Yes I say 1st round sub is most likely OR Tom may just knock him down and then finish with his fists. He can do both.
Enf of the day, Tom has elite BJJ to fall back on even if things aren't working out. He can trip people and then pound them or sub them.
Volkov fight is worth watching again....
I suppose it IS possible that Aspinall COULD run into cardio problems IF AN OPPONENT can actually get the fight into rds 3or 4 or 5 but absolutely nobody has managed that whatsoever.
If an opponent can connect a hard shot on Tom's face of chin, then yes he COULD go down or be in trouble but the dude is just very fast and tends to see shots coming.
I think Aspinall's skills are simply TOO wide-ranging for 98% of HW opponents.
PICK
Aspinall wins at 2m37secs of rd.1 via head-and-arm choke.
(You can all have a laugh if I got it horribly wrong, I really don't mind!!)