Your reaction if O'Malley pulls a Sandhagen against Chito? How likely do you think it is?

[Istryker]

betting my account no chance chito winning

Yeah I think he's going to sleep. Sean has clearly leveled up.

Would've rather this been Corey -Sean

 

[sdpdude9]

Lolol have you seen Chito fight, the guy has never been rocked in his entire MMA career due to immortal chin and great defense

Yeah, it would be quite the feat to finish him let alone totally sleep him. I don’t recall him ever being remotely close to being finished on the feet.

 

[maximus__]

He was completely lost underneath Aldo and begging the ref to bail him out. I'd say his grappling is below average for top 10.

Under Aldo? ALdo spent the 3rd round under him holding a body triangle and actually hiding his head from ground and pound. It was even weaker than Islam performance vs Volk in terms of offensive output in their ground round. It was pure survival and lay and pray after Vera beat the crap out of ALdo in the second round.

 

[jeff7b9]

I think this fight comes down to what fails first:

Chitos chin
Sean's leg/chin

My recollection from their short first encounter was that Sean was sniping headshots with relative ease up until the leg gave out, then it was downhill fast and also Sean looked BAD on the ground.

A lot could have changed since then.

Chito has always struck me as pretty hittable and a guy that relies on his chin.
Sean, as much as people generally don't want to give him credit, has got really elite striking.

Both seem to prefer to stand and neither have impressed me with wrestling so I will assume they duke it out.
(If it goes to the ground with Sean on his back, first fight indicates that is very bad for Sean. Maybe he underperformed due to pain or numbness, but he put up very little resistance in defensive guard.)

I would guess 60/40 ish for Sean.
Chito just doesn't strike me as a champion level fighter but I guess he could be lucky enough to have cryptonite plus the right dance partner and storyline.

I would guess Sean UD or tko. Early stoppage TKO would not surprise me as the UFC seems to see O Malley as a future big star/draw.

 

[NicholasJBasile]

I was thinking about O'Malley's boxing and it got me wondering about his fight against Chito.

O'Malley's hands are fantastic--but I still think Chito's Muay Thai will shrink the octagon little by little, round by round, over the course of the fight. Provided it stays on the feet, I think Chito lands the best shots overall despite being out-landed early. I list my outcomes by probability at the bottom.

Your reaction if O'Malley outwrestles Chito to a decision; and how likely do you think it is? It would be the smart thing to do--if possible--if things got dicey on the feet.

My prediction: Chito 55/45

• Chito inside the distance: 30%
• Chito via UD or SD based on better strikes: 25%
• O'Malley via UD or SD based on volume: 35%
• O'Malley inside the distance: 10%

I for sure view Vera's wrestling as his achilles heel, but in his defense, the guys that outgrapple him have all had above average MMA wrestling in my opinion. I don't think O'Malley has the wrestling chops to build a gameplan around takedowns. I'm thinking he can get the fight down, but he'd need to land some seroius offense first. Furthermore, he'd have to keep Vera down, which is easier said than done (just ask Cruz).

 

[Neck&Neck]

 

[maximus__]

I expect O'Malley to cruise to a clear decision (most likely on the feet). Chito's low-volume style is far too dependent on landing the kill shot. That might work against fringe top-10 BWs, but it generally won't cut it against the best guys in the division. Personally, I thought Chito lost to Munhoz. And O'Malley is a very different fighter than their first meeting.

I usually root for Chito. And I'll certainly root for him against O'Malley. But Chito has feasted on old BWs and, as a result, has become relatively overrated.

You believing that Chito lost to Munhoz is kinda crazy. It was the perfect example of how MMA is actually scored. One fighter was causing damage and impact (Chito) the other was landing ineffective volume (Munhoz). The volume was so close as it is, that there really isn't an argument that the fight goes to the guy that landed more shots.

5 rounder definitely favours Vera. I expect him to be outstruck the first 2 rounds and then slowly take over. He did that in the first fight aswell by being defensively sound in less than a round. O'malley was throwing blind kicks against a guy who is durable and checks kicks. O'malley doesn't deal with with sustained offence. Vera is just going to walk him down until he breaks again. O'malley was clean TKO'd on the ground in 10 seconds. His guard was passed like butter and then he shelled up pretending his leg somehow got reinjured by being struck in the face. He even grabbed the wrong part of his leg.

 

[laleggenda27]

You believing that Chito lost to Munhoz is kinda crazy. It was the perfect example of how MMA is actually scored. One fighter was causing damage and impact (Chito) the other was landing ineffective volume (Munhoz). The volume was so close as it is, that there really isn't an argument that the fight goes to the guy that landed more shots.

