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it's unquestionably wide. kape is fast and can be spectacular. but he can also be gunshy, and lose low volume fights.
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UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley
- Thread starter Stat_Collector
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i really like Colby DEC $4.80
IMO the odds are priced for a 3 round fight which would favor Buckley. Colby has an underrated chin, the guy is tough to get out of there and i feel if Buckley doesn't get the finish in R1 or R2 hes going to get worn down and i can see Colby pushing a pace that gases Buckley.
Willing to forgive Colby's performance against Edwards, yes it was bad but Buckley doesn't have the same technical striking that will put Colby in shell up mode.
The one concern is the short notice but his cardio is elite so it shouldn't be as big a factor as it might be for other fighters.
Buckleys KO price at $2.80 looks about right but his DEC price at $3.10 is insanely short IMO.
IMO the odds are priced for a 3 round fight which would favor Buckley. Colby has an underrated chin, the guy is tough to get out of there and i feel if Buckley doesn't get the finish in R1 or R2 hes going to get worn down and i can see Colby pushing a pace that gases Buckley.
Willing to forgive Colby's performance against Edwards, yes it was bad but Buckley doesn't have the same technical striking that will put Colby in shell up mode.
The one concern is the short notice but his cardio is elite so it shouldn't be as big a factor as it might be for other fighters.
Buckleys KO price at $2.80 looks about right but his DEC price at $3.10 is insanely short IMO.
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MJ should win but I don't think he's playable as a favourite. He can win 14 minutes of a fight then still find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I don't rate Azaitar though so will probably leave it.
Yanez I quite like as an underdog. I think he's got solid boxing and expect most of this fight to take place at that range.
Klose Vs Joel should be interesting. Klose is obviously a bit of a decision machine and tough to put away, I expect him to try and weigh on Joel, work some dirty boxing in the clinch but Joel is pretty good in that range too. I think Joel likely wins but I can't really call how, I don't know if he'll be able to sub Klose unless he rocks him first. Joel decision might be a good play.
Petrino/Jacoby should be interesting to see where Patrino is at. Obviously got subbed by Smith but also looked poor and surprisingly muted in his offensive aspect against Pedro. He should win but who knows where he's at or what you'll get out of him and Jacoby is a decent striker.
I think I lean Colby in the main event but who knows where he's at. I don't think he's at the level he used to be at, his inactivity is a bit of a concern too. You'd imagine he comes out to wrestle but I do have concerns of whether or not he'll find it easy to get Buckley down early and though he's improved his striking it's still quite subpar and Buckley should get the better of him there.
Billy Q I can't tell where he's at. He had a run where he was putting everything together and he could use his cardio as a weapon. He's looked underwhelming of late though. Cub is old so if he can push the pace again he can drown Cub and get a win but he looks a bit done and I'm not sure what to expect from him. I think there's a path to victory for Q but I'm not confident in his ability to still do that.
Yanez I quite like as an underdog. I think he's got solid boxing and expect most of this fight to take place at that range.
Klose Vs Joel should be interesting. Klose is obviously a bit of a decision machine and tough to put away, I expect him to try and weigh on Joel, work some dirty boxing in the clinch but Joel is pretty good in that range too. I think Joel likely wins but I can't really call how, I don't know if he'll be able to sub Klose unless he rocks him first. Joel decision might be a good play.
Petrino/Jacoby should be interesting to see where Patrino is at. Obviously got subbed by Smith but also looked poor and surprisingly muted in his offensive aspect against Pedro. He should win but who knows where he's at or what you'll get out of him and Jacoby is a decent striker.
I think I lean Colby in the main event but who knows where he's at. I don't think he's at the level he used to be at, his inactivity is a bit of a concern too. You'd imagine he comes out to wrestle but I do have concerns of whether or not he'll find it easy to get Buckley down early and though he's improved his striking it's still quite subpar and Buckley should get the better of him there.
Billy Q I can't tell where he's at. He had a run where he was putting everything together and he could use his cardio as a weapon. He's looked underwhelming of late though. Cub is old so if he can push the pace again he can drown Cub and get a win but he looks a bit done and I'm not sure what to expect from him. I think there's a path to victory for Q but I'm not confident in his ability to still do that.
