UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[B.Goetz]

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I don't know if people feel that it's too early to start the discussion, but I'd like to have the threads start when the lines drop if possible. Gives us a better chance of getting money down before the lines settle. Let me know what you think of that.

I took Brady (-167), but I'm second-guessing myself there. In theory he's a younger version of Burns, who is 38 now and coming off two losses. That's the one I'd most like feedback on.

Natalia Silva should comfortably out-strike Andrade. Took her at -250. Sucks that the cat is out of the bag as to how good Silva is. I hoped for better odds.

I also think Amorim is virtually incapable of losing to Demopolous. Demopolous is like Poppins without the boxing.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I also think Amorim is virtually incapable of losing to Demopolous. Demopolous is like Poppins without the boxing.

I have seen Vanessa Demopolous win four of her past five fights primarily using her striking whereas I have never seen Jacqueline Amorim land a single meaningful strike on the feet against any opponent in the UFC.

What I have seen is Amorim quit after five minutes, display terrible conditioning, and absolutely no striking ability.

Laying -400 on a guard puller with no cardio, nor heart, is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[mkess101]

I have seen Vanessa Demopolous win four of her past five fights primarily using her striking whereas I have never seen Jacqueline Amorim land a single meaningful strike on the feet against any opponent in the UFC.

What I have seen is Amorim quit after five minutes, display terrible conditioning, and absolutely no striking ability.

Laying -400 on a guard puller with no cardio, nor heart, is a disaster waiting to happen.

Wouldn't play her ML but depending on her sub line I'd consider it. You can say Amorim is a guard puller but she's landed TD's in her fights too (not the last one where she was taken down and got a quick sub from there).

Demopolous was taken down 5 times by Murata and Lil Monster seems to never shy away from grappling exchanges. But she'd be WAY out of her depth here and there's a decent chance Amorim subs her if there's any grappling at all here. She's just levels beyond her. Legit world champ.

Again, I'm NOT advocating a ML play on Amorim at these odds at all. But books sometimes juice WMMA to going the distance and imo this could be a spot where Amorim sub is far more likely than the odds indicate.

 

[sonhow]

Demopolous...
By split decision

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Wouldn't play her ML but depending on her sub line I'd consider it. You can say Amorim is a guard puller but she's landed TD's in her fights too (not the last one where she was taken down and got a quick sub from there).

Demopolous was taken down 5 times by Murata and Lil Monster seems to never shy away from grappling exchanges. But she'd be WAY out of her depth here and there's a decent chance Amorim subs her if there's any grappling at all here. She's just levels beyond her. Legit world champ.

Again, I'm NOT advocating a ML play on Amorim at these odds at all. But books sometimes juice WMMA to going the distance and imo this could be a spot where Amorim sub is far more likely than the odds indicate.

Murata was the 55kg Junior World Champion in freestyle wrestling and beat a future olympic gold medalist in the finals of that competition.

Amorim is a guard puller.

 

[mkess101]

Murata was the 55kg Junior World Champion in freestyle wrestling and beat a future olympic gold medalist in the finals of that competition.

Amorim is a guard puller.

Again, she's hit actual TD's in her fights too. You know, where she's the one on top? And it's not like Demopolous is some TDD savant that is a master at staying off her back.

And again, unlike Murata who can get TD's but do nothing with them...Amorim may only need one.

I'd need a decent + number to play it sure, but Amorim strangling Demopolous seems like it has a very decent chance of hitting.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Again, she's hit actual TD's in her fights too. You know, where she's the one on top? And it's not like Demopolous is some TDD savant that is a master at staying off her back.

And again, unlike Murata who can get TD's but do nothing with them...Amorim may only need one.

I'd need a decent + number to play it sure, but Amorim strangling Demopolous seems like it has a very decent chance of hitting.

I was responding to the OP saying Amorim is a lock which is absurd since she is a guard puller with poor conditioning, no striking, and has quit as recently as three fights ago.

This is far closer to a 50/50 fight than an 80/20 fight which is what Amorim''s betting line implies.

 

[B.Goetz]

I assumed that Amorim would win the striking because she has a 8.5" reach advantage. Demopolous only has one more inch of reach than McKenna, who was forced to go for takedowns and roll the dice with Amorim's BJJ. I see Demopolous and McKenna as very similar fighters.

When has Amorim gassed or quit, aside from against cardio machine Sam Hughes, who also just broke Dudakova the same way?

 

[mkess101]

I was responding to the OP saying Amorim is a lock which is absurd since she is a guard puller with poor conditioning, no striking, and has quit as recently as three fights ago.

This is far closer to a 50/50 fight than an 80/20 fight which is what Amorim''s betting line implies.

I know, and my reply to yours was to say that I don't like the ML at these odds (though I'd say it's like 66/33 Amorim) but that her sub line could have value. It wasn't really disagreement about the ML, just sort of adding a thought.

Edit: and yeah that first UFC fight she adrenaline dumped and went all out for a rd 1 finish that she didn't get (but was damn close).

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I assumed that Amorim would win the striking because she has a 8.5" reach advantage. Demopolous only has one more inch of reach than McKenna, who was forced to go for takedowns and roll the dice with Amorim's BJJ. I see Demopolous and McKenna as very similar fighters.

When has Amorim gassed or quit, aside from against cardio machine Sam Hughes, who also just broke Dudakova the same way?

Instead of assuming tape the fight next time because as you will see once you do Amorim has no striking, quit in her UFC debut after five minutes (where she was also lined as a massive favorite), and won her last fight off a guard pull.

