UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley

Buckley only has a small window to ko Colby who's been stopped once in rnd 5

He's not done well with wrestlers in the past. Storley is pretty close to a copy of Colby and we saw how easily he was manhandled.


Alhassan also took him down too, and he gassed in those 3 rounders. Now he's in a 5 round fight with a guy who is done nothing but 5 rounds for the last couple of years. I say Buckley has the smaller window to win , i give him maybe 10 mins of success or he goes bust. He has 2 kos in the 1st round and his best kos are in rnds 2-3. Dec win is only possible if he wins the first 3 and Colby just wins the last two, but i have a hard time believing Buckley takes all first 3 rounds, he's bound to be wrestled.

If i had to play either one : Buckley ko 2-3 or Colby rnds 4-5 or Dec.

I can see Colby securing a late sub or tko gnp. Gassy fighters turn into white belts in those later rounds.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Buckley only has a small window to ko Colby who's been stopped once in rnd 5

He's not done well with wrestlers in the past. Storley is pretty close to a copy of Colby and we saw how easily he was manhandled.


Alhassan also took him down too, and he gassed in those 3 rounders. Now he's in a 5 round fight with a guy who is done nothing but 5 rounds for the last couple of years. I say Buckley has the smaller window to win , i give him maybe 10 mins of success or he goes bust. He has 2 kos in the 1st round and his best kos are in rnds 2-3. Dec win is only possible if he wins the first 3 and Colby just wins the last two, but i have a hard time believing Buckley takes all first 3 rounds, he's bound to be wrestled.

If i had to play either one : Buckley ko 2-3 or Colby rnds 4-5 or Dec.

I can see Colby securing a late sub or tko gnp. Gassy fighters turn into white belts in those later rounds.
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You're referencing fights from quite awhile ago. Eye test says Buckley is much better with both cardio and grappling than he was 20 fights ago vs Storley or even 10 vs Al Hassan. Cardio more a question with 5 rounds, to be fair though. I'll definitely grant that.
 
It is interesting the lack of wrestlers that Buckley has faced.
 
mkess101 said:
You're referencing fights from quite awhile ago. Eye test says Buckley is much better with both cardio and grappling than he was 20 fights ago vs Storley or even 10 vs Al Hassan. Cardio more a question with 5 rounds, to be fair though. I'll definitely grant that.
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cardio matters when it’s strictly striking vs grappling, some guys tank faster when you force them to defend takedowns. Colby had later success against Leon who is a more proficient grappler.

What i’m saying is Buckley has been matched with strikers with average wrestling. of course he didn’t gas, no one shot on him that much
 
Stat_Collector said:
cardio matters when it’s strictly striking vs grappling, some guys tank faster when you force them to defend takedowns. Colby had later success against Leon who is a more proficient grappler.

What i’m saying is Buckley has been matched with strikers with average wrestling. of course he didn’t gas, no one shot on him that much
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Mostly. Duraev is a wrestler and was shooting on Buckley a lot. That fight only lasted 2 rounds, but iirc Buckley's cardio was good at the end of rd 2.
Again, far cry from 5 rounds so there's absolutely some uncertainty as to how he will look in the later rounds if it gets there.
 
mkess101 said:
Mostly. Duraev is a wrestler and was shooting on Buckley a lot. That fight only lasted 2 rounds, but iirc Buckley's cardio was good at the end of rd 2.
Again, far cry from 5 rounds so there's absolutely some uncertainty as to how he will look in the later rounds if it gets there.
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. He was also lacking too far behind in the striking aspect that he was receiving too much damage on the feet that sapped him faster.

Also not every wrestler beats Buckley.

It’s wrestler+cardio which Colby is/has
 
Stat_Collector said:
. He was also lacking too far behind in the striking aspect that he was receiving too much damage on the feet that sapped him faster.

Also not every wrestler beats Buckley.

It’s wrestler+cardio which Colby is/has
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Colby sort of changed his style to be less a wrestler and more a grinding clinch guy that wants to hold guys on the cage and hit them with high volume, low power punches. It's still exhausting so it doesn't really go against your point but it's not what we traditionally think of as a wrestling based guy.

His performance vs Leon was weird too. Not that he lost (Buckley would lose to Leon too imo) but how he looked. Disinterested and detached. Like he was going through the motions from the start. For a guy who's made a career of winning on effort and attrition, it was bizarre to see. Maybe just a bad night or he had something else going on. Not sure.
 
mkess101 said:
Colby sort of changed his style to be less a wrestler and more a grinding clinch guy that wants to hold guys on the cage and hit them with high volume, low power punches. It's still exhausting so it doesn't really go against your point but it's not what we traditionally think of as a wrestling based guy.

His performance vs Leon was weird too. Not that he lost (Buckley would lose to Leon too imo) but how he looked. Disinterested and detached. Like he was going through the motions from the start. For a guy who's made a career of winning on effort and attrition, it was bizarre to see. Maybe just a bad night or he had something else going on. Not sure.
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I would play Buckley rnds 2-3 , it’s possible he just out powers him and finishes.

