UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[Georges Hefner]

I have Burns as -190 favorite (65% chance)

Styles make fights, I don’t see much paths for Brady. Im really good when it comes to underdogs

 

[PuertoRican]

I'd have to watch it again, but while he did get rocked in the third, he managed to establish his grappling again before the last sequence where Jack caught him with a clean counter knee and melted him.

I also think Jack's style is a more tiring fight for Gilbert than what Brady brings to the table, but I could be wrong.

I'd think Gilbert would want to keep this fight on the feet because he has the better striking and power. He just needs to defend the take downs from Brady and avoid getting held against the cage, and his striking should be enough to win the fight as long as he doesn't gas.

I think Brady and Burns have cardio issues, so I'm not interested in betting either of them right now.

 

[guesswhoseback]

What's your take on how much you'd risk on a +300 play if you personally capped the dog around 60% to win?

He said on his YouTube Chanell he never laid more then a 2 unit bet and since his unit sizes are now 500$ I'd assume most he'd risk is 1k

 

[burge13]

He said on his YouTube Chanell he never laid more then a 2 unit bet and since his unit sizes are now 500$ I'd assume most he'd risk is 1k

Think you've missed the point of mkess post on that one

He's taking the piss out of someone saying 60% chance of winning and +300 isn't worthy of a big bet

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Think you've missed the point of mkess post on that one

He's taking the piss out of someone saying 60% chance of winning and +300 isn't worthy of a big bet

Is he really taking the piss out of me or just continuing to embarrass himself by desperately trying to goad me into responding?

I don't need to wager more than 2u on a single fight because I know the same opportunity, or even a better one, will arise when a new set of odds is released which happens nearly every single day of the year. If I have a system that has increased my unit size 10x in four years why would I break it for a short term gain?

I know this may be hard to understand but all good things in life require discipline, long-term minded thinking, which is easy to do when you trust in your skills.

 

[BigSteve]

What's your take on how much you'd risk on a +300 play if you personally capped the dog around 60% to win?

Im conservative with my capping although if I was confident that the dog should be at least 60% worst case, than it would have to be a minimum 2u play

 

[BigSteve]

He said on his YouTube Chanell he never laid more then a 2 unit bet and since his unit sizes are now 500$ I'd assume most he'd risk is 1k

I never said this lol. I bet 2u a few times this year alone. I bet 2u on Brave a week ago as my first 500 bet. You can see it on the forum as a winning bet.

 

[mkess101]

Is he really taking the piss out of me or just continuing to embarrass himself by desperately trying to goad me into responding?

I don't need to wager more than 2u on a single fight because I know the same opportunity, or even a better one, will arise when a new set of odds is released which happens nearly every single day of the year. If I have a system that has increased my unit size 10x in four years why would I break it for a short term gain?

I know this may be hard to understand but all good things in life require discipline, long-term minded thinking, which is easy to do when you trust in your skills.

Actually bud, I was honestly curious about his reply. And if you look at his answer- he agrees with you and would only risk 2 units as well. To me that seems way too conservative and your claim that there are opportunities every week as good or better than +300 on what you deem should be a favorite sounds absurd but if that's actually how you feel, great. If you're capping was correct and you were getting those opportunities every card though, you wouldn't have 10x your BR in 4 years. You'd have millions and millions and be on an island somewhere. I guess unless you weren't ever increasing your unit size. Which would be pretty crazy if you were actually spotting fights every week where the books were off by 40% with their implied odds.

I didn't need you to reply at all. I asked Steve because I respect what he contributes here and he commented on how shitty this thread has been with mostly you and I arguing. So I wanted his take on the crux of the argument.

Edit: Steve said "at least" 2u so maybe he doesn't fully agree with you but it's still in the neighborhood.

 

[Thesnake101]

What's the thought on Gabriel Santos and Rong Zhu itd? I feel like they've got great matchups where they should be in control and have a massive edge on the feet compared to their foes, and it might translate into a TKO.

Gabe got a rough start with getting robbed against Murphy and then caught by Onama, but I still think he's a quality guy and will be looking to showcase that in a do-or-die situation.

With Rong Zhu on the other hand I'm mostly fading Padilla. Maybe I shouldn't since he sprung a big upset in his last one, but I kinda feel like he's a Khama Worthy type regional fighter in that he might cash as an underdog once or twice, but will inevitably end up getting blown up in a few fights and cut.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Think you've missed the point of mkess post on that one

He's taking the piss out of someone saying 60% chance of winning and +300 isn't worthy of a big b

I did get the point I was trying to be funny my thing is who cares let's not argue peace love happiness ahamdulia inshalla

 

[guesswhoseback]

I never said this lol. I bet 2u a few times this year alone. I bet 2u on Brave a week ago as my first 500 bet. You can see it on the forum as a winning bet.

On your YouTube u said ur units are 500$ and the biggest bet you ever placed was 2 units

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Actually bud, I was honestly curious about his reply. And if you look at his answer- he agrees with you and would only risk 2 units as well. To me that seems way too conservative and your claim that there are opportunities every week as good or better than +300 on what you deem should be a favorite sounds absurd but if that's actually how you feel, great. If you're capping was correct and you were getting those opportunities every card though, you wouldn't have 10x your BR in 4 years. You'd have millions and millions and be on an island somewhere. I guess unless you weren't ever increasing your unit size. Which would be pretty crazy if you were actually spotting fights every week where the books were off by 40% with their implied odds.

