UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[Georges Hefner]

This was one of our last messages

 

[Thesnake101]

Is this the first time someone kill themself in Sherdog betting forum?

Probably not.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Probably not.

 

[guesswhoseback]

More than 50% of the fights will end via finish. I'm sure

na

 

[Kazda1]

So enough about the Demopolous/Amorim. What about the other decent sized women's underdog Andrade?

Is this just a set up where she gets countered the entire fight while she tries to land the knockout blow and maybe knocked out as a result? Is she just too slow for Silva?

Got to be honest, I could be wrong in feeling like if she just wrestled more, this fight would be easier. Thoughts?

 

[mkess101]

So enough about the Demopolous/Amorim. What about the other decent sized women's underdog Andrade?

Is this just a set up where she gets countered the entire fight while she tries to land the knockout blow and maybe knocked out as a result? Is she just too slow for Silva?

Got to be honest, I could be wrong in feeling like if she just wrestled more, this fight would be easier. Thoughts?

Andrade was probably written off a bit too soon after her KO losses, but IDK how live she is here. I agree sort of with the wrestling, but is she explosive enough anymore to close the distance without getting pieced up on her way in?
On the flipside IDK exactly how good Silva is. I mean..she's pretty good obviously. Good to where we should feel comfortable paying -240 or whatever vs a former champion who seems to still have SOMETHING left in the tank? Not sure.

 

[B.Goetz]

So enough about the Demopolous/Amorim. What about the other decent sized women's underdog Andrade?

Is this just a set up where she gets countered the entire fight while she tries to land the knockout blow and maybe knocked out as a result? Is she just too slow for Silva?

Got to be honest, I could be wrong in feeling like if she just wrestled more, this fight would be easier. Thoughts?

I don't think either fighter gets KO'd. I think Silva picks her apart in open range, and I don't really think Andrade has the wrestling to make it a ground fight.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Brady
1 inch reach advantage
7 years younger
Striking accuracy 53%
Strike landed per minute 3.55
Defense 61%
TDD Average 3.29
TDD Accuracy 57%
TDD Defense 87%

Burns
Striking accuracy 48%
Strike landed per minute 3.29
Defense 54%
TDD Average 2.24
TDD Accuracy 38%
TDD Defense 50%

 

[Georges Hefner]

Gilbert Burns 50% takedown defense is why hes going to lose

 

[Kazda1]

I don't think either fighter gets KO'd. I think Silva picks her apart in open range, and I don't really think Andrade has the wrestling to make it a ground fight.

Kind of thought Andrade gets picked apart too but don't know if it goes the full distance. Didn't think Xiaonan would knock her out and we see how that went. I just think the same thing might happen here.

 

[Georges Hefner]

This guy Angelo really knows his shit. His main event prediction was on point. He said Burns doesnt have the Jiu Jitsu that translates well to MMA because he only subbed Magny in like forever. Thats so true, Gilbert burns has overrated BJJ

 

[Georges Hefner]

Im very impressed with this Angelo analyst.

 

[Serge421]

This guy Angelo really knows his shit. His main event prediction was on point. He said Burns doesnt have the Jiu Jitsu that translates well to MMA because he only subbed Magny in like forever. Thats so true, Gilbert burns has overrated BJJ

I just subscribed to him

 

[PuertoRican]

Andre Lima was -110 for 20 days. Now he's -190
Petroski from -250 to -355
Spann from -278 to -355
Costa from -298 to -535
Brady from -110 to -190

 

[Macaque]

No way Petroski covers this line.

Before lines came out, I thought this would be close to evens and hoped Budka would open around 2,50 so he’d be bettable. Now, he’s 3,75.

People haven’t seen his fight with Azamat Bekoev, I guess.

4u Dylan Budka @3,75

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

No way Petroski covers this line.

Before lines came out, I thought this would be close to evens and hoped Budka would open around 2,50 so he’d be bettable. Now, he’s 3,75.

People haven’t seen his fight with Azamat Bekoev, I guess.

4u Dylan Budka @3,75

How is Budka going too win?

I cant think of a single path to victory because there is literally nothing he does better than Petroski.

Petroski is going to look -500 again and easily cover.

 

[Macaque]

How is Budka going too win?

I cant think of a single path to victory because there is literally nothing he does better than Petroski.

Petroski is going to look -500 again and easily cover.

Petroski is chinny and gassy. He is liable to getting bonked by Budka, who cracked Bekoev twice. Budka also has a decent kicking game and lead hook, while Petroski is all right hands. Budka is solid on the fence, and I could see a scenario similar to the Aaron Jeffery fight.

We’re talking about the man who got KO’d via hip bump by Jacob Malkoun. If that doesn’t worry you, by all means lay the juice on Petroski at -400.

I bet Petroski big his last fight because I respect his jiu-jitsu and top control, but Budka isn’t Josh Fremd. Fremd is skinny and weak, with no get-ups and little power. Budka’s jiu-jitsu is lacking, which gives me pause, but he’s strong and athletic and, when he does give up takedowns, he’ll get an underhook and wrestle up.

This habit might come back to bite him since Petroski has a solid front headlock series, but we’re talking about a +275 underdog (i.e. 26,6% implied probability).

I find it very hard not to give Budka at minimum a 33,3% chance. Personally, I cap him at about 35,0-40,0%.

 

[Jinx_AA]

This guy Angelo really knows his shit. His main event prediction was on point. He said Burns doesnt have the Jiu Jitsu that translates well to MMA because he only subbed Magny in like forever. Thats so true, Gilbert burns has overrated BJJ

Guys says he has 10k premium
Members yet he bets barely anything at all

Wolf tickets

I like he’s early and informative - but he barely bets … he’s really not a big gambler on the scene- just another one of us

 

[guesswhoseback]

Guys says he has 10k premium
Members yet he bets barely anything at all

Wolf tickets

I like he’s early and informative - but he barely bets … he’s really not a big gambler on the scene- just another one of us

That dude is a joke literally begs for more subscribers

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Personally, I cap him at about 35,0-40,0%.

If you cant come up with a concrete path to victory for a fighter then they aren't 35% to win.

This very much appears to be a fight where one fighter is slightly better than their opponent in every facet of MMA and when that is the case the underdog very rarely wins.