Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev (Observations)

[Arm Barbarian]

The biggest factor to me will be whether Ank can utilize his wrestling enough to stifle Alex's offense.

Whether he can smother him enough to keep it ugly.

If he does the wet blanket thing with success, he has a good chance.

If Alex is able to shuck him off and his TDD is on point, I see him chewing up Ankalaev with leg attacks and likely finding his chin before the final round.

 

[Edward Henry Berg]

You may have anger issues or just be terminally weird. Either way, this type of behavior with strangers on the internet is not healthy for you.

I definitely have anger issues, but you are the one who's terminally weird.
(The very fact you identify with the awkward-idiot, Nick Diaz, proves this.)

Wake up genius

The entire fighting universe recognizes the fact Alex Pereira = Big for The Weight.

The fact you can't clearly see this indicates you're blind too.

 

[HHJ]

Alex is usually bigger than his opponents.

 

[Kwic]

The outcome I won't survive if Analaev stops Poatan via strikes. I may cry a little if he knocks him out.
I hope Alex knocks him out silly and I don't dislike Ankalaev. He started talking shit because he needed to. Love Alex, though.

 

[Edward Henry Berg]

The outcome I won't survive if Analaev stops Poatan via strikes. I may cry a little if he knocks him out.
I hope Alex knocks him out silly and I don't dislike Ankalaev. He started talking shit because he needed to. Love Alex, though.

Anything's possible, but that outcome sure isn't probable.

Ank was getting murdered by Jan on the feet, and had to resort to grappling. He sure isn't going to murder Alex on the feet.

However, anyone can get caught, but the most likely individual to get caught is going to be Ankalaev — harder, and better-timed, than anything he's ever faced before.

Alex has faced better strikers than Ankalaev, while Ankalaev has never faced anyone remotely in Alex Pereira's league as a striker.

 

[jeff7b9]

STFU, you are the one who has never competed in shit.

Get your shovel ready to eat your words, and get out from behind your computer.

Jan is a fat, pudgy guy with a high body-fat count.

Nont uhhh

 

[AL-Tappo McSnappo]

So I just finished re-watching Ankalaev vs. Rakic, and then I re-watched the Jan Błachowicz x Magomed Ankalaev fight.

After that, I re-watched Alex Pereira fight Jan Błachowicz ... in what was arguably Alex' worst performance @ LHW.

The first thing that jumped out is Ankalaev looked smaller than Jan Błachowicz, while Pereira made Błachowicz look like a bloated midget.

• Alex Pereira is going to dwarf Magomed Ankalaev in the cage.

Forget the tale of the tape, Alex will TOWER over Magomed.

To Ankalaev's credit, he appears sturdy, fluid with his punches, lets his hands go with impunity, and seems very relaxed in the cage. At least against Rakic.

However ... while against Rakic, Ankalaev was definitely the aggressor — because Rakic offered NO THREAT and was always moving, backing-up, yielding — this was because (while bigger than Ankalaev), Rakic had no power to hold Ankalaev back.

By contrast, against Błachowicz, Ankalaev was much more cautious ... it was actually Jan Błachowicz who was the aggressor, with Magomed backing up, countering "with speed," but was constantly "holding back," not putting much power or staying in the pocket.
Ankalaev was much more cautious with Błachowicz' power. Błachowicz was also much more effective than Rakic in smashing Ankalaev's calves.

Yet, when facing Alex Pereira, it was Błachowicz, who was always yielding, moving backward. It was Błachowicz, who was getting his legs smashed-in.

He couldn't deal with Alex on the feet.

I like Alex like everyone else, but i guarantee you Ank will win

85% of the Błachowicz fight was Alex Pereira "hunting" Jan Błachowicz ... yet 85% of the Ankalaev fight, it was Jan "hunting" Magomed.

Obviously, anything can happen in a fight.

But it was clear to me that Magomed Ankalaev looked small compared to Jan Błachowicz ... and was continuously cautious of Jan's power ... while Jan Błachowicz is the one who looked small against Alex Pereira ... and was continuously cautious of Alex' power.

MMA Math? Maybe.

But I think Magomed is going to appear dwarfed by Alex, when they actually get in the cage together, and if he was cautious about Jan's leg kicks and power, he's going to find himself in a world of pain from Alex' leg kicks and power.

