UFC Fight Night - Makhachev vs Moises

[Kamais_Ookin]

seeing some people online parlaying vieira and i just don't get it. lemos on this card could ko him.

 

[Chris Baynham]

seeing some people online parlaying vieira and i just don't get it. lemos on this card could ko him.

I think this is an easy win for Viera.
Not impressed with Stoltzfus by any means. I think the UFC rate Viera quite highly and want to build him up.
This fight should be a gimme if he doesn't gas himself out again after going full on headhunting crazy in the first round.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I think this is an easy win for Viera.
Not impressed with Stoltzfus by any means. I think the UFC rate Viera quite highly and want to build him up.
This fight should be a gimme if he doesn't gas himself out again after going full on headhunting crazy in the first round.

Viera gasses himself out in one round just by grappling. The guy is unplayable at these odds.

Survive round one and you have a very good chance of beating him

 

[HighStakesMMA]

This card isn't even worthy of a discussion. Time to chat about Sandhagen-Dillasnake LOL.

 

[Shelter]

Echoing what Chesapeake already said, I'm so frustrated that Hawes/Winn fight got cancelled. Those opening odds on Hawes were amazing.

I'm not doing anything too big on this one, right now all I have is a parlay of Tate and Johns to win for +171. I think Johns' wrestling keeps this fight where he wants it, and he boxes/top controls his way to a clear decision. With Tate, five years is a long time, yes, but she's got a clean decade on Reneau in age, she's training in Vegas at an experienced camp (correct me if I'm wrong), and she's been in the cage with the best of the best. Maybe it's not amazing to watch, but I think she gets a decision win.

 

[Kazda1]

Yea the odds are too good to pass up on, especially in wmma

I'd be leery; but the big question is whether or not Lemos has shown any resistance to a style like Ruiz's. I guess looking back we had no way to tell Buys would be controlled so easily. The same thing could very well apply here since there appears to be no evidence to answer this yet. In my mind, what should have happened to Ruiz when she fought Buys should happen against Lemos. Lemos is shockingly accurate as a puncher especially for WMMA. Ruiz gets hit entirely too much trying to crash into the clinch, and even then her methods of getting takedowns could be useless against someone with some experience. It's not even a matter of dog or pass here, just pass lol. I might look into a RD2 or RD3 finish prop for Lemos though.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I'd be leery; but the big question is whether or not Lemos has shown any resistance to a style like Ruiz's. I guess looking back we had no way to tell Buys would be controlled so easily. The same thing could very well apply here since there appears to be no evidence to answer this yet. In my mind, what should have happened to Ruiz when she fought Buys should happen against Lemos. Lemos is shockingly accurate as a puncher especially for WMMA. Ruiz gets hit entirely too much trying to crash into the clinch, and even then her methods of getting takedowns could be useless against someone with some experience. It's not even a matter of dog or pass here, just pass lol. I might look into a RD2 or RD3 finish prop for Lemos though.

86% implied probability lemos wins in wmma?
I’ll bet against that

she’s on her period and has death cramps after rd 1 and quits because shes mentally weak

a put a unit on it. Worth the risk imo

 

[DogsAndKisses]

86% implied probability lemos wins in wmma?
I’ll bet against that

she’s on her period and has death cramps after rd 1 and quits because shes mentally weak

a put a unit on it. Worth the risk imo

Montserrat slowed down vs Buys by round 3 and literally has no ptv but headlock wrasslin

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Montserrat slowed down vs Buys by round 3 and literally has no ptv but headlock wrasslin

That why she’s +425

Do I really need to make a strong case to take a shot on +425 in wmma? We aren’t talking nunes. We aren’t talking shevchenko.

-600 is stupid. I would play Ruiz out of pure spite of that line. There’s too much variance in low level wmma

 

[DogsAndKisses]

That why she’s +425

Do I really need to make a strong case to take a shot on +425 in wmma? We aren’t talking nunes. We aren’t talking shevchenko.

-600 is stupid. I would play Ruiz out of pure spite of that line. There’s too much variance in low level wmma

I mean idk how seriously you take this but 1u isn't a minor bet. You need to have some level confidence but it seems the most you can come up with is "its WMMA fuck it"

No chance i'd ever bet someone whos ptv is getting headlock tds into ground control 2/3 rounds for a decision even if she was +800. Especially when livebetting exists.

 

[Thesnake101]

seeing some people online parlaying vieira and i just don't get it. lemos on this card could ko him.

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and trusting that the Hernandez performance was an outlier.

