UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

[PuertoRican]

Davey Grant is fighting on his birthday this Saturday.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Davey Grant is fighting on his birthday this Saturday.

he's going to be 39

 

[Kwiatkowski18]

RIP Colby

Rest in piss.

 

[yossarian1979]

I did a couple of parlays with smaller funds.

I put the main event under 4.5 for +115, MJ fight under 1.5 +110, knutson by decision for +105, and Maverick by decision at -260.

 

[Oblivian]

Man, the dogs better be barking tonight or I'm in for a rough one. I think you can make a pretty good argument for most dogs on the main card.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Man, the dogs better be barking tonight or I'm in for a rough one. I think you can make a pretty good argument for most dogs on the main card.

completely agree. dog or bust night for me.

thankfully michael johnson never ceases to lose as a favorite in fights he should win

random dog I'm on today: Charles Henrique +265.

 

[Oblivian]

completely agree. dog or bust night for me.

thankfully michael johnson never ceases to lose as a favorite in fights he should win

random dog I'm on today: Charles Henrique +265.

I'm a bit surprised at where the ITD line is on that one. I think it's a finish or but for Azaitar, and Johnson can crack as well. I see this fight ending ITD most of the time.

 

[EndlessCritic]

I'm a bit surprised at where the ITD line is on that one. I think it's a finish or but for Azaitar, and Johnson can crack as well. I see this fight ending ITD most of the time.

ITD is -220? Seems about right. Johnson can have a tendency to fight conservative. But I do agree Azaitar is probably going to fight to finish or get finished.

 

[Thesnake101]

ITD is -220? Seems about right. Johnson can have a tendency to fight conservative. But I do agree Azaitar is probably going to fight to finish or get finished.

I went with o1.5, I think MJ is much better than Azaitar even with how old he is and he's only finished two of his last 6 wins. 6 years apart between his KOs of Dustin and Alan Patrick, only guy to not finish Flowers and has only logged two first round finishes in the UFC.

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC is using the new gloves for this event. Less knockout gloves.

It's supposedly the last time they'll use them, so be careful with certain bets.

They will also be fighting in a big cage with those soft gloves.

 

[mkess101]

I went with o1.5, I think MJ is much better than Azaitar even with how old he is and he's only finished two of his last 6 wins. 6 years apart between his KOs of Dustin and Alan Patrick, only guy to not finish Flowers and has only logged two first round finishes in the UFC.

Johnson is one of the absolute flakiest guys I've seen in my 25 years of following the sport. He looks like a world beater sometimes, and then sometimes shits the bed vs guys he's more talented than. Now with him aging, I think Azaitar is live for an early finish for sure (even with how limited he is).

 

[Thesnake101]

Johnson is one of the absolute flakiest guys I've seen in my 25 years of following the sport. He looks like a world beater sometimes, and then sometimes shits the bed vs guys he's more talented than. Now with him aging, I think Azaitar is live for an early finish for sure (even with how limited he is).

Could be but I think he's too sloppy to find the perfect shot to put MJ out. Azaitar is 34 himself, coming off getting finished twice and one dimensional. More often than not MJ flakes against guys who either drag him to the mat or give him different looks, Justin and Nate were two of the few guys I saw just dismantle him standing and a lot of it had to do with attributes Azaitar lacks.

It's his path to victory for sure, but I think he's too shit to actually see things through. Even back in Brave there were times where Azaitar found himself in the later rounds against overmatched guys he should've ran over in a minute flat because he only throws power.

Biggest worry of course is the Diego KO loss for MJ, but I think that, aside from it being the perfect shot, Diego is just a different quality fighter.

 

[mkess101]

Could be but I think he's too sloppy to find the perfect shot to put MJ out. Azaitar is 34 himself, coming off getting finished twice and one dimensional. More often than not MJ flakes against guys who either drag him to the mat or give him different looks, Justin and Nate were two of the few guys I saw just dismantle him standing and a lot of it had to do with attributes Azaitar lacks.

It's his path to victory for sure, but I think he's too shit to actually see things through. Even back in Brave there were times where Azaitar found himself in the later rounds against overmatched guys he should've ran over in a minute flat because he only throws power.

Biggest worry of course is the Diego KO loss for MJ, but I think that, aside from it being the perfect shot, Diego is just a different quality fighter.

Don't get me wrong, I favor MJ (though only slightly because of the variance of his performances). He's the more talented guy. But 34 isn't 38 (especially at LW--see Tony Ferguson at 34 then 38 LOL--and especially the difference in mileage between MJ and Azaitar). I'd be wary about any play on MJ paying juice. Azaitar rd 1 at +700 would be the only (small obviously) play I'd advocate.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

If the ITD or under 2.5 line is too much, I usually look at the "does not start round 3'' line, which was @-125 for the MJ/Azaitar fight last time I checked, which encapsulates most of the likely outcomes to me at a pretty fair price.

 

[Rhood]

Why is the line so heavy on Manel Kape?
Does everyone not believe in Bruno Silva?

Bruno Silva was the 1st fighter to finish Tyson Nam since 2008.
Do bettors think Tyson Nam was a scrub or what?

I feel like people are underestimating Bruno Silva

 

[sonhow]

I think theres a chance for Azaitar "comeback" now that usada is long gone but he didnt look to be on "special treatment" based on weigh ins. I guess Johnson rolls unless he slips on banana peel as usual.

 

[mkess101]

Why is the line so heavy on Manel Kape?
Does everyone not believe in Bruno Silva?

Bruno Silva was the 1st fighter to finish Tyson Nam since 2008.
Do bettors think Tyson Nam was a scrub or what?

I feel like people are understanding Bruno Silva

Agree. Line too wide. Kape favored, sure. Not by this margin though.

 

[Thesnake101]

Why is the line so heavy on Manel Kape?
Does everyone not believe in Bruno Silva?

Bruno Silva was the 1st fighter to finish Tyson Nam since 2008.
Do bettors think Tyson Nam was a scrub or what?

I feel like people are understanding Bruno Silva

Reckon it's because of how he looked vs Durden before the finish. He was getting tagged up by a wrestler, if Kape shows urgency then it's his fight to lose, but that's always a given with most of his fights.

 

[Jeffy37]

All under and dogs. Who with me. I'm absolutely drunk already. 2 short nap. Let me feel good about my choice.

 

[sonhow]

Gotta go with Swanson considering he BEAT Fili last time out but got little bit robbed. And Billy on mid of negative momentum.
Kape wins as long as he throws. If he doesnt might as well cut his ass considering no one likes an habitual underperformer.
Jacoby has value but somehow I feel this is split decision city and Petrino gets the hand raised.
Yanez same I feel the value but again I fear the judges in this one. Will play him tho.
Lastly I have changed my mind and am playing Colby. I dont mind the loss if Buckley gets it but cant pass on this one.