I didn't need you to reply at all. I asked Steve because I respect what he contributes here and he commented on how shitty this thread has been with mostly you and I arguing. So I wanted his take on the crux of the argument.

Edit: Steve said "at least" 2u so maybe he doesn't fully agree with you but it's still in the neighborhood.

A few weeks ago on Fury FC there was a +900 underdog (Koery Windham), one of the most decorated high school wrestlers in the history of New Mexico, that also had better striking and much better conditioning than his opponent. His opponent (Lester Batres Jr) had such bad conditioning that he was gassing in the middle of some of his amateur fights where the rounds are only three minutes long. Given all of these advantages I felt Windham should be a favorite in the neighborhood of 55-60%.

Windham despite holding all of these advantages lost 29-28 because his opponent wanted to win more. His opponent was willing to totally exhaust himself and didn't care how he won, just as long as he won, and in the end he did win.

These ^ are a dime in a dozen. If I bet a line every time I believed there was value on it I would go broke very quickly. Value often does not get there and good bets lose all the time which is why you need to carefully choose your spots and put your money in a strong position to win.

Hopefully you understand now why to be a long-term winner you must take a disciplined approach to betting.

 

[sonhow]

Bit off topic but sometimes theres a guy posting in mmadecisions comment section with the username ezflyer. Is it the same guy who used to be a mod here?

Made me think what happened to some of the old posters when I just used to lurk here. They go broke or just bored?

 

[Georges Hefner]

I did get the point I was trying to be funny my thing is who cares let's not argue peace love happiness ahamdulia inshalla

Alhamdullilah always

 

[Georges Hefner]

Bit off topic but sometimes theres a guy posting in mmadecisions comment section with the username ezflyer. Is it the same guy who used to be a mod here?

Made me think what happened to some of the old posters when I just used to lurk here. They go broke or just bored?

Mostly broke like what happened to @Sadistics . But I also think theres lots of unreported suicides involved with gambling. Remember last week I was worried about my best friend @DalchaLungiambula

 

[guesswhoseback]

A few weeks ago on Fury FC there was a +900 underdog (Koery Windham), one of the most decorated high school wrestlers in the history of New Mexico, that also had better striking and much better conditioning than his opponent. His opponent (Lester Batres Jr) had such bad conditioning that he was gassing in the middle of some of his amateur fights where the rounds are only three minutes long. Given all of these advantages I felt Windham should be a favorite in the neighborhood of 55-60%.

Windham despite holding all of these advantages lost 29-28 because his opponent wanted to win more. His opponent was willing to totally exhaust himself and didn't care how he won, just as long as he won, and in the end he did win.

These ^ are a dime in a dozen. If I bet a line every time I believed there was value on it I would go broke very quickly. Value often does not get there and good bets lose all the time which is why you need to carefully choose your spots and put your money in a strong position to win.

Hopefully you understand now why to be a long-term winner you must take a disciplined approach to betting.

Very well Said probably one of the smartest comments I've read on this forum

 

[guesswhoseback]

Bit off topic but sometimes theres a guy posting in mmadecisions comment section with the username ezflyer. Is it the same guy who used to be a mod here?

Made me think what happened to some of the old posters when I just used to lurk here. They go broke or just bored?

They leave this place because of all the idiots like george Hefner I don't blame them thats just not the type of person I am if people get that worked up from a complete idiot and makes them want to leave a forum or whatever it is in life then they got other issues besides idiot trolls on a forum and it's especially an easy fix on here block the clown

 

[mkess101]

A few weeks ago on Fury FC there was a +900 underdog (Koery Windham), one of the most decorated high school wrestlers in the history of New Mexico, that also had better striking and much better conditioning than his opponent. His opponent (Lester Batres Jr) had such bad conditioning that he was gassing in the middle of some of his amateur fights where the rounds are only three minutes long. Given all of these advantages I felt Windham should be a favorite in the neighborhood of 55-60%.

Windham despite holding all of these advantages lost 29-28 because his opponent wanted to win more. His opponent was willing to totally exhaust himself and didn't care how he won, just as long as he won, and in the end he did win.

These ^ are a dime in a dozen. If I bet a line every time I believed there was value on it I would go broke very quickly. Value often does not get there and good bets lose all the time which is why you need to carefully choose your spots and put your money in a strong position to win.

Hopefully you understand now why to be a long-term winner you must take a disciplined approach to betting.

I think you either are using inaccurate wording or don't really know what you're saying. How do you differentiate "value" from "putting your money in a strong position to win"?

I'm honestly not trying to be a dick here, but you realize that these are inherently the same thing right? Betting lines that have value IS a disciplined approach to betting. Doesn't mean you risk huge amounts on all of them of course.

If you aren't looking for value when placing bets...what exactly are you looking for??? It's not a loaded question, I'm genuinely perplexed.

 

[mkess101]

Very well Said probably one of the smartest comments I've read on this forum

Which part LOL? He might know what he's trying to say, but he's not articulating it well at all. There's nothing profound in saying "I'd go broke if I bet every fight where I think there's value". So...is that because you think your own ability to handicap fights isn't good? Or...if you're passing on fights where you see value, what exactly DOES make you bet on something?

 

[BigSteve]

Bit off topic but sometimes theres a guy posting in mmadecisions comment section with the username ezflyer. Is it the same guy who used to be a mod here?

Made me think what happened to some of the old posters when I just used to lurk here. They go broke or just bored?

I imagine they get 0 from this forum these days.