Ciryl Gane vs. Tom Aspinall - Who wins?

[Lionheart7167]

This is an interesting fight for a few reasons.
1. Gane is (technically) the rightful #1 contender, even though a lot of people thought Volkov beat him in their last fight
2. The last two HW champs beat Gane. Jones subbed him easy and Ngannou wrestle-fucked him

I don't think, for those reasons listed above, very many people are excited for this fight
The way I see it, Tom has to win, and has to win impressively, otherwise it gives merit to Jones' argument that Tom isn't what he claimed to be.
Of course we all know that is bullshit. But that becomes the narrative in our clickbait world and especially amongst MMA fans.

If Gane wins, the perception of Tom ends. Right now Tom is viewed as the future of HW, but that will all change. Tom is the guy who couldn't beat the guy that Jones and Ngannou beat. In other words, Jones and Ngannou were the TRUE best and Tom is what Jones said he was all along.

The fight itself isn't super interesting to me (outside of the stand and bang aspect). The narrative though is pretty compelling here.

 

[magpie878]

While I think Aspinall *may* try the same route, via submission... Gane was knocked down and hurt (maybe hurt more than once, it's blurry) vs Tuivasa. If Tuivasa can clock him, I would think Aspinall can. And Gane doesn't/hasn't fought many mobile HWs.. taint gonna be easy vs Aspinall.

 

[Crash Lance]

If Tom takes more than 1 round to beat Gane, then we know he wouldn't beat Jon Jones... Common opponents, mma math in common opponents works almost always. JJ took 3 minutes, right? If Tom takes longer than that, we know he wouldn't beat Jones Bones. I think he can do it within 3 minutes, but I don't think he will. Let's see... Let's see if Tom was really a match for JJ

Jones is currently 38 years old.

I'm rather certain that Jones will never have MMA fights against Tom Aspinall. He's concerned that there's even a slight chance that Tom Aspinall eliminates him. Therefore, Tom Aspinall will have MMA fights against Ciryl, Derrick Lewis, and many other assassins.

In my opinion, you keep supporting Jones like he's actually paying you paychecks in order to defend him.

If Jones isn't paying you paychecks, someone else is.

 

[balkanbomber85]

Gane had not one scary moment while kickboxing with Ngannou, like not one single moment where I feared that Big Frank might do what Big Frank does to everybody else. He outpointed him on the feet and only lost because Big Frank wetblanketed him for some rounds.

So, I dont think that Tom will outbox Gane or even catch him because Gane will be prepared and ready. The one time he ate a punch was when he thought Tuivasa would be too slow. He got overconfident and ate a good shot but still won the fight with no issues.

Tom will have to grapple Gane and hold him against the cage and on the ground and wear him down to win either a decision or maybe get him in some sub. But i would think it will be on points if he can do it.

 

[Ares Black]

I like both guys and TBH I kinda hate this fight. Gane has a decent chance but most likely Aspinall handles him with relative ease on the ground.

 

[Ares Black]

If Tom takes more than 1 round to beat Gane, then we know he wouldn't beat Jon Jones... Common opponents, mma math in common opponents works almost always. JJ took 3 minutes, right? If Tom takes longer than that, we know he wouldn't beat Jones Bones. I think he can do it within 3 minutes, but I don't think he will. Let's see... Let's see if Tom was really a match for JJ

No

 

[TheNewGame]

or maybe get him in some sub. But i would think it will be on points if he can do it.

Aspinall basically has as many subs as he does takedown attempts. Submitted Volkov and Arlovski with ease. He's gonna bully Gane on the ground.

 

[KungFuCow]

If Tom takes more than 1 round to beat Gane, then we know he wouldn't beat Jon Jones... Common opponents, mma math in common opponents works almost always. JJ took 3 minutes, right? If Tom takes longer than that, we know he wouldn't beat Jones Bones. I think he can do it within 3 minutes, but I don't think he will. Let's see... Let's see if Tom was really a match for JJ

Guess Jon better stay away from LHW then because Jan, Jiri and Ryan Spann all KO'd Reyes while Jonnyboy had to go to a decision that we all know he lost.

 

[pistolmayne]

Gane has no ground game and got hurt badly by Tuivasa. Tom can hurt

I see your point, but so can Francis, and he struggled to touch Gane with much of anything standing. I’m actually not a fan of Gane but when he is having a good night I think he stands with anyone.

 

[Doughie99]

This is pretty much the fight that the UFC will match up now that Jon Jones retired.

Who do you think wins this?

What's gane gonna do to win this? Submit ASPINALL???? lol
Nothing other than catching Aspinall with a fortunate shot.

This fight ends quite fast in rd.1 prob via submission.
Aspinall is that quite rare thing: a heavyweight who is very good at bjj and submissions.

