UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

That's weird logic. I'm not suggesting you risk half your bankroll or something insane. But you only want to risk 2% of it on something you think has a 60% chance of hitting and you're getting paid almost 4-1?

Also, the statement "if I bet a fighter every time I believed there was value on their ML I'd go broke quickly"...huh? That makes absolutely zero sense unless you're literally saying you suck at assessing when there's value. Why would you go broke quickly when betting fighters that have value LMAO? That's actually specifically how you grow a bankroll, not shrink it.

On the most recent PFL card three massive favorites (Loughnane, Khizriev, Berkhamov) all won by split decision so there was clearly value on the underdogs in every single one of those fights. However, if I had bet the underdog in each of those fights and risked 2u on each (or more as you are suggesting) just because I believed their was some value on the underdogs ML; I would still be out at least 6% of my bankroll.

The value does not get there most of the time

You can make 20 bets and every single one of them can be a good bet, where there was clearly value on the underdog, but if none of those bets get there you are still out a good chunk of your bankroll. That is why it is so important to choose your spots carefully and put your money in a strong position to win.

Hopefully this makes sense.

 

[mkess101]

On the most recent PFL card three massive favorites (Loughnane, Khizriev, Berkhamov) all won by split decision so there was clearly value on the underdogs in every single one of those fights. However, if I had bet the underdog in each of those fights and risked 2u on each (or more as you are suggesting) just because I believed their was some value on the underdogs ML; I would still be out at least 6% of my bankroll.

The value does not get there most of the time

You can make 20 bets and every single one of them can be a good bet, where there was clearly value on the underdog, but if none of those bets get there you are still out a good chunk of your bankroll. That is why it is so important to choose your spots carefully and put your money in a strong position to win.

Hopefully this makes sense.

I mean, it **kinda** does but also not really. You're risking something on ANY bet you make, right? It's literally all gambling on fights is: assess value, make bet.

For example if you were betting 3 different fighters at +385 (like what you got Lil Monster at) you don't need your value to get there "most of the time". You just need to be right on 1 of the 3 and you profit.

And you're not just saying there's "value" on Dem because the line is too wide. You literally think she should be favored! So in this case you DO expect the "value" to get there more often than not, and you're getting almost 4-1!!

 

[Bakayoko]

If you tape fights in advance of lines opening, then you can best identify when a fighter who opens as a +200 underdog should in actuality be a -200 favorite, and extract most of the value at opening. You can build up a healthy bankroll quicker than you would think utilizing this strategy, all while minimizing risk, since you never have more than 2% of your bankroll invested into any fight and are mainly betting fighters you perceive as favorites at dog odds.

For example, I put 2u on Wang Cong at +164 and 1u on Jacqueline Cavalcanti at +145 at opening and profited nearly 5u on this card despite my money being in very little danger.

I wasn’t very good when I started and didn’t know jack shit about betting, so it was to my own benefit that I practiced good bankroll management. My unit size has risen 10x since I started betting MMA four years which is fast enough for me.

I can't believe you catched that Wang opener and put just 2u on it,ffs

 

[guesswhoseback]

Awesome APEX Card. I expect a lot of finishes, possible 13/13.

Zygi looks unconfident on the ground, his SUB defense is zero. Fletcher back take and finish him on RNC or something.

Santos early in his career finish a lot of good fighters on SUB, Brenner pull out of deep RNC, Onana too. I think chinese fighters are not so good in SUB defense.

After that when Malkoun knocks out Petroski via hip touch, I can't believe in his durability. Budka it reminds me of Brundage, can be some unexpected KO like against Reece.

We see Dulgarian's transitions are incredible, Marrote isn't on the UFC level... Takedown - GNP - Trap Into D'Arce.

Vanessa accepts dog fights against better grapplers than her in his career. Questionable fight IQ, Amorim grind for the submission all the time... IDK who can survive her chain submission game.

Two crazy brazilians trading punches on center of the cage. Felipe has phenomenal drop step counters show it against Kape, can capitulate on them over Lima... He will set up high kick all the time and execute that in the third round.

Nelson wants slow pace of fight, Garcia is like a train. Embarrassing match up for Nelson, he can't survive his chasings.

Peek vs Ashmouz 50-50 fight. I'm going with The Highlight Peek perfomance like old Gaethje.

Schnell glass chin, Costa one of the hardest puncher in the division.

Andrade will be punching bag. Natalia Silva will land too much clean shots in three rounds and I think she will get late finish.

Burns KO/TKO 30% - SUB 8% - DEC - 10%
Brady KO/TKO 4% - SUB 10% - DEC 38%

Lol really lots of finishes I see 4

Dulgarian-ko1
Spann-ko1
Costa-ko2
Garcia-ko2

 

[B.Goetz]

Yashmoz should dominate Trevor Peek. Big gap in skills. Yashmoz broke his ulna in his last fight with Chris Duncan. He looks pretty legit. Unless Peek can give him the ol' Homer Simpson, I don't see how he wins. Yashmoz is superior in kicking and grappling, with boxing being a little more competitive.

