UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez

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Main Card​


  • Anthony Hernandez -310
    vs. Roman Dolidze +260
  • Steve Erceg -400
    vs. Ode Osbourne +300
  • Iasmin Lucindo -185
    vs. Angela Hill +155
  • Christian Rodriguez -215
    vs. Andre Fili +180
  • Jean Matsumoto -285
    vs. Miles Johns +225
  • Christian Leroy Duncan -575
    vs. Eryk Anders +425



Prelims​


  • Raffael Cerqueira +455
    vs. Julius Walker -605
  • Toshiomi Kazama +370
    vs. Elijah Smith -515
  • Joselyne Edwards -250
    vs. Priscila Cachoeira +205
  • Uros Medic -350
    vs. Gilbert Urbina +285
  • Gabriella Fernandes -400
    vs. Julija Stoliarenko +310
 
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Anders' line is more than worth it considering how much Duncan likes to clinch. Looking to take a small stab at Julija by sub as well, think she gets mauled but she's got a penchant for armbarring girls who get careless.

Walker rd 1 KO if it's good odds too, Raffael is dogshit.
 
Osbourne feels warranted. Erecg has already had his chin cracked and was way too passive in his last fight which is one of my biggest red flags in a fighter. Is on a big down slide since barely missing out on the title too.
 
Anders' line is more than worth it considering how much Duncan likes to clinch. Looking to take a small stab at Julija by sub as well, think she gets mauled but she's got a penchant for armbarring girls who get careless.

Walker rd 1 KO if it's good odds too, Raffael is dogshit.
just a road sign message

but gabriela has competed in bjj tournaments and won . she is a black belt if i remember and mostly struggles with wrestlers instead of bjj
 
Osbourne feels warranted. Erecg has already had his chin cracked and was way too passive in his last fight which is one of my biggest red flags in a fighter. Is on a big down slide since barely missing out on the title too.

Maaan....Moreno is obviously an elite guy, levels above Ode. And Erceg lost that fight, but it was absolutely competitive. 48-47 Moreno imo but Erceg outlanded him 116-89. Moreno's punches had more on them but Erceg didn't look in over his head at all to me.

Now...-400 here? No thanks. Ode at +300 doesn't tempt me THAT much either though. This feels like a "get right" fight for Erceg. Pass on betting it, but GL if you do take a stab at Ode.
 
Maaan....Moreno is obviously an elite guy, levels above Ode. And Erceg lost that fight, but it was absolutely competitive. 48-47 Moreno imo but Erceg outlanded him 116-89. Moreno's punches had more on them but Erceg didn't look in over his head at all to me.

Now...-400 here? No thanks. Ode at +300 doesn't tempt me THAT much either though. This feels like a "get right" fight for Erceg. Pass on betting it, but GL if you do take a stab at Ode.

Some guys never do “get right” though. Ex. Brandon Thatch and Josh Grispi. The deflation of pissing away the belt due to his shitty fight IQ has taken a toll on Erceg’s competitive spirit.
 
Some guys never do “get right” though. Ex. Brandon Thatch and Josh Grispi. The deflation of pissing away the belt due to his shitty fight IQ has taken a toll on Erceg’s competitive spirit.

That could be true. Thatch just wasn't very good though. Couldn't grapple. Erceg is a skilled guy. More skilled than Ode for sure. But...I also get it at these odds. If I was forced to make a play I'd play Ode +300 over Erceg -400 but I do think Erceg wins.
 
Ive been very harsh on Steve E in previous posts but being competitive with Moreno shows you that he is close to elite and hasnt fallen off too much.

All things considered this is a gift matchup as Ode is very limited compared to top flyweights.
 
Seems odd that Gabriella Fernandes is fighting Stoliarenko after beating Wang and Judice. Feels like a layup, afraid of the fluke sub though.
 
Osbourne had a decent result in his last fight but he's low level. And he's on 2 weeks notice.

