UFC on espn 66 underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

Almost every card an underdog beats the odds. Who do you think is most likely this card?

• Ian Machado Garry -135 vs. Carlos Prates +115
• Zhang Mingyang -550 vs. Anthony Smith +375
• Giga Chikadze +150 vs. David Onama -180
• Abus Magomedov +130 vs. Michel Pereira -155
• Randy Brown -235 vs. Nicolas Dalby +190
• Ikram Aliskerov -725 vs. Andre Muniz +450
• Jimmy Flick +235 vs. Matt Schnell -290
• John Castaneda +110 vs. Chris Gutierrez -130
• Heili Alateng +290 vs. Da'Mon Blackshear -390
• Cameron Saaiman -110 vs. Malcolm Wellmaker -110
• Jaqueline Amorim -650 vs. Polyana Viana +425
• Timmy Cuamba +100 vs. Roberto Romero -120
• Chelsea Chandler +225 vs. Joselyne Edwards -275
• Evan Elder -260 vs. Gauge Young +210

My last pick of Chandler got smashed giving me a current record of 6-7. This card I’m going with Giga Chikadze. This was a tough one for me, I had an eye on a couple others who flipped odds or went to a coin flip.

Shoutout to last cards winners. @Necrocrawler @RockyLockridge as the only winners on a rough night for pickers. Catch up shoutouts for ufc 313 @rollthedice @Jinx_AA @WoozyFailGuy @TheTickG @RoseHDCovington @TCE @fujitsugroundnpound @AJ Garcia

 

[Madmartigains]

I'll go with Abus.

 

[Serge421]

Giga Chikadze

 

[FEDORFAN44]

Smith at +375 is good
Abus
Giga
Dalby
Muniz
In that order

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Prates at +115 is definitely my pick even if the line isn't that wide, I just think he'll hurt Garry and take two rounds off him convincingly if not outright finish him, unless his grappling is nonexistent, which doesn't seem to be the case with Fighting Nerds in general, they seem to all have functional defensive grappling even if they're mostly standup fighters.

I've generally always picked against Abus and it paid out against Strickland and Caio, but he seems to have met his match in potential gassers in Michel while being on a nice little winstreak. It's a coinflip fight and +130 are fair odds.

Randy Brown is a midcarder and Dalby always has that dawg in him so Dalby at +190 is another pick.

However, if we're talking value for money, my biggest pick has to be Muniz at +450. He was already scheduled to fight Ikram before and had his and his teams visas mysteriously declined. While Muniz has been relatively inactive, I think he's being overlooked (odds-wise) due to his losses to Paul Craig and Brendan Allen, while Ikram is being given very generous odds considering he's coming off a devastating defeat. Muniz's losses to Allen and Craig are definitely stains, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt with Craig having a fire lit under his ass coming to a new division made him know a victory was the only way he wouldn't get the pink slip pushed him back into the "Paul Craig that can beat anyone" parabola part of Paul Craig's existence.

A rocked confidence having been splattered by the ceiling of the division facing a hungry, larger opponent with longer reach who before those losses was on a long win streak which included being the only guy to ever submit Jacare by snapping his arm in half? Makes for a much closer fight than the odds would have you think IMO

Smith? Eh...I see others picking him, but the guy literally was begging his last opponent to punch his face in. I don't feel confident putting any money on the dude, even though he pulled that snap guillotine on Petrino, who it turns out...might not be very good...however I see the logic as there is no evidence that Mingyang is very good either.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

Smith , Muniz and Viana ... $$$

 

[Tweak896]

Prates 100%, should be favorite

 

[doozer]

Prates at +115 is definitely my pick even if the line isn't that wide, I just think he'll hurt Garry and take two rounds off him convincingly if not outright finish him, unless his grappling is nonexistent, which doesn't seem to be the case with Fighting Nerds in general, they seem to all have functional defensive grappling even if they're mostly standup fighters.

I've generally always picked against Abus and it paid out against Strickland and Caio, but he seems to have met his match in potential gassers in Michel while being on a nice little winstreak. It's a coinflip fight and +130 are fair odds.

Randy Brown is a midcarder and Dalby always has that dawg in him so Dalby at +190 is another pick.

However, if we're talking value for money, my biggest pick has to be Muniz at +450

Not talking value for money so close lines on Prates works well.

 

[doozer]

Prates 100%, should be favorite

I don’t know about that Gary is 7-1 in the UFC with a close loss to 19-1 Shavkat who has finished everyone. But Prates is definitely talented, dangerous, and a fighting nerd.

 

[El Fernas]

Smith & Viana. Prates could be, but i feel this will be an actual test for him, Garry only lost to Rakhmonov and it was a good fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

Imo there's no reason Giga should be the dog vs Onama here. David has a 20% TD rate, so him successfully wrestling down Chikadze is very doubtful (Giga even stuffed Kattar 5/7 times despite getting dominated), and I don't think he's got what it takes to outstrike Giga. David has power, but aside from that he gets outclassed standing imo.

 

[TITS]

Smith, Giga, Muniz.

 

[RockyLockridge]

I'll take Giga, Dalby, Prates, and Chandler

 

[Madmartigains]

Didn't realize how beloved Prates is, there's gonna be a lot of disappointed people Sunday morning.

 

[doozer]

Imo there's no reason Giga should be the dog vs Onama here. David has a 20% TD rate, so him successfully wrestling down Chikadze is very doubtful (Giga even stuffed Kattar 5/7 times despite getting dominated), and I don't think he's got what it takes to outstrike Giga. David has power, but aside from that he gets outclassed standing imo.

I like to hear that since I choose to back Giga. And yes Onama is talented, but beat anyone near gigas calibre, it’s a prospect vs proven match up.

 

[doozer]

Didn't realize how beloved Prates is, there's gonna be a lot of disappointed people Sunday morning.

Mixed in with how hated Gary is.

 

[rollthedice]

I gotta go with Dalby here, dude is strong in the grappling department and could easily out grapple Brown to a decision. Brown is tough, clever and quite well rounded, however I think he is physically weak and Dalby being the brute he is along with is well rounded skill set and proven record to come with, should actually be the favourite however he isn't as active as Brown therefore I understand the dog status. I think Dalby for this card tho

 

[rollthedice]

Mixed in with how hated Gary is.

I like garry and think he derails Prates here

 

[doozer]

I gotta go with Dalby here, dude is strong in the grappling department and could easily out grapple Brown to a decision. Brown is tough, clever and quite well rounded, however I think he is physically weak and Dalby being the brute he is along with is well rounded skill set and proven record to come with, should actually be the favourite however he isn't as active as Brown therefore I understand the dog status. I think Dalby for this card tho

Dalby is a dog in both senses of the word. So tough and breaks people. I am concerned with his age though, but just recently he took the 0 of a hyped up and comer.

 

[doozer]

I like garry and think he derails Prates here

I have no problem with Garry either, but I have no problem with most fighters. As a fighter though I’m excited to see Garry, I think he’s super talented.