UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[Bakayoko]

^ Shit like this is why I stopped posting in here.

This guy wants to bet Budka and didn't like what I had to say so the way he is rationalizing it to himself is that I must be intoxicated or angry.

No bro, its just a bad bet, there isn't anything deeper to it but good luck anyway.

Man,you sound like some cult leader whacko that turns around everything normal people tell you that is logicaly wrong.
Good luck too you to.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Are you logging in drunk or drugged on this karate forum?
First you twist what mkess says and put words in his mouth he didn't say.
Then you're claiming the other guy can't find a path to victory for Budka,when he clearly names two paths you say he can't name them.
wtf is going on

He eat too much paella and drink too much Estrella

 

[Bakayoko]

He eat too much paella and drink too much Estrella

They put something in his paella he can't be this crazy

 

[Mackronus]

The worst WMMA fight on the card is once again the most talked about fight.

Never fails.

I also think Ashmouz is better everywhere, but I'm just worried about his cardio. If it's not an issue in this fight, then he might look like the best value on the card in retrospect.

Definitely the toughest fight to cap on this card.

I wish there was an explanation to this phenomenon. Just deep levels of passion, ire, and contention regarding the lowest level WMMA fight that everyone will immediately forget about once they end. Every damn card. I'm mostly a bystander but I come here to get a few bets, learn some angles for a few fights, and I leave having read 12 pages about Cindy Libermeister vs. Veronica Ivanovonov in a Apex night card opener. Crazy

 

[mkess101]

I wish there was an explanation to this phenomenon. Just deep levels of passion, ire, and contention regarding the lowest level WMMA fight that everyone will immediately forget about once they end. Every damn card. I'm mostly a bystander but I come here to get a few bets, learn some angles for a few fights, and I leave having read 12 pages about Cindy Libermeister vs. Veronica Ivanovonov in a Apex night card opener. Crazy

Libermeister via inverted gogoplata is a lock and fuck you if you disagree.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Wmma is for degenerates, if you are betting on it u should be ashamed

 

[Georges Hefner]

They put something in his paella he can't be this crazy

Hes on a coke fueled binge like Conor and jones

 

['Suga Daddy']

I just subscribed to him

He's awful at predictions but quite good at bets, so take from that what you will

 

[Georges Hefner]

He's awful at predictions but quite good at bets, so take from that what you will

 

[BigSteve]

6 pages of high-quality betting discussion

 

[mkess101]

6 pages of high-quality betting discussion

What's your take on how much you'd risk on a +300 play if you personally capped the dog around 60% to win?

 

[Thesnake101]

What's your take on how much you'd risk on a +300 play if you personally capped the dog around 60% to win?

1 dollar (canadian)

 

[Stat_Collector]

Any chance we see Burns get subbed?

It feels like he is approaching washed phase in his career. This could be like when Muniz fought Souza and he was coming off that ko loss to Holland and then Muniz broke Souza's arm. I can see a scenario where Brady just breaks his defense and catches him in a guillotine.

Burns last bjj match was a rnc loss to Barbosa and Brady beat Craig Jones who is elite.

This could be a sendoff retirement match for Burns.

 

[Thesnake101]

Any chance we see Burns get subbed?

It feels like he is approaching washed phase in his career. This could be like when Muniz fought Souza and he was coming off that ko loss to Holland and then Muniz broke Souza's arm. I can see a scenario where Brady just breaks his defense and catches him in a guillotine.

Burns last bjj match was a rnc loss to Barbosa and Brady beat Craig Jones who is elite.

This could be a sendoff retirement match for Burns.

Did you watch Brady vs Craig? The way he won was by maintaining top position and making sure he wasn't in danger, which I assume will be his gameplan here, not by outgrappling Craig or threatening him with anything worth noting. Leglocks were also banned for that fight which also played a big factor.