Thoughts?

 

[hector domino]

So I just finished re-watching Ankalaev vs. Rakic, and then I re-watched the Jan Błachowicz x Magomed Ankalaev fight.

After that, I re-watched Alex Pereira fight Jan Błachowicz ... in what was arguably Alex' worst performance @ LHW.

The first thing that jumped out is Ankalaev looked smaller than Jan Błachowicz, while Pereira made Błachowicz look like a bloated midget.

• Alex Pereira is going to dwarf Magomed Ankalaev in the cage.

Forget the tale of the tape, Alex will TOWER over Magomed.

To Ankalaev's credit, he appears sturdy, fluid with his punches, lets his hands go with impunity, and seems very relaxed in the cage. At least against Rakic.

However ... while against Rakic, Ankalaev was definitely the aggressor — because Rakic offered NO THREAT and was always moving, backing-up, yielding — this was because (while bigger than Ankalaev), Rakic had no power to hold Ankalaev back.

By contrast, against Błachowicz, Ankalaev was much more cautious ... it was actually Jan Błachowicz who was the aggressor, with Magomed backing up, countering "with speed," but was constantly "holding back," not putting much power or staying in the pocket.
Ankalaev was much more cautious with Błachowicz' power. Błachowicz was also much more effective than Rakic in smashing Ankalaev's calves.

Yet, when facing Alex Pereira, it was Błachowicz, who was always yielding, moving backward. It was Błachowicz, who was getting his legs smashed-in.

He couldn't deal with Alex on the feet.

85% of the Błachowicz fight was Alex Pereira "hunting" Jan Błachowicz ... yet 85% of the Ankalaev fight, it was Jan "hunting" Magomed.

Obviously, anything can happen in a fight.

But it was clear to me that Magomed Ankalaev looked small compared to Jan Błachowicz ... and was continuously cautious of Jan's power ... while Jan Błachowicz is the one who looked small against Alex Pereira ... and was continuously cautious of Alex' power.

MMA Math? Maybe.

But I think Magomed is going to appear dwarfed by Alex, when they actually get in the cage together, and if he was cautious about Jan's leg kicks and power, he's going to find himself in a world of pain from Alex' leg kicks and power.

Thoughts?

I also have an observation that If a guy with middling wrestling like Jan could takedown and control Alex while JAN HIMSELF got taken down and controlled by Magomed once he started to wrestle it a no contest. So I think Alex would be in even greater trouble because of his lack of wrestling. imo Ank is not as helpless on the feet(though still in grave danger) as Alex is on the ground(taken down and held down an entire round by fricking adesanya of all people) It goes like.
Striking: Alex:10/10 Ankalaev7/10
Wrestling Alex 3/10 Ankalaev 8/10

According to my calculations 13 vs 15 = a hard fought fight but Ank winning on decision with his wrestling. Ofcourse if he is smart enough to start wrestling before losing 3 rounds or before KO

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I also have an observation that If a guy with middling wrestling like Jan could takedown and control Alex while JAN HIMSELF got taken down and controlled by Magomed once he started to wrestle it a no contest. So I think Alex would be in even greater trouble because of his lack of wrestling. imo Ank is not as helpless on the feet(though still in grave danger) as Alex is on the ground(taken down and held down an entire round by fricking adesanya of all people) It goes like.
Striking: Alex:10/10 Ankalaev7/10
Wrestling Alex 3/10 Ankalaev 8/10

According to my calculations 13 vs 15 = a hard fought fight but Ank winning on decision with his wrestling. Ofcourse if he is smart enough to start wrestling before losing 3 rounds or before KO

Excellent post.

I was going to jump in with the that same aspect of MMA-Math, which is Jan was able to immediately takedown and control Poatan/get his back and Ank is a far superior wrestler/grappler to Jan and was able to take him down and control him after getting his legs kicked to pieces for half the fight. Now to be fair Jan was tired by the point the wrestling/grappling got initiated, but we can't excuse Poatan's technical flaws as "a bad performance" or some other flawed logic. He got taken down multiple times by Bruno Silva, he took himself down against Izzy and couldn't get up (and Izzy is a skinny MW that has never shown good offensive grappling otherwise outside of sub-hunting Gastelum after rocking him) - ultimately he's not some next-level wrestler/grappler even with improvements. Seems like the biggest steps up he made were improving his patience and sub-defense in scrambling and against Jiri in the first fight (another poor wrestler/grappler that relies on athleticism) he was able to get-up after a couple minutes while minimizing damage from GnP.