I taped the fight a while ago and honestly believe Demopolous should be the favorite. Anyone betting Amorim at -400 does not understand what they are watching. Amorim is like Talita Alencar but with worse takedowns and striking theres no reason she should be a favorite over anyone in the UFC let alone -400 against an opponent who has won four of their past five UFC fights.

 

[B.Goetz]

I taped the fight a while ago and honestly believe Demopolous should be the favorite.

Will you be betting her at dog odds then? Because I think you will lose your money.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Will you be betting her at dog odds then? Because I think you will lose your money.

Of course.

Can I ask what lead you to believe Amorim could beat Demopolous because it didn't sound like you had taped the fight when you implied that Amorim was the better striker which is laughable because she has no striking?

 

[B.Goetz]

Of course.

Can I ask what lead you to believe Amorim could beat Demopolous because it didn't sound like you had taped the fight when you implied that Amorim was the better striker which is laughable because she has no striking?

I just went from memory, didn't tape the fights for this event. I don't think Amorim is a better striker, nor did I imply such. I do think it will be hard to out-point her given the enormous reach difference.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I do think it will be hard to out-point her given the enormous reach difference.

Amorim doesn't have any striking thats why she pulled guard so quickly when Cory McKenna began to light her up rather than strike a little to set up a takedown.

She has absolutely no chance of winning the fight if it stays on the feet.

0%

 

[mkess101]

Amorim doesn't have any striking thats why she pulled guard so quickly when Cory McKenna began to light her up rather than strike a little to set up a takedown.

She has absolutely no chance of winning the fight if it stays on the feet.

0%

Amorim's striking is absolutely bad. Demopolous isn't nearly as good as McKenna on the feet but she wouldn't need to be if the fight stays standing.

But Amorim obviously knows this and is gonna likely force Demopolous into some grappling situations. And it's not like Demopolous shies away from them. Maybe her camp drills it into her enough that she goes full sprawl n brawl and somehow avoids the mat completely. But I doubt it. And if it does go there, Demopolous will be in full on survival mode because she cannot hang with Amorim on the mat.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Amorim will
Choke demoopoulus worse then she’s ever gotten choked at the strip club

 

[Kazda1]

Amorim's striking is absolutely bad. Demopolous isn't nearly as good as McKenna on the feet but she wouldn't need to be if the fight stays standing.

But Amorim obviously knows this and is gonna likely force Demopolous into some grappling situations. And it's not like Demopolous shies away from them. Maybe her camp drills it into her enough that she goes full sprawl n brawl and somehow avoids the mat completely. But I doubt it. And if it does go there, Demopolous will be in full on survival mode because she cannot hang with Amorim on the mat.

Agree and disagree. I looked for a reason to back Demopolous last time out as I wanted to pull the trigger and just couldn't. I saw a fighter who as you said previously was known to engage in some sort of grappling exchange not do so (with the exception of an attempt at a takedown out of habit) and stay on the feet.

Amorim may only need one take down, but I've yet to see a takedown that wasn't a sophisticated guard pull. I may need to go back and watch again but out of all her fights I didn't even catch a trip takedown, just pulling someone down into guard.

I'm not saying it's a lock, but these odds are a little too far apart for me. Demopolous keeps this standing with some hard shots and she gets an easy victory in my eyes.

 

[mkess101]

Agree and disagree. I looked for a reason to back Demopolous last time out as I wanted to pull the trigger and just couldn't. I saw a fighter who as you said previously was known to engage in some sort of grappling exchange not do so (with the exception of an attempt at a takedown out of habit) and stay on the feet.

Amorim may only need one take down, but I've yet to see a takedown that wasn't a sophisticated guard pull. I may need to go back and watch again but out of all her fights I didn't even catch a trip takedown, just pulling someone down into guard.

I'm not saying it's a lock, but these odds are a little too far apart for me. Demopolous keeps this standing with some hard shots and she gets an easy victory in my eyes.

I can't imagine paying the Amorim ML juice. All I'm saying is that there might be a lot of people feeling great about big dog odds on Demo only to see one quick grappling exchange that she'd normally get out of turn into her having her back taken and her being strangled quickly.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I can't imagine paying the Amorim ML juice. All I'm saying is that there might be a lot of people feeling great about big dog odds on Demo only to see one quick grappling exchange that she'd normally get out of turn into her having her back taken and her being strangled quickly.

Why wouldn't people feel great about backing the more more well rounded fighter at big dog odds?

Amorim had the back of Sam Hughes for the entire first round and could not finish her. She also took till the 13th minute to finish Montserat Ruiz despite having many dominant positions throughout the fight. Amorim has great accolades in the grappling world but she does not have the type of lights out BJJ game you are prescribing to her.

Demopolous should be the favorite.

 

[mkess101]

Why wouldn't people feel great about backing the more more well rounded fighter at big dog odds?

Amorim had the back of Sam Hughes for the entire first round and could not finish her. She also took till the 13th minute to finish Montserat Ruiz despite having many dominant positions throughout the fight. Amorim has great accolades in the grappling world but she does not have the type of lights out BJJ game you are prescribing to her.

Demopolous should be the favorite.

She was extremely close to finishing Hughes and Sam has shown a lot of grit so her surviving isn't a huge surprise. She (Amorim) very obviously realized how badly she gassed with the adrenaline dump and chasing the finish and decided vs Ruiz to simply not give up position no matter what and to not chase a finish. Eventually she got it.

Again, -4xx is ridiculous and absolutely I'm not advocating a play on Amorim. But putting it out there that a +3xx dog should be favored imo is inviting people to make substantial plays on her and I think that's a bad idea. A small stab? Sure. But imo she should not be favored and there's a better chance she gets grapple fucked for 15 minutes or subbed than of winning.