5 rounder definitely favours Vera. I expect him to be outstruck the first 2 rounds and then slowly take over. He did that in the first fight aswell by being defensively sound in less than a round. O'malley was throwing blind kicks against a guy who is durable and checks kicks. O'malley doesn't deal with with sustained offence. Vera is just going to walk him down until he breaks again. O'malley was clean TKO'd on the ground in 10 seconds. His guard was passed like butter and then he shelled up pretending his leg somehow got reinjured by being struck in the face. He even grabbed the wrong part of his leg.

14 out of 17 media scored the fight for Munhoz. 55% of fans scored it for Munhoz. But yes, I guess it's "kinda crazy" that so many of us think Munhoz won that fight.

As for your analysis, we'll revisit this post when O'Malley wins. I'm guessing you'll think that's "kinda crazy" too.

 

[maximus__]

14 out of 17 media scored the fight for Munhoz. 55% of fans scored it for Munhoz. But yes, I guess it's "kinda crazy" that so many of us think Munhoz won that fight.

As for your analysis, we'll revisit this post when O'Malley wins. I'm guess you'll think that's "kinda crazy" too.

It's the perfect example of damage and impact winning a fight. Don't get me wrong it was close and shouldn't have been 30-27. It was a clear 29-28 for Vera due to his shots actually causing damage vs Munhoz. People were going off the live UFC stats at the time and thinking Munhoz was landing more shots, but when you look back and actually see who was landing cleanly, it's an easy Vera decision using the actual scoring criteria.

O'malley might win, but Vera is the perfect person to take him out over a 5 rounder. Nobody has ground O'malley out via wrestling, though Yan nearly managed it (with proper refereeing) everytime he has struggled it's been making him face someone that isn't afraid to keep coming forward on the feet. The UFC may try and let him get away with 9 more fouls (like vs Yan) to keep him in the fight though. They booked him against the lowest ranked guy they could with a clear contender in Merab... don't fall for this attempt by the UFC to manipulate specific fighters into being their champions. It's Mcgregor all over again without the same level of skill.

 

[FreedomCricket]

Chito did not look good last time out.

 

[laleggenda27]

It's the perfect example of damage and impact winning a fight. Don't get me wrong it was close and shouldn't have been 30-27. It was a clear 29-28 for Vera due to his shots actually causing damage vs Munhoz. People were going off the live UFC stats at the time and thinking Munhoz was landing more shots, but when you look back and actually see who was landing cleanly, it's an easy Vera decision using the actual scoring criteria.

O'malley might win, but Vera is the perfect person to take him out over a 5 rounder. Nobody has ground O'malley out via wrestling, though Yan nearly managed it (with proper refereeing) everytime he has struggled it's been making him face someone that isn't afraid to keep coming forward on the feet. The UFC may try and let him get away with 9 more fouls (like vs Yan) to keep him in the fight though. They booked him against the lowest ranked guy they could with a clear contender in Merab... don't fall for this attempt by the UFC to manipulate specific fighters into being their champions. It's Mcgregor all over again without the same level of skill.

By definition, it can't be "a clear 29-28 for Vera" when the majority of people (media and fans) thought Munhoz won. But I won't argue the point any further. I'll check back with you after the fight.

 

[FlowchartRog]

I think this fight comes down to what fails first:

Chitos chin
Sean's leg/chin

My recollection from their short first encounter was that Sean was sniping headshots with relative ease up until the leg gave out, then it was downhill fast and also Sean looked BAD on the ground.

A lot could have changed since then.

Chito has always struck me as pretty hittable and a guy that relies on his chin.
Sean, as much as people generally don't want to give him credit, has got really elite striking.

Both seem to prefer to stand and neither have impressed me with wrestling so I will assume they duke it out.
(If it goes to the ground with Sean on his back, first fight indicates that is very bad for Sean. Maybe he underperformed due to pain or numbness, but he put up very little resistance in defensive guard.)

I would guess 60/40 ish for Sean.
Chito just doesn't strike me as a champion level fighter but I guess he could be lucky enough to have cryptonite plus the right dance partner and storyline.

I would guess Sean UD or tko. Early stoppage TKO would not surprise me as the UFC seems to see O Malley as a future big star/draw.

A lot of people misremember this fight in a big way. It wasn't even close to this one sided potshotting extravaganza that people make out, before O'Malley inexplicably "injuring himself".

