Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread v4

[sickc0d3r]

Yeah, the generational aspect is THE prevailing narrative in the Democratic primary imo: whether a candidate favored by voters <35 (Sanders or Warren) can finally prevail over a candidate preferred by fucking Boomers (Biden or Buttigieg). Or whether, instead, we in fact move backwards to the most relatively conservative and unpopular with young voters Democratic candidate since....shit, Jimmy Carter I guess?

The changing of the guard will happen, and it can easily happen this year.

 

[Sano]

It took President Trump less than two days to raise $13 million.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...er-pelosi-impeachment-announcement-2019-09-26

While Bernie's accomplishment is worth noting, it's hardly game-changing.

Apples to oranges comparison but @method115 and @sickc0d3r already mentioned why. Add to that it was Trump AND the RNC.

 

[Trotsky]

The changing of the guard will happen, and it can easily happen this year.

I sure fucking hope so. Because Sanders and Warren are too damn old to run again, and there really isn't anyone to take their mantle. And Buttigieg is probably going to be an ambitious force for the centrists for years to come.

 

[method115]

Add to that it was Trump AND the RNC.

I didn't even know it was the RNC as well.

 

[Phisher]

Well Bernie won the 3 states that gave the election to Trump by a few thousand votes, so I’m pretty sure a lot of those Obama voters that stayed home supported Bernie.

This has been examined in detail. Most of the Bernie-or-bust Sanders primary voters weren't even Democrats. They were Republicans and independents who supported Bernie in open primary states. Also, that percentage of crossover voting is normal. In 2008, 25% of Clinton primary voters and 9% percent of Obama primary voters went to McCain.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

The only reason that it was that close in the swing states was because six million registered Democrats who voted for Obama in 2012 went to Trump.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...crats-can-win-back-obama-trump-voters-in-2020

...and a disproportionate number of the Obama voters who stayed home were black, a demographic that barely supported Sanders in 2008.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...home-in-2016-more-than-a-third-of-them-black/


I'm sorry, but trying to blame Sanders for Hillary's loss is ridiculous. She ran a terrible campaign, and the Obama coalition turned on her as a result. This constant harping on a much smaller number of people who weren't traditional Democratic voters going third party or for Trump is a form of pathology.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Yeah, it's weird to me how this concept - enthusiasm over broader palatability - is still so utterly ignored by so many Democrats/voters.

I don't think it's ignored, exactly. It's not clear that this framework is good. Among people who report enthusiasm *only* about their first choice, it's Bernie 51%, Biden 45%, and no one else even close. But most voters say that they are enthusiastic about several candidates. One also has to wonder about the precedent involved in allowing the most unreasonable, obnoxious fan base pick the nominee on the basis of that fanaticism.

 

[Sano]

This has been examined in detail. Most of the Bernie-or-bust Sanders primary voters weren't even Democrats. They were Republicans and independents who supported Bernie in open primary states. Also, that percentage of crossover voting is normal. In 2008, 25% of Clinton primary voters and 9% percent of Obama primary voters went to McCain.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

The only reason that it was that close in the swing states was because six million registered Democrats who voted for Obama in 2012 went to Trump.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...crats-can-win-back-obama-trump-voters-in-2020

...and a disproportionate number of the Obama voters who stayed home were black, a demographic that barely supported Sanders in 2008.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...home-in-2016-more-than-a-third-of-them-black/


I'm sorry, but trying to blame Sanders for Hillary's loss is ridiculous. She ran a terrible campaign, and the Obama coalition turned on her as a result. This constant harping on a much smaller number of people who weren't traditional Democratic voters going third party or for Trump is a form of pathology.

Great writeup, I was about to post something similar.

 

[Trotsky]

I don't think it's ignored, exactly. It's not clear that this framework is good. Among people who report enthusiasm *only* about their first choice, it's Bernie 51%, Biden 45%, and no one else even close. But most voters say that they are enthusiastic about several candidates. One also has to wonder about the precedent involved in allowing the most unreasonable, obnoxious fan base pick the nominee on the basis of that fanaticism.

One could also articulate enthusiasm without randomly equating it to unreasonable or obnoxious behavior. On predicting how durable and self-perpetuating support is, I think amount of individual donations and, specifically, amount of repeat individual donations, as well as amount of volunteer hours logged, would be as good of metrics as any....and don't have much to do with being unreasonable or obnoxious.

 

[sickc0d3r]

This has been examined in detail. Most of the Bernie-or-bust Sanders primary voters weren't even Democrats. They were Republicans and independents who supported Bernie in open primary states. Also, that percentage of crossover voting is normal. In 2008, 25% of Clinton primary voters and 9% percent of Obama primary voters went to McCain.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

The only reason that it was that close in the swing states was because six million registered Democrats who voted for Obama in 2012 went to Trump.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...crats-can-win-back-obama-trump-voters-in-2020

...and a disproportionate number of the Obama voters who stayed home were black, a demographic that barely supported Sanders in 2008.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...home-in-2016-more-than-a-third-of-them-black/


I'm sorry, but trying to blame Sanders for Hillary's loss is ridiculous. She ran a terrible campaign, and the Obama coalition turned on her as a result. This constant harping on a much smaller number of people who weren't traditional Democratic voters going third party or for Trump is a form of pathology.

I'm not blaming Sanders or his voters, I blame Hillary. Anyway, your first link says 12% of Bernie supporters went to Trump. Are you saying they weren't really Bernie supporters, or that they didn't matter because some Obama supporters also voted for Trump? Either way, my point was that the idea that blaming centrists doesn't make any more sense than blaming progressives. The election was so close that if every vote that went to Jill Stein in those 3 states had gone to Hillary, she would have won. Let's blame Jill!