And how long did Gane last against Jones???
Subbed in about 2mins or so.

Same here, or quicker most likely.

 

[Tweak896]

The "hate" comes from the third ts he got after failing the first two times in an embarassing way and winning his last fight by robbery.

People that overrate him and look at him as a real threat to Tom or Jones also don't help.

Fighting Gane today is imho just record padding for Tom.

I mean, I think Gane is the best striker Aspinall stands with, if he ends up doing so. Also one of the few real HWs Aspinall hasn't beat. Still whatever people are saying about Gane's grappling, he had more control time than Volkov in 2/3 round with more sub attempts. That was with with Gane having a bad injury. Not to mention Gane and Volkov are both strikers, but Gane beat Volkov standing the first fight and turned him into a wrestler the 2nd and still won both in the records. So I hope anyone crying about Volkov not getting a titleshot aren't the same ones crying about Gane getting a titleshot.

If you are saying Gane had 2 embarrassing title shot performances he almost beat Ngannou, and many still argued he won. You can't say Ngannou was injured for that fight but Gane wasn't for the Volkov rematch.

Now I am pretty sick of the UFC giving the same guys title shots, even after losing them. But this isn't a Colby tier gift, Gane still has 2 wins since his last failed titleshot. And gives Aspinall his biggest payday besides Pereira, who isn't a HW. I would've been fine with either Almeida or Gane.

It'll be funny if Gane wins or ends up winning the standup against Aspinall, or ends up defending Aspinall takedowns. Any in Aspinall's armor basically ruins the invincibility notion.

 

[magpie878]

Wasn't Gane hurt during the fight? Ngannou f'ed up his knee before it and supposedly almost had to pull out. And when your gameplan is a standing slugfest, that's a pretty important body part. So he went the lay and pray route. I wouldn't compare that at all to Gane's situation.

 

[Luffy]

Jones is currently 38 years old.

I'm rather certain that Jones will never have MMA fights against Tom Aspinall. He's concerned that there's even a slight chance that Tom Aspinall eliminates him. Therefore, Tom Aspinall will have MMA fights against Ciryl, Derrick Lewis, and many other assassins.

In my opinion, you keep supporting Jones like he's actually paying you paychecks in order to defend him.

If Jones isn't paying you paychecks, someone else is.

Whether it's JJ or Pereira, idk. But one of them is fighting Tom. Remember that Pereira was introduced as "the one and only" when fighting Ank for the first time. JJ may very well have closed his chapter vs Miocic. But Pereira is more motivated than Tom. Alex said he feels like fighting every month if the UFC would let him. If you look at Tom, he isn't with this energy you think he is. If you watched his interviews, you'd see him saying "I'm closer to the end of my career". "I won't fight much more because I don't want to have cognitive problems like guys who push too much". That's all said by Tom. Alex Pereira will fight Ankalaev and he'll fight at HW too. Remember he started mma late, so he hasn't so much wear and tear. He's way more motivated than Tom as he's saying "I can fight whenever the UFC wants me to" vs Tom's "I'm closer to the end of my career". About fearing losses, Tom does too. He literally said "my biggest fear is being KO'd with thousands of people seeing. If anyone says they aren't afraid of losing in front of a crowd, they are a liar".

The reality is different than what you'd like to imagine. Alex at 38 yo is way more active than Tom (fought 4x in a year while Tom fought one), is willing to fight whoever, not afraid of losing unlike Tom. And Dana said he has gotten into contact with Tom and Alex and that Alex wants to fight Tom and anyone. Tom unlike Pereira, said " I don't know, maybe I'll fight Alex Pereira, but I don't think about big legacy fights that much"... Recently in a podcast he said " Alex Pereira is one of the most dangerous fighters to ever fight in the UFC" ... So whoever he fights in HW that is not Alex Pereira, isn't assassin's like you say. They are a shallow division with Gane being #1 contender. Tom himself rated Gane and Volkov as 8.5 while he rated Alex as 9.5 in terms of danger... So, again, look into his channel and interviews so you know what you're talking about. I'm literally spewing facts, you're pretending you know something you don't.

 

[Luffy]

Guess Jon better stay away from LHW then because Jan, Jiri and Ryan Spann all KO'd Reyes while Jonnyboy had to go to a decision that we all know he lost.

Which is why I say LHW >>> HWs in terms of danger. Specially LHWs who are elite ones and can make HW weight. For instance, Alex Pereira is lean and fit at 243 lbs and even fighting in this new breed of LHWs with Jiri, Hill, Rountree, Ankalaev, Jan... He wasn't dominated in a single fight. His only loss was vs Ankalaev while injured. Which shows he's way more dangerous than HWs who lack the same talented pool LHWs do. DDP even said that "JJ is the best specially in HW, because HWs lack the same skill set lower classes do. With JJ retiring, there isn't a HW that would challenge Tom imo, unless LHWs that are elite go up". Tom admitted Gane and Volkov are <<< Alex Pereira in terms of danger they represent to him.

