Aspinall won't make it out of the second round.

TBH, Pavlovich faceplanted him in R1

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Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

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You are right.



lol no you weren't
 
Why? I said Aspinall was better everywhere but it was bad matchup and I still think it was.

I think he will be extremely hard to beat.
Nah.
You said
"His tendency to keep his chin up and hands down is a huge liablity against an accurate power puncher with a 6" reach advantage over him.

And I would think Aspinall will be hesitant to leg kick after his injury".
 
That sucks. I thought the war room was fair game - as in - say whatever you like!
No, although they do allow “light flaming.” But there are certain things (calls for death or genocide, blatant racism or antisemitism, etc) that won’t fly in the WR.

In the OT, most anything goes. But no one posts in the OT anymore.
 
Nah.
You said
"His tendency to keep his chin up and hands down is a huge liablity against an accurate power puncher with a 6" reach advantage over him.

And I would think Aspinall will be hesitant to leg kick after his injury".
Well read it again (and the one I was replying to), brather...

And yes he keeps his chin up and got tagged pretty bad early.
And I am very glad he won. My fav UFC HW, especially since Gane ducked him.
 
No, although they do allow “light flaming.” But there are certain things (calls for death or genocide, blatant racism or antisemitism, etc) that won’t fly in the WR.

In the OT, most anything goes. But no one posts in the OT anymore.
What is the OT?
 
Very true sir.
I've eaten many a crow myself, at least you have a good attitude about it.
Many here don't possess such qualities lol.
Hey I have to admit when I am wrong and I have no issue with that. I picked Sergei trying to use my own logic and it didn’t turn out it was right. Always learning something and will continue to learn. I like Tom and he looks like he has a chance to knock off some wins defending the title. I would favor Jones vs him but I wouldn’t dismiss Tom from not having a chance. I would slightly favor jones if they were to fight. I’d much rather see that fight that fight than jon fight stipe.
 
I called this one as it went. As much as I wanted Sergei to win, huge fan, I suspected the hand speed early would be his demise. I knew Tom would have that advantage early in the fight before Sergei gets set and he took advantage. And from what we saw, Sergei look pretty dam good too and in top shape, he was pretty fluid and quick.
 
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Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).

If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.

Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.

With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.

Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.

DQX2GC3UYJLXBG2PL3JCF4RWXA.jpg

Is this the part where you insert your foot into your mouth?
 
Hey I have to admit when I am wrong and I have no issue with that. I picked Sergei trying to use my own logic and it didn’t turn out it was right. Always learning something and will continue to learn. I like Tom and he looks like he has a chance to knock off some wins defending the title. I would favor Jones vs him but I wouldn’t dismiss Tom from not having a chance. I would slightly favor jones if they were to fight. I’d much rather see that fight that fight than jon fight stipe.

You're a good man sir.
I would also rather see Tom vs Jon myself.
 
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