 

[Thesnake101]

Gonna take a chance on Nelson's ML and his KO line for this event. Both guys have identical records, but I feel like Kyle has looked better in his current string of wins compared to Steve, who usually thrives in messy fights.

 

[Georges Hefner]

You can't help people that don't want help. Don't blame yourself. You did what you could.

What do u think happened to him?? Ive called him several times and he didnt pick up. Im worried sick. Please i just want him to come back

 

[Georges Hefner]

Come back home @DalchaLungiambula . We all miss u

 

[sonhow]

Tbf Amorim has shown better cardio and that she manages to win fights on top vs Ruis and Hughes in the first round (cardio part obviously onnly applies to Ruis). And Im not entirely sure if Vanes has that same dog in her to dig deep as Hughes did. She is incredibly tough so I wouldnt touch the sub lines but I will make a bet I expect to lose on Demopolous because she truly is the better striker and knows how to sway the judges.

 

[Bakayoko]

What do u think happened to him?? Ive called him several times and he didnt pick up. Im worried sick. Please i just want him to come back

I think he's dead bro.
I'm sorry.

 

[mkess101]

What do u think happened to him?? Ive called him several times and he didnt pick up. Im worried sick. Please i just want him to come back

I'm not sure. But there are reports of someone outside Edmen's house with a megaphone berating Edmen for his shitty cardio...

 

[Thesnake101]

What do u think happened to him?? Ive called him several times and he didnt pick up. Im worried sick. Please i just want him to come back

Prolly pawned all his belongings for one more mega-lock: Marco Tulio at -500

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Tbf Amorim has shown better cardio and that she manages to win fights on top vs Ruis and Hughes in the first round (cardio part obviously onnly applies to Ruis). And Im not entirely sure if Vanes has that same dog in her to dig deep as Hughes did. She is incredibly tough so I wouldnt touch the sub lines but I will make a bet I expect to lose on Demopolous because she truly is the better striker and knows how to sway the judges.

You realize you are giving Amorim credit for winning one round against Hughes, and then quitting, whereas Demopolous literally has a stoppage victory over Hughes.

I don't know if its a hatred of Vanessa Demopolous or just a bunch of Jacquline Amorim fanboys but these are some insane leaps of logic being put forth to justify her ridiculously inflated betting line.

 

[mkess101]

You realize you are giving Amorim credit for winning one round against Hughes, and then quitting, whereas Demopolous literally has a stoppage victory over Hughes.

I don't know if its a hatred of Vanessa Demopolous or just a bunch of Jacquline Amorim fanboys but these are some insane leaps of logic being put forth to justify her ridiculously inflated betting line.

I don't think anyone has justified that betting line? (Maybe one person?)

I'm the one that's argued with you most and even I if forced to bet a ML on this fight would take Vanessa. I think Amorim wins, I favor her...but there's no question at all the line is too wide.

 

[sonhow]

You realize you are giving Amorim credit for winning one round against Hughes, and then quitting, whereas Demopolous literally has a stoppage victory over Hughes.

I don't know if its a hatred of Vanessa Demopolous or just a bunch of Jacquline Amorim fanboys but these are some insane leaps of logic being put forth to justify her ridiculously inflated betting line.

Wasnt Hughes pretty much dominating Vaness before getting caught by some ridicilous soty triangle variation? Theres a difference in being tough and gritty. Theres also difference in being physical and slick. I think you beat Amorim by being physical and gritty. Vanessa is more on the tough and slick side in my opinnion. But Im still playing her dont worry. You aint alone here thinking the odds are mighty off.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Great interview. Vanessa talks about the advantages of living so close to the apex, and she talks about her upcoming fight vs Amorim at around 3:00, she even finds out that a site called bestfightodds exists. Talks about her own underdog odds around 6:30

 

[Georges Hefner]

I think he's dead bro.
I'm sorry.

Thats fucking crazy yo

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Lol really lots of finishes I see 4

Dulgarian-ko1
Spann-ko1
Costa-ko2
Garcia-ko2

More than 50% of the fights will end via finish. I'm sure.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Prolly pawned all his belongings for one more mega-lock: Marco Tulio at -500

No I’m pretty sure he died on August 25th due to the time zone difference. He had suicidal thoughts leading up to this. Its a shame really. I tried to help him but the man had depression and demons. Gambling is a dangerous drug but he’s in a better place now

 

[Georges Hefner]

I'm not sure. But there are reports of someone outside Edmen's house with a megaphone berating Edmen for his shitty cardio...

Nah hes not with us anymore. He still hasn’t called me back or messaged or anything. Is this the first time someone kill themself in Sherdog betting forum?