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UFC Fight Night - Makhachev vs Moises

theTKDguy said:
the under 4.5 set at 2.24 (+124) at my book, i think it's worth a play. islam should get the sub in the third or fourth imho. moises has only lost by decision but this is their first 5 rounder and he hasn't fought anyone like mak. khabib has already told him he's got to fight for the title in the next 12 months, dude has to make an impression. besides, the under also covers the chance moises scores an upset.
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Possibly. Moises has had a 5 round fight on the regionals. He couldn't get subbed by Beniel, did get wrestle fucked though
 
BigSteve said:
Possibly. Moises has had a 5 round fight on the regionals. He couldn't get subbed by Beniel, did get wrestle fucked though
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Yeah. From what I've seen Moises has good cardio, is tough and high level bjj black belt. If anything was leaning Islam to win a decision with a sprinkle on championship rounds just in case.
 
theTKDguy said:
the under 4.5 set at 2.24 (+124) at my book, i think it's worth a play. islam should get the sub in the third or fourth imho. moises has only lost by decision but this is their first 5 rounder and he hasn't fought anyone like mak. khabib has already told him he's got to fight for the title in the next 12 months, dude has to make an impression. besides, the under also covers the chance moises scores an upset.
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It took til round 3 to sub Dober, who is the by far the highest level grappler hes subbed which says a lot, and Moises has been training jits since 8 years old and is a stable of ATT where virtually none of those guys ever get subbed. One thing to disagree with me on betting an over, but don't understand this bet in the slightest, especially when Islam subbing him is by far most likely itd ptv.
 
Am I remembering wrong that Islam beat the holy hell out of Dober on the mat for serious stretches of time before finally getting the sub?

Moises may have high level bjj but Islam is just a grappling savant who's going to have top position and who's capable of inflicting serious damage with gnp.

I think early on Moises can defend it well but it takes more energy defending off your back than in having top control so it's easy to see Islam scoring a stoppage but later in the fight.

This may be a rare case where both o2.5 and u4.5 have some sort of value.
 
mkess101 said:
Am I remembering wrong that Islam beat the holy hell out of Dober on the mat for serious stretches of time before finally getting the sub?

Moises may have high level bjj but Islam is just a grappling savant who's going to have top position and who's capable of inflicting serious damage with gnp.

I think early on Moises can defend it well but it takes more energy defending off your back than in having top control so it's easy to see Islam scoring a stoppage but later in the fight.

This may be a rare case where both o2.5 and u4.5 have some sort of value.
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Islam literally has never come close to finishing anyone with gnp.

There is zero value in u4.5 +124. Insanely low price for one ptv with a sub hope on by far highest level jits player Islam has gone against one fight removed from needing almost 2.5 rounds to sub Dober
 
i recall islam not being in a rush to go to the ground with davi ramos, isn't the bjj similar to moises?
 
DogsAndKisses said:
Islam literally has never come close to finishing anyone with gnp.

There is zero value in u4.5 +124. Insanely low price for a sub hope on by far highest level jits player Islam has gone against one fight removed from needing almost 2.5 rounds to sub Dober
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You think Moises is higher level bjj than Davi Ramos??
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
i recall islam not being in a rush to go to the ground with davi ramos, isn't the bjj similar to moises?
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Na Davi comes from competition BJJ and was very high level while competing. Moises has been a black belt forever who has trained BJJ since 8 yrs old and has never come close to being subbed, but wouldn't be fair saying hes similar level of Davi
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
i recall islam not being in a rush to go to the ground with davi ramos, isn't the bjj similar to moises?
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He definitely picked his spots, but when he did put Davi on his back, Islam clearly was getting the better of him. Ramos was damn exhausted by the end of Rd 3 and Islam looked fresh. 2 more rounds, I'm not sure at all that Ramos survives.
 
DogsAndKisses said:
It took til round 3 to sub Dober, who is the by far the highest level grappler hes subbed which says a lot, and Moises has been training jits since 8 years old and is a stable of ATT where virtually none of those guys ever get subbed. One thing to disagree with me on betting an over, but don't understand this bet in the slightest, especially when Islam subbing him is by far most likely itd ptv.
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no man, i don't disagree with your play. i think it most likely hits, don't have it available for me tho. i just pointed out that i like the under 4.5 talking about the over/unders. I do know moises is a legit bjj bb and trains at att so his cardio should be in check but engaging in a grappling match with islam for 25 mins sounds a bit too much. having islam on top is very taxing, kid is very strong and technical. they are both good strikers too, gnp, etc. If you see their resumes, moises has only lost by dec, but im thinking about the matchup. at the price, i think there's decent value.
mkess101 said:
Am I remembering wrong that Islam beat the holy hell out of Dober on the mat for serious stretches of time before finally getting the sub?

Moises may have high level bjj but Islam is just a grappling savant who's going to have top position and who's capable of inflicting serious damage with gnp.

I think early on Moises can defend it well but it takes more energy defending off your back than in having top control so it's easy to see Islam scoring a stoppage but later in the fight.

This may be a rare case where both o2.5 and u4.5 have some sort of value.
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i agree with everything you said.
 
theTKDguy said:
no man, i don't disagree with your play. i think it most likely hits, don't have it available for me tho. i just pointed out that i like the under 4.5 talking about the over/unders. I do know moises is a legit bjj bb and trains at att so his cardio should be in check but engaging in a grappling match with islam for 25 mins sounds a bit too much. having islam on top is very taxing, kid is very strong and technical. they are both good strikers too, gnp, etc. If you see their resumes, moises has only lost by dec, but im thinking about the matchup. at the price, i think there's decent value.

i agree with everything you said.
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Idk how you can say you're looking at the matchup when, again, Islam's highest level sub win was 12 min to get Dober out of there. There would at the very least be no reason to think he can sub a higher level jits guy quicker, and 10 more min of Moises surviving underneath isn't that much. And hes very much position over submission guy, even that head arm was kinda weird. So yeah i'll just leave this alone now cause I couldn't vehemently disagree more with playing u4.5 +124, incredibly bad price for such a narrow ptv

EDIT also mkess, you scared me with this gnp talk so I went back through Dober vs Islam quickly, he just controls him til the sub dude lol virtually no gnp whatsoever
 
No one is taping or has any leans on the LFA card Friday?
 
Yea I would agree, Islam definitely isn’t a sub hunter and favors positional grappling. Not a lot of gnp either. I’d favor Moises surviving the 5 rounds more times than not
 
Is anyone else who uses bet365 having trouble loading the UFC page?
 
Is Parsons tricky enough to catch D-Rod with something? Was mulling over putting some cash on Rodriguez, but I have no clue where his grappling's at.
 
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