UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[Macaque]

If you cant come up with a concrete path to victory for a fighter then they aren't 35% to win.

This very much appears to be a fight where one fighter is slightly better than their opponent in every facet of MMA and when that is the case the underdog very rarely wins.

I just named you two paths to victory, namely bonking a chinny Petroski early or winning late, likely by DEC, once Petroski fades after the first round.

Petroski was better everywhere compared to Meerschaert and almost dropped the ball. Meerschaert does have good jiu-jitsu, but he’s glacierly slow, not as strong as Budka, and packs no punch whatsoever.

Your use of the word “slightly” implies that this will be a relatively close affair, even if Petroski wins.

With that said, I think both guys are bottom of the barrell, with Petroski being a bit better, and are very untrustworthy, Petroski moreso.

 

[Thesnake101]

Andre Lima was -110 for 20 days. Now he's -190
Spann from -278 to -355
Costa from -298 to -535

These are definitely lines I might look to fade to an extent. Lima just outright, since I think his line might even get worse by the time fight night comes by, and Felipe's pressure might sway judges if he's able to land with any sort of regularity. The over for the other two perhaps, depending on value.

I just named you two paths to victory, namely bonking a chinny Petroski early or winning late, likely by DEC, once Petroski fades after the first round.

Petroski was better everywhere compared to Meerschaert and almost dropped the ball. Meerschaert does have good jiu-jitsu, but he’s glacierly slow, not as strong as Budka, and packs no punch whatsoever.

Your use of the word “slightly” implies that this will be a relatively close affair, even if Petroski wins.

With that said, I think both guys are bottom of the barrell, with Petroski being a bit better, and are very untrustworthy, Petroski moreso.

We just saw Budka completely gas himself out trying to force the wrestling against a kickboxer, I wouldn't trust him to stage a late comeback vs Petroski now. That aside he's only ever gotten 1 finish with strikes as a pro, an early KO against a 2-10 guy. For comparison's sake Malkoun had finishes 4 due to strikes by the time he got signed - 2 as a pro, 1 as an amateur and 1 in Boxing.

Gerald, for all his faults, is a dog who has gotten finishes in all of his UFC wins. 4 of those in the 3rd round alone. I really don't see Budka getting a finish being in the cards here, but I'm not playing Petroski either since the line is very steep and not at all worth it.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Your use of the word “slightly” implies that this will be a relatively close affair, even if Petroski wins.

No it doesn't.

Budka does not have any realistic paths to victory thats why you couldn't name a single concrete one.

 

[theTKDguy]

No tape but if the so called guard puller, 0 striking and no heart amorim is in fact a - 400 fav against gritty demoupulos, it is a very good dog or pass shot. Don't play amorim please, better donate to a dog shelter.

 

[Spath]

No tape but if the so called guard puller, 0 striking and no heart amorim is in fact a - 400 fav against gritty demoupulos, it is a very good dog or pass shot. Don't play amorim please, better donate to a dog shelter.

Dog shelter donations are pretty great, not gonna lie!

 

[Georges Hefner]

That dude is a joke literally begs for more subscribers

No hes not. Angelo is my daddy

 

[Georges Hefner]

𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐍𝐄𝐖𝐒

Gilbert Burns agrees deal. All done

Four year contract for Burns, set to fly later today to Las Vegas for medical tests.

Burns accepted deal immediately, deal sealed. His agent to receive total fee of over €3m package.

€16m fee and €5m add ons with sell on clauses up to 10% agreed for future sale.

Exclusive story, already confirmed last night.

HERE WE GO

 

[Georges Hefner]

Guys says he has 10k premium
Members yet he bets barely anything at all

Wolf tickets

I like he’s early and informative - but he barely bets … he’s really not a big gambler on the scene- just another one of us

CASH EM, DONT TRASH EM’!

Gilbert Burns +150

 

[mkess101]

No tape but if the so called guard puller, 0 striking and no heart amorim is in fact a - 400 fav against gritty demoupulos, it is a very good dog or pass shot. Don't play amorim please, better donate to a dog shelter.

Amorim got to -400 and everyone bet Demo and now it's around -300. Nobody was betting Amorim -400, and they likely still aren't at -300.

Sometimes this forum takes such weird turns. Someone says "That +350 dog should be favored" and when there's pushback of "Listen, no way in hell would I pay -400 or even -300 on the favorite but it's going too far to say the huge underdog should be favored here"...what people hear is "You love Amorim in this spot! You're so stupid, how can you justify backing her here???"

Reality: Amorim is more likely to dominate Demo with grappling and either sub her or control her than it is that Demo is to avoid grappling exchanges and keep it standing the whole time (or most of it). But it's not enough of a gap in those likelihoods to warrant such a wide line. I don't blame people taking a stab at Demo at super juicy odds, but it's just absurd that those of us who are like "Meh, it's a pass. I think Amorim wins so I don't want to bet Demo but no way would I pay this juice on Amorim" are replied to with "OMG, how can you favor her???"

