UFC FIGHT NIGHT 258 underdog pick of the night

[BEATDOWNS]

This fight will tell if Ruffy truly has the stuffy

fluffy has the stuffy imo

 

[Egészségére!]

Ribeiro by sub +1200

 

[Hymen Crusher]

Imanov and the guy fighting tavares.

 

[ChrisBenoit]

Rinat

 

[josh3000]

I think Trey Waters might beat Sam Patterson; Waters is a very long, lanky striker and Patterson seems kinda chinny, so it think Waters might catch him with something

 

[doozer]

I think I’ll make McKee my official pick.

 

[Harlekin]

Maybe we should do this as a TRUE underdog thread or rule.
People start picking too many +100 and +105 guys. Which is boring.
Or maybe double the prestige for a true underdog.
Or x2, x3, x4 for +200 +300 + 400 ...

 

[FEDORFAN44]

Waters
Imavov fight could go either way.
Ruchala fight is up in the air as well

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Brad Tavares has been fighting 20 years and is 2-4 in his last 6... So I'll take his opponent.

While this is solid logic, he's facing the only other guy that Ihor Poteria could get a win over besides the corpse of Shogun.

 

[TITS]

BSD
Fakhretdinov
Craig

Spoiler

Yes, Craig.

 

[Koala]

Fakhretdinov
I don't think Nazi Swede is that good. He lost to a one-dimensional Greco wrestler in KSW, and to Peregrino from TUF Brazil 3 in Brave. I don't see him beating Fakhretdinov with cage wrestling

 

[deanambrose]

There is many dogs who can win tonight honestly but safest bet is Rinat. His opponent - Gustaffson - from what I've seen is fan favorite WW version of Trevor Peek. Rinat is just too good to be overhelmed by that brawler. Fakhretdinov is also close to top15 IMO.

Also additional note - I hope Mauricio will lose. I hate Brazilians, I hate Portugese language but I also have personal reason here. Love of my life married guy whose nickname is Ruffy so I hate it with passion when I hear it. I hope BSD will finish him.

 

[Deltron 6060]

Original pick was Pitbull, since that's off I'm going with Fakhretdinov. Nothing beats violence with breakfast, enjoy sherbros!
View attachment 1111371

Got that out of the way early!

 

[doozer]

Maybe we should do this as a TRUE underdog thread or rule.
People start picking too many +100 and +105 guys. Which is boring.
Or maybe double the prestige for a true underdog.
Or x2, x3, x4 for +200 +300 + 400 ...

There is something to be said for that. Though I am not looking for a betting thread, and little numbers become finicky.

The idea behind the thread is I’m not the greatest of pickers. If I pick cards I would consistently do worse than the odds (almost everyone would). But if I only went against one official line and got it right more than I got it wrong I would be higher overall than the odds makers. So I kind of built it for one of those pick all the winners ever card all year sites to end up ranked the highest, slightly higher than if someone followed all the odds.

Also a different thought is that came after was the idea that if I were betting, it wouldn’t matter if they were tiny or big, if they were all plus money and I got half of them right I would be ahead. I was considering at the end of the year going up and calculating if I put $100 down on each bet how much I would have made.

A couple things about betting higher odds. First is if it’s required people would simply pick the lower of the higher odds. There is the challenge of who can get the win while betting biggest dog, kind of a who can go the highest without going over. But I don’t want it to be a competition with others, and it leads to high bets with low win percent instead of overall success.

There are a couple of options I see. One would be removing the odds from the forum.

Some people know them anyways plus closer odds will be picked more simply because those are the dogs more likely to win. The odds don’t affect my picks but they still tend to be the close ones because between me and the people I watch, those are the expected outcomes.

The other option would work best with the encouragement for people to keep their scores. For that betting over 200 would give you more than 1 win point depending on how much over. I think that could be a great option and I could convert that in mine. I could even change the odds when I post them to points. A 1 point dog a 2 point dog etc. like you suggested. Really I wouldn’t need anyone else to keep score in order for myself to do that and I think that is a great idea. I’ll look into how to post it next time.

 

[podsox]

I’m late to the party but trea waters is my pick

 

[Siver!]

All right, I'm gonna pick Benoit Saint Denis Siver.

It's not that I don't rate Ruffy, I think he's really good and can understand his favouritism, but I think Benoit remains a very dangerous fighter and despite being flawed, I feel he's been forged in the fire at a very high level.

BSD definitely has had holes poked in his game by guys like Poirier and Moicano, two really, really well-rounded fighters, and his cardio is a bit suspect, but I don't see Ruffy as being as well-rounded as Poirier and Moicano, and he certainly hasn't fought at this level before.

I think BSD reminds people why he's fought who he's fought, while Ruffy has to do a little bit more work before getting another ranked fighter after this. Could be totally wrong but BSD hits hard and chases takedowns, putting Ruffy's 100 % TDD to the test here.

Couldn't watch, how accurate / inaccurate was this "breakdown"?

 

[doozer]

Couldn't watch, how accurate / inaccurate was this "breakdown"?

Pretty accurate. BSD destroyed him with wrestling.