I just dont see a dec win , unless he captures all first 3 rounds. I’m not necessarily saying Buckley wont win. I favor Colby in the end part of the fight. Colby still secured ctrl at the tail end against a better conditioned athlete in Leon, why wont he ctrl Buckley who has big fast twitch muscles?
 
Stat_Collector said:
I would play Buckley rnds 2-3 , it’s possible he just out powers him and finishes.

I just dont see a dec win , unless he captures all first 3 rounds. I’m not necessarily saying Buckley wont win. I favor Colby in the end part of the fight. Colby still secured ctrl at the tail end against a better conditioned athlete in Leon, why wont he ctrl Buckley who has big fast twitch muscles?
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I'll likely pass all the way around. I don't see much value.
 
Stat_Collector said:
cardio matters when it’s strictly striking vs grappling, some guys tank faster when you force them to defend takedowns. Colby had later success against Leon who is a more proficient grappler.

What i’m saying is Buckley has been matched with strikers with average wrestling. of course he didn’t gas, no one shot on him that much
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Buckley has wrestled himself lately which is even more taxing if there is some resistance, and hasn't gassed at all.

I think he has a high VO2 max, but he is utilising a lot of power in everything he does, and will probably gas in a 5 rounder if he doesn't temper his output to account for the extra rounds.

His biggest issue is that his stand-up kinda sucks.

He has power and speed, but technically he is poor.

If Covington can win 1 of the first 3 rounds on the feet, and then potentially takeover with grappling in rounds 4 & 5 there is an opening for him to win for sure.
 
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DalchaLungiambula said:
Buckley has wrestled himself lately which is even more taxing if there is some resistance, and hasn't gassed at all.

I think he has a high VO2 max, but he is utilising a lot of power in everything he does, and will probably gas in a 5 rounder if he doesn't temper his output to account for the extra rounds.

His biggest issue is that his stand-up kinda sucks.

He has power and speed, but technically he is poor.

If Covington can win 1 of the first 3 rounds on the feet, and then potentially takeover with grappling in rounds 4 & 5 there is an opening for him to win for sure.
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it can go that way but i would not rule out a Buckly rnd 2 -3 finish. Colby got rocked by a washed Masividal in rnd 2 i believe and had to wrestle his way to recovery. He's also pushing 36 which is washed faze. That is why i'm leaning towards a pass.

A Buckley rnd 2-3 ko (1000-1500+)can be more profitable. Colby rnd 5 more (3000+) so but less likely, and a dec is likely to be in the 150-200+ area.

it all depends where you see value or if you rather just hedge, i'd just pass or play both sides, it's not a one sided fight.
 
Given how bad Quarantillo has looked recently I'm willing to take a chance on Cub. Still got some pop in his hands despite being old, and I don't know if Billy's wrestling is good enough to actually shut Cub down.
 
mkess101 said:
Well wherever Luque is in his career arc, you can still use him as a measuring stick to a degree in comparing Gorimbo and Buckley now right? They both fought him recently.
Yeah Buckley needed a late KO over WB but he found a way...and that's still a higher level of competition (even now) than what Gorimbo has even faced.

Your point about trajectory is still valid, it doesn't mean everything. I'm just saying it's not apples to apples comparing Buckley and Gorimbo.
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Something weird was going on with Luque in the Buckley fight. The 1st Round was close then in the 2nd he inexplicably pulls guard, covers up, and eats a bunch of punches on his forearms until the ref waved it off.
 
StewDogg11 said:
Something weird was going on with Luque in the Buckley fight. The 1st Round was close then in the 2nd he inexplicably pulls guard, covers up, and eats a bunch of punches on his forearms until the ref waved it off.
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Agree.
 
Woodson -152 is playable.
Klose +325 is wide.
Yanez will 100% fight for your money at +180
Don't hate Jacoby at all at +250
Bruno Silva +300 is wide
Covington +240 is wide
 
For the favs, I like Petrino and Buckley.
For the evens, I like Grant.
For the underdogs, I like Yanez.
 
Stat_Collector said:
it can go that way but i would not rule out a Buckly rnd 2 -3 finish. Colby got rocked by a washed Masividal in rnd 2 i believe and had to wrestle his way to recovery. He's also pushing 36 which is washed faze. That is why i'm leaning towards a pass.

A Buckley rnd 2-3 ko (1000-1500+)can be more profitable. Colby rnd 5 more (3000+) so but less likely, and a dec is likely to be in the 150-200+ area.

it all depends where you see value or if you rather just hedge, i'd just pass or play both sides, it's not a one sided fight.
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Yeah I'm passing.

BigSteve and Georges are betting big on Buckley; and I don't like betting on old guys anyway
 
Why is Miles Johns getting disrespected so bad? Yes Lima had a decent short notice debut, but he arguably lost the first two rounds. Naimov isn't even that good.

Some of Johns' wins have aged quite good, as has his loss to Bautista.
 
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