 

[Elvis.]

Tom subs him

 

[Luffy]

Tom said Gane is an 8 and Alex is a 9.5 ... Tom must sub him in 1 round otherwise he wouldn't stand a chance vs JJ or Alex Pereira, unfortunately... Even Tom said he sees JJ and Alex as equally dangerous in the podcast with Logan Paul...

 

[Rampage_Jackson]

While I think Aspinall *may* try the same route, via submission... Gane was knocked down and hurt (maybe hurt more than once, it's blurry) vs Tuivasa. If Tuivasa can clock him, I would think Aspinall can. And Gane doesn't/hasn't fought many mobile HWs.. taint gonna be easy vs Aspinall.

Tom is an infinitely more effective striker. Gane's only hope on the feet would be to quite literally run for his life

 

[Luffy]

It's interesting because when JJ struggled with Reyes (he still best him fair and square, but it was a very tough win) and Jiri KO'd Reyes in round 2... All this forum here would be saying that Jiri Prochazka would beat JJ or that Jiri vs JJ should be the fight. And it'd be a big challenge. I doubt anyone here would bet on JJ besting Jiri twice both times in 2 rounds. If the odds were made for JJ vs Jiri back then, they'd (and did actually) reflect a similar scenario to Jon Jones vs Tom now in bulldog... JJ was seen as a slight favourite but something like 52/48, ~ same odds they had for JJ vs Tom (which is the best odds wise as they are made by analysts, not fans money). Jiri was in the same spot as Tom, except he was a legend in rizin and had a more impressive performance vs the same opponent Jones face, which we will see now with Tom vs Gane.

Alex best Jiri twice both in 2 rounds TKO... Yet people think HWs are a bigger challenge to someone who was seen as 50/50 with JJ now at 38 yo, than the one who beat Jiri twice dominantly (Alex), despite Jiri being in the same spot Tom is now in terms of speculation. Which shows how "" consistent "" fans are. They think JJ was afraid of Tom when Jon Jones vs Stipe was said to be JJ last dance many times, over and over... And the "duck play" from Jones being a way to set the scenario for someone who's hyped like Jiri Prochazka was back then, without needing to fight him, with the fight being nothing more than a way to keep fans engaged while the UFC leveraged the JJ aura to play with people — oh that's the first time Jon Jones was seen avoiding a fight, this guy must be a beast!! .... Alex Pereira is "the one and only" now, Tom will have a super fight, but Jon Jones has made it clear he isn't interested besides Stipe. The new era now is Pereira, Ankalaev, Tom Aspinall... Jon Jones was more like mentioning Alex, Ankalaev and Tom to set the stage for the new era, as JJ couldn't have made it clear his fight vs Stipe was his last dance. The UFC knew, but keeping it as a hanging rumor is profitable. Tom himself said "I know what's going on, but I can't say anything"... Why? Because if he said he would not fight Jon Jones, which he knew from the start, ppl would lose interest... I believe though that when Jones talked about Alex, it was sincere, he saw Alex — and still does — as a threat to his goat status, as if Alex gets a third belt, then having defeated 6 world champions and getting 3 belts from MW to HW would be temptation to lure his competitive drive.

That's why Jones laughed as soon as Ankalaev beat Alex... He didn't need to fight anymore. Tom was anxious analysing Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira because he knows Alex is a future opponent. He was training with a kickboxer from Glory for a long while, he has the Brazilian vs UK flag in his gym... The fact he is choosing to face Gane firstly is already odd, as even though unlikely, losing to Cyril Gane would be wayyy worse than losing to Pereira. The fact he wants to face Gane of all ppl (Gane who didn't even call Aspinall and does a terrible job at promoting) instead of welcoming Pereira is telling already... He fears Alex Pereira, who he seems as the biggest challenge to him. Ankalaev himself said Alex is on a different level from Tom in his X account in the UK UFC when Tom was with that duck toy on camera. Ank said "Tom Jon ... Alex is on a different level from these guys now. " ... He's even mad with Alex possibly going to HW, with Ali saying Pereira is ducking Ankalaev by going to HW either he forgot Ankalaev has the belt or somehow Pereira took the belt from Ank off camera...

 

[jsbx45]

G9ddamn we need some new talent at HW. Cyril's new name should be re-run.

 

[Vehap1]

Yeah the Gane hate came directly after the Jones fight. It's so bizarre to constantly defend the guy. I don't even like him as a fighter, but he's more well rounded than people think. Unless he's perma compromised from his bad injury, he is going to surprise alot of people.

He lost to Volkov as well