There are multiple questions to answer in this fight besides the wreslting/grappling - Poatan doesn't do great against southpaws, he was getting lit up by Roundtree early and often with blitzing straight lefts from a guy much shorter with less reach that telegraphs his set-ups far more. If Ank actually threatens level-changes does it cause Poatan to be reactive and stifle his aggression? Will Ank just concede letting Poatan pressure him and chop his calves to pieces? Or with the experience from the Jan fight will he look to counter aggression with his own aggression and collapse the pocket?

Ank's never been KO'd, only subbed last-second by a Hail Mary triangle, only really been clipped up hard with punches once or twice (Santos flash knockdown, think Krylov might've tagged him up in some wild brawling exchanges while mixing in wrestling/grappling attacks early).

Too many people just assume "Poatan is a better striker so if Ank strikes he's fucked" but if Ank actually uses a mixed approach by showing wrestling set-ups, feinting, clinch-fighting, it could do a lot to shut-down Poatan's aggression and ability to just decimate him with kicks without repercussion.

There is a reason the betting lines are coin-flip when most fans nut-hug Poatan and hate Ank, it's because betting sharps realize how many problems Ank poses if he actually implements the correct game-plan and in probably his only chance to win the title if he doesn't it would be an obscene mistake.

It doesn't mean he can't get knocked out or his legs chewed up, but if he actually does come correct to this fight it could shut-down a lot of Poatan's game and make this a hell of a fight.

 

[World eater]

I also have an observation that If a guy with middling wrestling like Jan could takedown and control Alex while JAN HIMSELF got taken down and controlled by Magomed once he started to wrestle it a no contest. So I think Alex would be in even greater trouble because of his lack of wrestling. imo Ank is not as helpless on the feet(though still in grave danger) as Alex is on the ground(taken down and held down an entire round by fricking adesanya of all people) It goes like.
Striking: Alex:10/10 Ankalaev7/10
Wrestling Alex 3/10 Ankalaev 8/10

According to my calculations 13 vs 15 = a hard fought fight but Ank winning on decision with his wrestling. Ofcourse if he is smart enough to start wrestling before losing 3 rounds or before KO

If Ank can grapple a guy as big and strong as Alex for 5 rounds, I will be truly impressed.

 

[hector domino]

If Ank can grapple a guy as big and strong as Alex for 5 rounds, I will be truly impressed.

its less size and more skill. Ankalaev would be out of it if he had to wrestle someone smaller but more skilled like Khamzat but with Alex's non existent wrestling he would just float around effortlessly while Alex would be fighting life and death for a chance at an escape likely with poor leverage and is likely to gas out. On another note I believe Khamzat is a worse matchup for ALex as he likely subs him in the first(or get KOd if he cant finish in first round blitz) while Ank has not much for submissions

 

[moreorless87]

The biggest factor to me will be whether Ank can utilize his wrestling enough to stifle Alex's offense.

Whether he can smother him enough to keep it ugly.

If he does the wet blanket thing with success, he has a good chance.

If Alex is able to shuck him off and his TDD is on point, I see him chewing up Ankalaev with leg attacks and likely finding his chin before the final round.

I feel like a big factor with that as well is can he either finish Alexs on the ground or can be control him for much of the fight?

Theres a big difference between going really strong for the takedown in Rd 1 and getting a good deal of control and being able to keep up that pace. I would argue Jan vs Alexs basically gassed himself out pushing hard for the takedown in RD 1, he won the round but it cost him the fight.

Ank's nature to me doesnt seem to be along those lines, he does naturally seem to be a careful fighter who'll be aware of the potential for gassing out so I do kind of suspect it will be more him enguaging Alex standing thinking he can time the odd takedown and suppress Alexs offence by the threat of it. Trouble is though Ank isnt really that dramatic a wrestler, he's no GSP were he's going to blast for a double leg the moment Alex looks to throw a lowkick.

I have a feeling this may go a lot like his fight with Jan but against Alex he'll get his legs beaten up worse and then he'll potentially be finished late.