At first glance I like Morozov as a dog. I was pretty impressed watching his tape for his UFC fight against Umar Nurmagomedov. Not a shame to lose to that kid in your debut.
I have to brush up on Taha, but don't remember being super high on him.

Not a whole lot else that jumps out at me. Hopefully there's some interesting props.

One thing to keep in mind with Taha, besides the fact that he hits like a mule, is that his win over Bruno Silva (that got overturned) has been aging well imo. Only guy to finish him in the UFC so far, also had that crazy fight with Barcelos.

Kinda feel like fading Morozov since most of the M-1 champs I've seen come to the UFC were underwhelming.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I mean idk how seriously you take this but 1u isn't a minor bet. You need to have some level confidence but it seems the most you can come up with is "its WMMA fuck it"

No chance i'd ever bet someone whos ptv is getting headlock tds into ground control 2/3 rounds for a decision even if she was +800. Especially when livebetting exists.

not sure what kind of horrific tragedy you experienced in your life to make you act this way all the time but Ive already explained that I think the odds are off and I’m willing to put a unit on it.

Ruiz is good enough at one thing to be able to win two rounds

why do you care so much, guy who has to be right all time?

 

[DogsAndKisses]

not sure what kind of horrific tragedy you experienced in your life to make you act this way all the time but Ive already explained that I think the odds are off and I’m willing to put a unit on it.

why do you care so much, guy who has to be right all time?

lmfao. Didn't need tragedy in my life to be a good gambler bruh, weird thing to say. No need to be so offended, I just disagree with your decision to put a unit on someone cause "WMMA bruh". This is a betting discussion, yes?

 

[rille31]

Montserrat slowed down vs Buys by round 3 and literally has no ptv but headlock wrasslin

Pretty much all you need in womans mma

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Pretty much all you need in womans mma

Na. This isn't 2014 and Lemos is no slouch. She will win every aspect of the fight and has never been taken down. The other guy can be my guest and blow a unit on such a narrow ptv with that incredibly thin reasoning, but I disagree with it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Looking for any sign that Viera has improved his cardio.

all i got is this recent instagram post



He looks less shredded. He definitely has lost some definition, which is a good sign that he is dealing with the cardio . But not concrete enough yet.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Looking for any sign that Viera has improved his cardio.

all i got is this recent instagram post



He looks less shredded. He definitely has lost some definition, which is a good sign that he is dealing with the cardio . But not concrete enough yet.

Hopefully we get a media day interview before his price worsens. This really is a great fight for him if he can just address the cardio issue and/or pace himself much better.

 

[2020Tracked]

At first glance I like Morozov as a dog. I was pretty impressed watching his tape for his UFC fight against Umar Nurmagomedov. Not a shame to lose to that kid in your debut.
I have to brush up on Taha, but don't remember being super high on him.

Not a whole lot else that jumps out at me. Hopefully there's some interesting props.

Watched Taha first and really thought I was going to have a bet on Morozov from memory and I was disappointed, just doesn't push the pace and pressure wrestling and grappling game I was expecting, he's good in these areas but he's not overwhelming, it's kind of a slow/lazy approach, he gets on top and just lays in guard for a while and doesn't do much with it. Don't think he's physical enough or heavy enough on top to control the fight there, and standing Taha should be able to bully him and hurt him

 

[Kazda1]

86% implied probability lemos wins in wmma?
I’ll bet against that

she’s on her period and has death cramps after rd 1 and quits because shes mentally weak

a put a unit on it. Worth the risk imo

I don't fault your logic, I just think this is maybe the wrong fight to apply it to given the track record of what we know so far. I don't think Lemos should be -500, nor do I think any chick outside of Nunes/Shevchenko like you named should carry a price tag so high. Sure there's a ton of variance in WMMA, and more so in low level WMMA. The mistake I think you're making however is assuming the matchup to be low level just because one side of it appears that way. I think all the girls Lemos has beaten to this point in the UFC give Ruiz problems, and Lemos beats her worse.

To be fair, I asked the question do you know if Lemos has shown resistance to Ruiz's game? Or is it even worthwhile to find out?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Hopefully we get a media day interview before his price worsens. This really is a great fight for him if he can just address the cardio issue and/or pace himself much better.

He still was able to pass Anthony’s guard. I think he regrets going for the submission early and blowing his wad. If he lays and prays he could beat anthony in a rematch. I can see him fighting like Roman Dolidze ( however you spell it.) just go in there and fight safe , stall on the ground, use his size and bjj to its advantage.