refuses to come to the table the UFC will have no problem moving forward with another superfight.

I don't see an angle where the UFC will meet his price because I don't think he actually has one. Jones is negotiating not to fight, it's an untenable position to draw out. He's been resolute all along that he's not taking the fight. If he does great, but the incredible back-up option makes Jon expendable. What also makes him expendable is if his asking price for his send off fight ultimately makes his fight with Tom less profitable than Pereira's would be.

Also don't think the UFC has enough real estate left in this saga to ice Tom for more than a year at this point. They would look like absolute shit in doing so when the PR with what they've done at HW the last few years already sucks so much.

 

[Pizza Werewolf]

I just want to see the guy holding up the belt fight the other guy he should already be fighting(the interim champ)
Idgaf if it's Jones or not .

 

[-Sideways-]

Jones chose geriatric Stipe over Aspinall. Highly unlikely this fight takes place.

 

[Poirierfan]

Jones has all the leverage in the negotiations.
He's fine with stepping away from the sport at this point.
He has the legit HW belt, and no matter how long the negotiations take Dana will never strip him.

Apparently he wants a HUGE boxing-like payday to fight Aspinall, and the money is his only motivator to fight Aspinall. He has nothing left to prove. He's immune to social pressure.

We're acting like Jones will sign a contract in the spring to fight in the summer, but he wants multiple times more than anyone has ever been paid by the UFC. If he's smart, and say what you want about Jones but he's not stupid, he'll play the long game because the HW division is very weak and there's no one else that is a big name that would attract huge PPV buys. No one in the same ballpark as Jones.

So, I hope I'm wrong, but count on 2026 for this fight, if it happens at all.

Edit - Would like to add there was 19 months between Jones fighting Gane & Stipe, and apparently that was fine with Dana with no temptation to strip Jones of the title because of an injury.
Jones is practically in charge of his own career.
He fights who he wants, when he wants, for as much as he wants... or he's willing to not fight until he gets everything on his terms.
No question he'll be patient to get every dollar he can from this so he can have a lavish retirement.
(I'm not a Jones fan, but I can't begrudge him that. I'd do the same in his situation).

Your prediction is a lie, the fight not only won't happen in 2025, it's won't happen ever.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Your prediction is a lie, the fight not only won't happen in 2025, it's won't happen ever.

My prediction would still be correct.
I predicted it wouldn't happen in 2025.
I never predicted it'd happen in 2026.

So, I hope I'm wrong, but count on 2026 for this fight, if it happens at all.

 

[IsNormal]

You're probably right.

We've been through this before with the negotiations forr Jon vs Ngannou - and we know UFC were happy to have Jon sit on the bench while negotiating, and let Ngannou leave the UFC, rather than bend to fighter demands.

Jon and his managers also know this so I'm not sure they are serious about wanting 30 mil.
But yeah - they could figure they can afford to wait and pray - or retire if the UFC doesn't budge.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Also, Dana was epicly stupid for saying this in public.