Erceg, despite losing 3 in a row, is probably top 5 in the division. Pantoja and Moreno are really, really good. He got caught against Kai which happens in MMA. If he allows it to happen against Ode Osbourne he should retire.

CLD finishes Anders imo. Anders might have the worst last 3 wins out of all active fighters in the UFC. In fact I'm pretty sure he does. If CLD allows himself to get blanketed for 3 rounds by a 38 year old Eryk Anders at this stage of his career, he should also retire.

Fili is probably the most live underdog, but I'm still picking CeeRod.

All the big favorites on this card should come through tbh. I'm struggling to see any major upsets happening.

I love Anthony Hernandez and have bet him his last 3 fights, but this one feels off. Dolidze has looked better of late and he's very strong. Hernandez will have a big job trying to ragdoll him for 5 rounds.

I've written this whole post and I'm probably not putting a single bet on this card lol. I might parlay 3 of the big favorites for the fk of it. That's never gone wrong before.
 
Maaan....Moreno is obviously an elite guy, levels above Ode. And Erceg lost that fight, but it was absolutely competitive. 48-47 Moreno imo but Erceg outlanded him 116-89. Moreno's punches had more on them but Erceg didn't look in over his head at all to me.

Now...-400 here? No thanks. Ode at +300 doesn't tempt me THAT much either though. This feels like a "get right" fight for Erceg. Pass on betting it, but GL if you do take a stab at Ode.
he's got 6 subs and gave Pantoja some decent grappling exchanges. i think he subs Ode here.
 
I don't really keep track of my MMA/UFC betting like I think most of you do but I'm going for my 4th winning event in a row I think that might be a record for me not sure I would have came up a lot more if dos santos didn't gas vs magny and the over would of hit
 
I don't really keep track of my MMA/UFC betting like I think most of you do but I'm going for my 4th winning event in a row I think that might be a record for me not sure I would have came up a lot more if dos santos didn't gas vs magny and the over would of hit
What are the rest of us supposed to do with this information?
 
I love Anthony Hernandez and have bet him his last 3 fights, but this one feels off. Dolidze has looked better of late and he's very strong. Hernandez will have a big job trying to ragdoll him for 5 rounds.
Dolidze will look big and strong early in the fight, stopping TDs and probably landing a couple of big punches on Fluffy.

After the first 8-10 minutes, Fluffy's pace will start to take over and Dolidze will stt to slow down just enough for Fluffy to get a TD and apply pressure from top.

While I don't think Dolidze would be gassed in R3 of a striking fight, I think he'll be tired against Fluffy's style in R3. If Fluffy does find a finish, I assume it'll be in R4 or R5.

I won't bet Fluffy's ML pre-fight. Instead, I will live bet him toward the end of R2 or whenever I see Dolidze start to struggle or slow down in any area (he's usually easy to live bet for or against). I wouldn't mind seeing Fluffy get hurt with a big punch in R1-R2, as it would give us dog odds on him and he'll eventually recover anyway.

Some props I'm interested in are:
  • Hernandez TDs on MGM/William Hill
  • Hernandez "R4, R5, decision" alternate prop on Boyd
  • Hernandez R4 prop on Boyd
  • Hernandez R5 prop on Boyd
  • Dolidze SS for each round on William Hill
  • Fight starts R3 (the total is 3.5 -110/-110)
 
I like Fili at near +187, he'll be more of the vet in this fight and I don't think CRod is a bad matchup for Fili, he doesn't hit particularly hard which is always Fili's downfall.

Erceg should roll here, will look to play KO or sub if line is decent.

Fluffy probably drowns Dolidze after a competitive 1.5 rounds. I don't really rate Roman at all.
 
I don't really keep track of my MMA/UFC betting like I think most of you do but I'm going for my 4th winning event in a row I think that might be a record for me not sure I would have came up a lot more if dos santos didn't gas vs magny and the over would of hit

dos Santos always gasses when he tries to implement a grappling heavy approach. See the Randy Brown fight.
 
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