I'd gladly bet Amorim at even odds to anyone that wanted to, but since you can still get her +240 or whatever nobody would take that bet from me. Nor should they. But it's just comical the way some people present things.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

But it's just comical the way some people present things.

You sure have posted a lot about this fight for someone who has no vested interest.

Seems like you know you made a terrible bet and are taking it out on the folks talking sense which is a shame.

 

[B.Goetz]

I really kicked a hornet's nest with my Amorim comment. For the record, I don't have anything on her, and after this discussion I don't intend to. I think we can put this to bed.

 

[xhaydenx]

I will bet the demo and probably the GTD or the iTD.

 

[mkess101]

You sure have posted a lot about this fight for someone who has no vested interest.

Seems like you know you made a terrible bet and are taking it out on the folks talking sense which is a shame.

LMAO yeah, after all these years I'm gonna start betting -400 faves and then lie here about it. I'm posting a lot about it because I think some of the arguments were silly. You think this is the first fight I've posted a lot about on this sub that I didn't bet?

So what's actually a shame is that you think making a tiny play on a +300 fighter that you think should be favored is "talking sense".

If someone gives me 3-1 on something that I think is over 50% to hit, I'm gonna take advantage. But math isn't for everyone, so it's all good.

 

[B.Goetz]

Has anyone else taped Yashmoz-Peek yet? Yashmoz is a slight dog now, and I think he's better everywhere. Better boxing, and much better kicks. He can also wrestle, whereas Peek isn't a good grappler. I'm hoping to hear people's thoughts on that one.

 

[PuertoRican]

You sure have posted a lot about this fight for someone who has no vested interest.

Seems like you know you made a terrible bet and are taking it out on the folks talking sense which is a shame.

The worst WMMA fight on the card is once again the most talked about fight.

Never fails.

Has anyone else taped Yashmoz-Peek yet? Yashmoz is a slight dog now, and I think he's better everywhere. Better boxing, and much better kicks. He can also wrestle, whereas Peek isn't a good grappler. I'm hoping to hear people's thoughts on that one.

I also think Ashmouz is better everywhere, but I'm just worried about his cardio. If it's not an issue in this fight, then he might look like the best value on the card in retrospect.

Definitely the toughest fight to cap on this card.

 

[xhaydenx]

The worst WMMA fight on the card is once again the most talked about fight.

Probably more talked about because Andrade/Nat is a lot more predictable, whereas there's money to be made if Demo can exploit Amorin's obvious weaknesses. That line is silly, the Andrade/Nat one isn't as bad.

More importantly, what the fuck happened to the original matchup? Amorin was supposed to be fighting the uncrowned champ, Mizuki, not Demo.

I wanted Miz via SUB for that too.

 

[sonhow]

Has anyone else taped Yashmoz-Peek yet? Yashmoz is a slight dog now, and I think he's better everywhere. Better boxing, and much better kicks. He can also wrestle, whereas Peek isn't a good grappler. I'm hoping to hear people's thoughts on that one.

Peek has two wins but both are arguably against biggest cans in recent history and a loss to Chepe who has for now proven to be effective if not pretty good and jury is still out on Cambell. Hard to know how good Peek really is. The guy was wild man and now hes kinda boring.
I might take the fgtd here if I get plus odds.

 

[guesswhoseback]

LMAO yeah, after all these years I'm gonna start betting -400 faves and then lie here about it. I'm posting a lot about it because I think some of the arguments were silly. You think this is the first fight I've posted a lot about on this sub that I didn't bet?

So what's actually a shame is that you think making a tiny play on a +300 fighter that you think should be favored is "talking sense".

If someone gives me 3-1 on something that I think is over 50% to hit, I'm gonna take advantage. But math isn't for everyone, so it's all good.

Dam 2 OG'S arguing over a dumb bitch fight

 

[Bakayoko]

No it doesn't.

Budka does not have any realistic paths to victory thats why you couldn't name a single concrete one.

Are you logging in drunk or drugged on this karate forum?
First you twist what mkess says and put words in his mouth he didn't say.
Then you're claiming the other guy can't find a path to victory for Budka,when he clearly names two paths you say he can't name them.
wtf is going on

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Are you logging in drunk or drugged on this karate forum?
First you twist what mkess says and put words in his mouth he didn't say.
Then you're claiming the other guy can't find a path to victory for Budka,when he clearly names two paths you say he can't name them.
wtf is going on

^ Shit like this is why I stopped posting in here.

This guy wants to bet Budka and didn't like what I had to say so the way he is rationalizing it to himself is that I must be intoxicated or angry.

No bro, its just a bad bet, there isn't anything deeper to it but good luck anyway.