 

[xcvbn]

This has been examined in detail. Most of the Bernie-or-bust Sanders primary voters weren't even Democrats. They were Republicans and independents who supported Bernie in open primary states. Also, that percentage of crossover voting is normal. In 2008, 25% of Clinton primary voters and 9% percent of Obama primary voters went to McCain.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

The only reason that it was that close in the swing states was because six million registered Democrats who voted for Obama in 2012 went to Trump.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...crats-can-win-back-obama-trump-voters-in-2020

...and a disproportionate number of the Obama voters who stayed home were black, a demographic that barely supported Sanders in 2008.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...home-in-2016-more-than-a-third-of-them-black/


I'm sorry, but trying to blame Sanders for Hillary's loss is ridiculous. She ran a terrible campaign, and the Obama coalition turned on her as a result. This constant harping on a much smaller number of people who weren't traditional Democratic voters going third party or for Trump is a form of pathology.

Thank you for dispelling the establishment Dem absurdities

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

I'm not blaming Sanders or his voters, I blame Hillary. Anyway, your first link says 12% of Bernie supporters went to Trump. Are you saying they weren't really Bernie supporters, or that they didn't matter because some Obama supporters also voted for Trump? Either way, my point was that the idea that blaming centrists doesn't make any more sense than blaming progressives. The election was so close that if every vote that went to Jill Stein in those 3 states had gone to Hillary, she would have won. Let's blame Jill!

And obviously the big elephant in the room was Giuliani loyalists in the FBI leaking him intel which forced Comey to publicly acknowledge they were looking into Hillary again days before the election

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[method115]

I completely forgot this women was still in the race.

 

[sickc0d3r]

And obviously the big elephant in the room was Giuliani loyalists in the FBI leaking him intel which forced Comey to publicly acknowledge they were looking into Hillary again days before the election

That was dirty, but it only worked because of people who are also dumb enough to believe she may have been a devil worshiper who ran a ring from a pizza parlor. Truth is probably she was just unlikable like that.

 

[kpt018]

This has been examined in detail. Most of the Bernie-or-bust Sanders primary voters weren't even Democrats. They were Republicans and independents who supported Bernie in open primary states. Also, that percentage of crossover voting is normal. In 2008, 25% of Clinton primary voters and 9% percent of Obama primary voters went to McCain.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study

The only reason that it was that close in the swing states was because six million registered Democrats who voted for Obama in 2012 went to Trump.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...crats-can-win-back-obama-trump-voters-in-2020

...and a disproportionate number of the Obama voters who stayed home were black, a demographic that barely supported Sanders in 2008.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...home-in-2016-more-than-a-third-of-them-black/


I'm sorry, but trying to blame Sanders for Hillary's loss is ridiculous. She ran a terrible campaign, and the Obama coalition turned on her as a result. This constant harping on a much smaller number of people who weren't traditional Democratic voters going third party or for Trump is a form of pathology.

It’s worth harping on imo. An intelligent person who understands what Bernie stood for and is all about cannot possibly support Trump. People who made that switch are about the cult of personality and not policy, fairness or even basic decency.

 

[method115]

That was dirty, but it only worked because of people who are also dumb enough to believe she may have been a devil worshiper who ran a ring from a pizza parlor. Truth is probably she was just unlikable like that.

I disagree here. A pizza ring from emails people are trying to pull clues from and devil worshiping which I dont' even know where people got that. Those two things are not in the same league as the head of the FBI going on national television to state they are reopening an investigation into you because of classified emails found on another laptop.

 

[Phisher]

I'm not blaming Sanders or his voters, I blame Hillary. Anyway, your first link says 12% of Bernie supporters went to Trump. Are you saying they weren't really Bernie supporters, or that they didn't matter because some Obama supporters also voted for Trump? Either way, my point was that the idea that blaming centrists doesn't make any more sense than blaming progressives. The election was so close that if every vote that went to Jill Stein in those 3 states had gone to Hillary, she would have won. Let's blame Jill!

Sorry, that was the wrong link. I meant to post this one.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...vote-what-does-that-mean-for-his-chances-now/

The issue is that most of the #HillaryNever crowd weren't traditional Democratic voters. They weren't going to vote for anybody on Democratic ticket besides Bernie, so the fact that they didn't vote for Hillary is much less relevant than all of the millions of habitual Democratic voters who either voted for Trump or stayed home despite being told that Trump was an "existential threat."

 

[Trotsky]

If anyone wants a good laugh, Tom Watson, a Democratic strategist, is on Twitter to nearly exclusively shit on Bernie Sanders.

https://twitter.com/tomwatson

It also seems that the central strategy for smearing Sanders has moved past his identity or his policies and now solely rests upon insisting, always without any evidence, that his supporters are rabid, that he does not do enough to keep his supporters from hassling people, and that therefore he's a bad candidate.

 

[PEB]

Julian is on Bernie Sanders short list for VP apparently is also with Warren. Bernie has a far bigger chance then Warren.

 

[sickc0d3r]

I disagree here. A pizza ring from emails people are trying to pull clues from and devil worshiping which I dont' even know where people got that. Those two things are not in the same league as the head of the FBI going on national television to state they are reopening an investigation into you because of classified emails found on another laptop.

It was pure Russian bot crap that was circulating. The announcement of the stupid email thing probably pushed her over the edge, but my take is that Hillary being unlikable made all of these diversions much more effective.