Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread v4

[kpt018]

For a brief period, Warren passed him in the betting odds, but she's been struggling hard since. No one else has even had a period of being a more-likely winner since Biden entered the race. Might be time to get used to the idea that he's taking it, though I wouldn't count any of the top four out.

Exactly. And writing him off at a time when his support has never been stronger and he’s resilient is pretty annoying.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Again, this is based only on feelings.

Trump could certainly beat him but given how unpopular he is and how well liked Biden is it would likely be a very narrow victory, and Trump would lose the popular vote again.

Biden isn't Hillary. There isn't a massive "anyone but Biden" movement, he's polling as good or better than any other candidate against trump head to head. He's male which is a plus and he's almost certainly going to win back Pennsylvania for the dems. He's also going to do as well as Hillary did with 70k and over income base.

 

[kpt018]

Biden isn't Hillary. There isn't a massive "anyone but Biden" movement, he's polling as good or better than any other candidate against trump head to head. He's male which is a plus and he's almost certainly going to win back Pennsylvania for the dems. He's also going to do as well as Hillary did with 70k and over income base.

I agree. I guess my point is if he is going to lose it’s going to be narrow unless something out of left field pops up. But yeah, he’s actually polling the best in terms of head to head matchups against trump. He’s safe and like able. The woke and progressive left hates him but he may just be the guy to get it done.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I agree. I guess my point is if he is going to lose it’s going to be narrow unless something out of left field pops up. But yeah, he’s actually polling the best in terms of head to head matchups against trump. He’s safe and like able. The woke and progressive left hates him but he may just be the guy to get it done.

Im just speaking to the notion that trump would demolish Biden head to head. He wont. In fact, I think of all the candidates, Biden brashness this campaign shows he can out trump, trump in terms of appealing to voters who enjoy chest thumping over policy discussion

 

[Trotsky]

Im just speaking to the notion that trump would demolish Biden head to head. He wont. In fact, I think of all the candidates, Biden brashness this campaign shows he can out trump, trump in terms of appealing to voters who enjoy chest thumping over policy discussion

I think you're really misreading Biden's campaign. It hasn't been brash or chest thumping or provocative. It's been rhetorically normal but with a candidate that routinely gets confused and misspeaks and is also somewhat thin-skinned. And there's no way he out-Trumps Trump and, even if he did, it would likely serve to hemorrhage more support than it gained by making him look like a fool to voters who don't value foolishness (Democrat voters).

For all wai's flaws, I think he got electability against Trump completely right. Buttigieg would be strongest, followed by Sanders, followed by Warren, followed by Biden. With Harris being the weakest.

 

[xcvbn]

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

I think you're really misreading Biden's campaign. It hasn't been brash or chest thumping or provocative. It's been rhetorically normal but with a candidate that routinely gets confused and misspeaks and is also somewhat thin-skinned. And there's no way he out-Trumps Trump and, even if he did, it would likely serve to hemorrhage more support than it gained by making him look like a fool to voters who don't value foolishness (Democrat voters).

For all wai's flaws, I think he got electability against Trump completely right. Buttigieg would be strongest, followed by Sanders, followed by Warren, followed by Biden. With Harris being the weakest.

Disagree. Biden going after trump as the prime focus (as trump did with hillary) with policy coming in second alot of time; and, showing some teeth with electors over his sons history and his age has shown he's willing to get brash.

I have Biden, Sanders, Pete and Warren in the electablity order (Pete and Sanders are interchangeable)


I could be way off though. I just dont see what alot on the right are saying about trump trouncing biden

 

[Trotsky]

Meh, it's unknown. Picking someone like Kasich would probably be a good electoral move. Would take Pennsylvania and Ohio off the board for sure.

 

[Happy Man]

This is about a week old. It sure I’d discussed but Yang Gang getting the Yang Train some traction!

he overtook mayor Pete at #4 in the primary polling

https://www.newsweek.com/andrew-yang-fourth-most-favored-candidate-buttigieg-poll-1478990?amp=1

 

[xcvbn]

Meh, it's unknown. Picking someone like Kasich would probably be a good electoral move. Would take Pennsylvania and Ohio off the board for sure.