It was competitive on the feet, with Sean getting off to a fast start as per usual, then Chito gradually finding his distance and timing, and starting to catch O'Malley with more regularity, culminating in the perfect leg kick that fucked him up.

He actually outlanded O'Malley on the feet.

From that day I was confident Chito would win a rematch one way or the other.

Now though? Not sure. I feel like Chito has looked really bad in his most recent couple of fights, and O'Malley has looked surprisingly good in his most recent couple. Especially against Sterling of course, excellent performance and KO.

I feel like Chito is actually worse than when they first met somehow, and Sean is quite a bit better. So ultimately I agree with you, I now see it more like 60/40 O'Malley.

 

[TrueBias]

Fans for this kid baffle me. Paddy fans maybe almost as bad.

 

[johny ringo]

O’Malley is a fantastic striker and proved me wrong many times. That being said. War Chito.

 

[linvillegorge]

Sandhagen is a very legit wrestler. O'Malley isn't.

Chito's biggest issue is that he's relatively low volume. His style pretty much means he's KO or bust against top guys. If he doesn't find the KO he's gonna lose by UD.

 

[maximus__]

By definition, it can't be "a clear 29-28 for Vera" when the majority of people (media and fans) thought Munhoz won. But I won't argue the point any further. I'll check back with you after the fight.

My argument would be it still can be because we are so confused how the judges will score a fight in today's climate.

In the end 3 judges scored it for Vera.

Definitely happy to admit if I am wrong and O'malley pulls it off. I think he is an excellent counter striker, but there is a reason why he has only 2 wins in his entire top 10 and got rushed to the belt. It's the same reason they matched him against Vera in the first place and now think that matching them again will give him the best chance of defending his belt. The UFC doesn't trust him to get by the rest of the division.

 

[OldBoy91]

Way more likely that Chito pulls a Sandhagen imo.

 

[Dim1]

A lot of people misremember this fight in a big way. It wasn't even close to this one sided potshotting extravaganza that people make out, before O'Malley inexplicably "injuring himself".

It was competitive on the feet, with Sean getting off to a fast start as per usual, then Chito gradually finding his distance and timing, and starting to catch O'Malley with more regularity, culminating in the perfect leg kick that fucked him up.

He actually outlanded O'Malley on the feet.

From that day I was confident Chito would win a rematch one way or the other.

Now though? Not sure. I feel like Chito has looked really bad in his most recent couple of fights, and O'Malley has looked surprisingly good in his most recent couple. Especially against Sterling of course, excellent performance and KO.

I feel like Chito is actually worse than when they first met somehow, and Sean is quite a bit better. So ultimately I agree with you, I now see it more like 60/40 O'Malley.

In the first fight it "sounded" like Sean was really cracking him with those kicks. Not sure if Chito ever commented on them as far as doing any damage but probably he would say they werent. Then Chio started to land some shots and it was looking more even. Sean rolled his ankle bad - it was a legit injury and no way he could continue from that point. Watch when he rolls it - even Chito pointed at him like you just f'd it up. Based on that fight and Chito's durability I find it hard to see how Sean wins in a 5 rounder

 

[Dirty Frank]

I was thinking about O'Malley's boxing and it got me wondering about his fight against Chito.

O'Malley's hands are fantastic--but I still think Chito's Muay Thai will shrink the octagon little by little, round by round, over the course of the fight. Provided it stays on the feet, I think Chito lands the best shots overall despite being out-landed early. I list my outcomes by probability at the bottom.

Your reaction if O'Malley outwrestles Chito to a decision; and how likely do you think it is? It would be the smart thing to do--if possible--if things got dicey on the feet.

My prediction: Chito 55/45

• Chito inside the distance: 30%
• Chito via UD or SD based on better strikes: 25%
• O'Malley via UD or SD based on volume: 35%
• O'Malley inside the distance: 10%

Does he have the same wrestling as Sandhagen? Doubt it.

 

[RonDante]

I expect O'Malley to cruise to a clear decision (most likely on the feet). Chito's low-volume style is far too dependent on landing the kill shot. That might work against fringe top-10 BWs, but it generally won't cut it against the best guys in the division. Personally, I thought Chito lost to Munhoz. And O'Malley is a very different fighter than their first meeting.

I usually root for Chito. And I'll certainly root for him against O'Malley. But Chito has feasted on old BWs and, as a result, has become relatively overrated.

You thought he lost to munhoz? That’s crazy. The second round yea but 1 and 3 were clearly vera