UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
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Anyone else looking at Elijah KO, Kazama has a glass jaw so it could be a good way of finding value in such a huge fav.
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I think Eijah ITD is better, he might sub Kazama give the fact that Kazama grappled a lot in his last 2 fights
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Actually Cachoeira may bey worth a bet at those odds. I don't get why Edwards is such a favourite.
Edit: put 50 eur on Cachoeira. My books don't have full odds for this UFC yet. Will put Elijah ITD when available.
Edit: put 50 eur on Cachoeira. My books don't have full odds for this UFC yet. Will put Elijah ITD when available.
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- Brundage ITD.
- SS props depending on the number.
- Possibly OVER 0.5 TDs or U1.5 TDs. Still thinking about it.
- Fight doesn't start R3.
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Thats a puke-worthy line
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I'm already on Anders +425, but that +700 decision line looks good.
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Yeah I like Fili at the odds, I think I probably give CeeRod the nod but think it's closer to pick em odds than CeeRod being a moderate favourite.
I think CeeRod is about 1.4 to win at the moment, o2.5 is slightly better at around 1.44 and think it hits a lot more often. Fili is definitely the one more likely to get finished I think, but both tend to be quite decision heavy win or lose. CeeRod isn't much of a KO threat, Fili certainly isn't a submission threat, Fili does have the occasional fight where he can land something big but I'm not overly concerned of him being the first man to KO CeeRod, the main threat would be Fili getting caught by a choke but prior to his last fight you'd have to go back about 10 years since he got tapped in MMA and CeeRod hasn't really tapped anyone in his UFC career outside of someone nearly 10 fights ago.
I think it's one of those fights where it's generally entertaining on the feet without anyone really hurting the other, a couple of takedowns on either side that don't really lead to a near sub or anything but could win rounds (or more likely, are quickly negated and they're back to their feet after a scramble).
If I'm backing someone at 1.5 or below it's either a case of feeling they have a good chance at finishing a fight as well as win a decision, or they're just clearly a level above in some way - obviously a better striker in a fight that's staying on the feet, or great wrestling versus someone who struggles to keep fights on the feet. Here I just don't really see it.
I think Filis odds are at the point where I can justify a bet, if it gets to 3.0 or more I think it's a mandatory bet. I do quite like Fili Dec @ 4.5 as well given I think the fight sees the cards more often than not and neither have any clear advantages. Once the +3.5 odds are out for Fili I'll look at that too, if it's 1.9 or so I'll likely be on that cos the fight just screams 29-28 either way to me, a split decision properly if your bookies has it could be worth a go if it juices the odds enough.
Not really sure I like anything else. Maybe Angela Hill if she gets to 3.0 odds. Everything else just looks correctly priced with favourites I expect to win at odds that don't interest me in betting and the underdogs at odds that don't tempt me in having a play or really make a case for them pulling off an upset.
I think CeeRod is about 1.4 to win at the moment, o2.5 is slightly better at around 1.44 and think it hits a lot more often. Fili is definitely the one more likely to get finished I think, but both tend to be quite decision heavy win or lose. CeeRod isn't much of a KO threat, Fili certainly isn't a submission threat, Fili does have the occasional fight where he can land something big but I'm not overly concerned of him being the first man to KO CeeRod, the main threat would be Fili getting caught by a choke but prior to his last fight you'd have to go back about 10 years since he got tapped in MMA and CeeRod hasn't really tapped anyone in his UFC career outside of someone nearly 10 fights ago.
I think it's one of those fights where it's generally entertaining on the feet without anyone really hurting the other, a couple of takedowns on either side that don't really lead to a near sub or anything but could win rounds (or more likely, are quickly negated and they're back to their feet after a scramble).
If I'm backing someone at 1.5 or below it's either a case of feeling they have a good chance at finishing a fight as well as win a decision, or they're just clearly a level above in some way - obviously a better striker in a fight that's staying on the feet, or great wrestling versus someone who struggles to keep fights on the feet. Here I just don't really see it.
I think Filis odds are at the point where I can justify a bet, if it gets to 3.0 or more I think it's a mandatory bet. I do quite like Fili Dec @ 4.5 as well given I think the fight sees the cards more often than not and neither have any clear advantages. Once the +3.5 odds are out for Fili I'll look at that too, if it's 1.9 or so I'll likely be on that cos the fight just screams 29-28 either way to me, a split decision properly if your bookies has it could be worth a go if it juices the odds enough.
Not really sure I like anything else. Maybe Angela Hill if she gets to 3.0 odds. Everything else just looks correctly priced with favourites I expect to win at odds that don't interest me in betting and the underdogs at odds that don't tempt me in having a play or really make a case for them pulling off an upset.
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Ceerod is a great anti-wrestler but manages to find ways to lose fights otherwise. Clear value on Fili.
Dare I say Priscilla Cachoeira might have the best value on the whole card. Line makes zero sense.
Dare I say Priscilla Cachoeira might have the best value on the whole card. Line makes zero sense.
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CeeRods only beaten undefeated guys and Joshua Veems. So far guys with Ls on the record have been his only weakness. And Fili sure has Ls.
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Cody Brundage -145 currently.
Now this is interesting...
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It's now -175. Not saying that necessarily makes it a good line, but the betting public disagrees with you.
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Happy to fade the betting public week in week out
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I'm on Urbina +350. I don't rate Medic in the same category of guys Urbina has lost to. Decision again Brady, losing Bryan battle. Getting dusted by Radtke is concerning, but Urbina is likely to apply more pressure and will likely look to push this to the cage/ground as Medic has a habit of giving up space to get his shots off. I think it's pretty clear either Medic TKO first or bust while I think Urbina has the decision style likely to win here on the judges cards.
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I might like Hill vs Lucindo su. She looked bad vs Lemos imo. Disinterested which is concerning. And I ve never rated Lemos that much higher than Hill. I thought she clearly lost to her back in the day but walked away with a split. Tho if Iasmin puts all wrestling gameplan she probably banks two rounds at least. Hills wrestling has improved but still pretty sus.
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