That should do wonders to energize the base and bring out the minority vote

Are we trying to win or what the fuck are we trying to do?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Taking Ohio and Pennsylvania gives the dems the win in 2016. What states would you guys lose with a Biden / Kasich ticket 2020?

 

[Trotsky]

Taking Ohio and Pennsylvania gives the dems the win in 2016. What states would you guys lose with a Biden / Kasich ticket 2020?

Wouldn't give Dems the win alone. Still would need 2 of Wisconsin/Michigan/Colorado/Virginia/Iowa. I'd bet on Michigan/Colorado/Virginia going blue and Wisconsin/Iowa staying red. But who knows.

 

[xcvbn]

Wouldn't give Dems the win alone. Still would need 2 of Wisconsin/Michigan/Colorado/Virginia/Iowa. I'd bet on Michigan/Colorado/Virginia going blue and Wisconsin/Iowa staying red. But who knows.

Risky strategy to completely shun the progressive wing(possibly the largest % share) of the party for another 4-8 years just to win a single election with the only campaign promise being "nothing will fundamentally change"

Should do the Dem party wonders in the future

 

[Lead]

That would be a strange twist. I already thought Biden’s bid was the strongest appeal to conservatives on the fence about Trump. Kasich would be overkill imo and it would make the one term possibility even a more double edged sword for his party. What’s funny is in 2015/ early 2016, I had a conversation about a Biden-Kasich general election. Man, that had no chance.

 

[sickc0d3r]

Wouldn't give Dems the win alone. Still would need 2 of Wisconsin/Michigan/Colorado/Virginia/Iowa. I'd bet on Michigan/Colorado/Virginia going blue and Wisconsin/Iowa staying red. But who knows.

Colorado was called for Hillary 30 minutes after the polls closed. It’s really not in play for Trump.

 

[Trotsky]

That would be a strange twist. I already thought Biden’s bid was the strongest appeal to conservatives on the fence about Trump. Kasich would be overkill imo and it would make the one term possibility even a more double edged sword for his party. What’s funny is in 2015/ early 2016, I had a conversation about a Biden-Kasich general election. Man, that had no chance.

I don't think the center is frankly very fertile and I don't think many conservatives would be converted, but Kasich is literally the only Republican politician in the country that I've seen get a little Never Trump appeal.

I think Florida is out of play at this point and Ohio is the most important state in the race by far.

 

[Lead]

I don't think the center is frankly very fertile and I don't think many conservatives would be converted, but Kasich is literally the only Republican politician in the country that I've seen get a little Never Trump appeal.

I think Florida is out of play at this point and Ohio is the most important state in the race by far.

If Florida is out, that’s a little grim. Im not complaining about the idea but it would surprise me if it happened. Anyone who carried the lines of “all Democrats have to do is not be crazy” would really be tested at that point.

 

[Trotsky]

If Florida is out, that’s a little grim. Im not complaining about the idea but it would surprise me if it happened. Anyone who carried the lines of “all Democrats have to do is not be crazy” would really be tested at that point.

I mean, Trump won it handily in 2016 and then Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott, two outlandishly shitty candidates, won in 2018 against two very solid Democratic opponents. Hell, Rick Scott was really openly a corrupt POS, looks like an evil alien, and still beat an incumbent Senator.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Wouldn't give Dems the win alone. Still would need 2 of Wisconsin/Michigan/Colorado/Virginia/Iowa. I'd bet on Michigan/Colorado/Virginia going blue and Wisconsin/Iowa staying red. But who knows.

Thought you guys were 38 from the win? Doesn't Ohio and pen put you at 272? Or am I way off?

 

[Trotsky]

Thought you guys were 38 from the win? Doesn't Ohio and pen put you at 272? Or am I way off?

No, without looking at the map I think that's right. But it still presumes other states hols against an incumbent.