The Barbosa loss was also in 2021, same year he beat Lovato Jr and was still enough of a threat on the mat for Khamzat to get the hell away from there. Furthermore Brady couldn't sub Chiesa, a willing grappler who has been tapped 5 times in the UFC. Barbosa also has like 250 BJJ matches on record and over 70 sub wins.

Imo Gilbert has the finishing upside here, but if you were to play Sean getting the nod without the judges involved then KO would be the way I'd go. We know Gilbert doesn't have the best chin, age just makes that worse and there is still a chance that Brady doesn't try to grapple out of fear of either gassing out, or just respecting Burns' ground game.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Did you watch Brady vs Craig? The way he won was by maintaining top position and making sure he wasn't in danger, which I assume will be his gameplan here, not by outgrappling Craig or threatening him with anything worth noting. Leglocks were also banned for that fight which also played a big factor.

The Barbosa loss was also in 2021, same year he beat Lovato Jr and was still enough of a threat on the mat for Khamzat to get the hell away from there. Furthermore Brady couldn't sub Chiesa, a willing grappler who has been tapped 5 times in the UFC. Barbosa also has like 250 BJJ matches on record and over 70 sub wins.

Imo Gilbert has the finishing upside here, but if you were to play Sean getting the nod without the judges involved then KO would be the way I'd go. We know Gilbert doesn't have the best chin, age just makes that worse and there is still a chance that Brady doesn't try to grapple out of fear of either gassing out, or just respecting Burns' ground game.

rewatched Brady Chiesa and yeah he looked like shit in the 3rd round. But remember when a fighter becomes washed their sub defense goes with it as well. Souza had never been tapped before that either, and Muniz went to decision with Antonio Arroyo who had two sub losses prior.

In a 5 round fight, the later rounds, Burns could gas due to his age. As far as Chiesa, he was much taller and that made it hard for Brady to get his guillotine in 3 rounds, and I think that his best submission. Although I can see a scenario where Brady takes Burns back for long periods through out the match.

I admit it's a long shot, but if they give me some crazy high odds, i would not mind a small sprinkle unit bet. a rnd 4-5 sub prop.

With the expectation of Burns never tapping, it could be the perfect 'going against the narrative' type of bet.

I'll likely play it by the round as it covers both methods of finishing.

 

[sonhow]

Burns can most definitively get subbed. Theres no fighter who is completely unsubbable. With crazy odds I wouldnt mind a sub bet on Brady as unlikely as it is to happen.

 

[mkess101]

If Gilbert gets subbed, he's likely completely gassed at that point. Brady is a terrific top control grappler but he's not a Muniz-type guy who will snag an armbar out of nowhere.

IF (I'm not predicting this) Brady wins via sub my guess would be rd 4-5 arm triangle where he's just wrestle-fucked Gilbert for a lot of the fight and gets a sub because he's slightly less gassed. The issue is, Brady hasn't exactly shown any type of solid cardio himself. It just takes less energy to lay on top of a guy than to defend so I could see Burns being just absolutely done and Brady being tired AF but still able to lock in something.

 

[Thesnake101]

Tbh I doubt Gilbert gasses here. It's been years but he showed great cardio against Woodley for 5. If anything Gilbert might be a live bet spot after the first two rounds.

 

[mkess101]

Tbh I doubt Gilbert gasses here. It's been years but he showed great cardio against Woodley for 5. If anything Gilbert might be a live bet spot after the first two rounds.

He looked stuck in mud rd 3 vs JDM iirc. Gil was winning but became a statue and got smoked because of it?

Maybe I'm remembering wrong.

 

[Thesnake101]

He looked stuck in mud rd 3 vs JDM iirc. Gil was winning but became a statue and got smoked because of it?

Maybe I'm remembering wrong.

I'd have to watch it again, but while he did get rocked in the third, he managed to establish his grappling again before the last sequence where Jack caught him with a clean counter knee and melted him.

I also think Jack's style is a more tiring fight for Gilbert than what Brady brings to the table, but I could be wrong.