Tom is a legit prospect but this is too much too soon for him. He has only faced one elite striker before, Volkov, and he did run through Volkov with a quick submission, to give him credit, but the threat Sergei poses on the feet is next level. Volkov is a gangly striker who likes to kick and punch from range and doesn't have much of a grappling game (although he has improved that side of things since they fought.) Sergei is 4" shorter while just as heavy, has 4" longer reach than Volkov and 6" longer than Tom, and just TKOed the best wrestler in the division in the first round (the same one Aspinall wrecked his knee on).
If that's what Pav did to Blaydes how do you think Aspinall is going to take him down? Don't even underestimate Sergei's grappling, he started training wrestling at 5 and has been working hard on it.
Tom is 2" taller and one year younger than Sergei. They are about the same weight. He is a talented athlete, fast despite his size and with dynamic striking but also with a very legit sub game. He has never had a fight get out of the second round as he has explosive striking with both accuracy and power, however he also has effective take downs and can finish quickly on the ground as well. I am in no way underestimating Aspinall's talent.
With that being said I don't think even Aspinall's biggest fan thinks he can win this fight standing. His gameplan is obviously going to be to survive on the feet long enough to get to the clinch or takedown. Easier said than done - 2018 Overeem finished Sergei with ground strikes but Aspinall isn't 2018 Overeem and Sergei has evolved since then.
Pav has exceptional MMA boxing - hand speed, accuracy, volume, pressure, power, timing, intelligent combinations, his management of distance plus his freakish reach - he scores highly in all categories and is almost impossible to prepare for. We haven't seen a lot of his grappling in the UFC because no one has been able to impose it on him and Aspinall will be no exception. Tom is no dunce on the feet and his size, speed and athleticism will buy him a little time but once Pav starts zeroing in and those accurate combos start landing Tom won't be able to handle it, he will crumble quickly. Sergei Pavlovich TKO in either the first or second round.
