UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[ExitLUPin]

Whats the path for Brady here? Grappling one of the best BJJ guys in UFC? Burns is a better striker and has much more power. Burns gas tank is a problem but did we forget Brady gassed badly in 3rd round against Michael Chiesa another grappler and was getting chewed up in the clinch and striking?

Belal didn't even hurt him badly Belal never hurts anyone lol he just got broken down and likely some gassing there too.

Burns age is the only reason I can think for this line. I don't think he's fallen off that much compared to the guy who fought Khamzat and Kamaru. He had 1 functioning shoulder against Belal and was up 2-0 on Jack before the finish and Brady does not have a KO path here. He has 3 career KOs and 1 was a spinning backfist lol. So is he gonna submit Burns? If Brady had a great gas tank maybe you can convince me he can tap a gassed to shit Burns like Fluffy against Rodolfo but Bradys gas tank is bad too. Hes been past the 3rd round one time against Tajuddin Abdul Hakim a regional fighter who hasnt fought since.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I like Yanal KO +300 and Yanal inside +250. Peek is tough as shit but Yanal is a sharp counter puncher with some good power. Peek fights like a bar brawler thats been due for a KO loss for a long time and I think it happens here.

 

[EndlessCritic]

What makes you think Zhu has decent TDD?

His last fight against Shin Haraguchi?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Whats the path for Brady here? Grappling one of the best BJJ guys in UFC? Burns is a better striker and has much more power. Burns gas tank is a problem but did we forget Brady gassed badly in 3rd round against Michael Chiesa another grappler and was getting chewed up in the clinch and striking?

Belal didn't even hurt him badly Belal never hurts anyone lol he just got broken down and likely some gassing there too.

Burns age is the only reason I can think for this line. I don't think he's fallen off that much compared to the guy who fought Khamzat and Kamaru. He had 1 functioning shoulder against Belal and was up 2-0 on Jack before the finish and Brady does not have a KO path here. He has 3 career KOs and 1 was a spinning backfist lol. So is he gonna submit Burns? If Brady had a great gas tank maybe you can convince me he can tap a gassed to shit Burns like Fluffy against Rodolfo but Bradys gas tank is bad too. Hes been past the 3rd round one time against Tajuddin Abdul Hakim a regional fighter who hasnt fought since.

One thing to note about Burns is that Dan Hooker is the only fighter who has ever come close to submitting him in the UFC and the only fighter to ever attack a submission. Hooker managed to lock in a choke that was almost tight enough before Burns broke free. It was either a guillotine or an anaconda choke. Now, Sean Brady has an even nastier guillotine, and if he gets Burns in the same position, as Paul Felder has pointed out, it's usually over by that point. Brady taps everyone out when he gets them in his grip. And being that Burns likes to shoot takedowns, he could serve his head right into one. Fight Iq plays a big role in this fight.

With a 25-minute fight ahead, the +1000 odds on a submission prop could be a smart play.


Two fights to reference: Hooker/Burns and Brady/Aguilera

 

[mkess101]

Just a thought, but if you like Burns and have access to live betting that might be a better route. Brady is physically overwhelming and I think it's likely he takes Gilbert down early and controls him. Brady is one of the few guys that doesn't have to fear Gilbert's guard, and Brady is younger, bigger, and stronger.

But he has absolutely shown a shit gas tank multiple times and while Gilbert has too, if they're both gassed and it turns into a sloppy brawl that's where Gilbert will have a big edge imo.

 

[Thesnake101]

One thing to note about Burns is that Dan Hooker is the only fighter who has ever come close to submitting him in the UFC and the only fighter to ever attack a submission. Hooker managed to lock in a choke that was almost tight enough before Burns broke free. It was either a guillotine or an anaconda choke. Now, Sean Brady has an even nastier guillotine, and if he gets Burns in the same position, as Paul Felder has pointed out, it's usually over by that point. Brady taps everyone out when he gets them in his grip. And being that Burns likes to shoot takedowns, he could serve his head right into one. Fight Iq plays a big role in this fight.

With a 25-minute fight ahead, the +1000 odds on a submission prop could be a smart play.


Two fights to reference: Hooker/Burns and Brady/Aguilera

I don't think the choke was quite as tight as you say, and the big factor here is that Burns was rocked and forced to shoot a very telegraphed takedown from far away. Aguilera for his part would go on to get tapped even quicker in his next fight after the Brady loss. Even Matthews, the only other guy he's choked in the UFC, also got tapped 2 times before fighting Sean.

1000+ odds is value for just about any prop, but this isn't a Chiesa/Luque situation where you've got a grappler highly vulnerable to subs vs someone who's BJJ gets overlooked. Site I use has Gilbert sub prop at a higher value than Sean's, which makes sense seeing as Burns is the underdog, and honestly I'd rather take that just because of Brady's questionable gas tank and striking.

In my opinion he'd be the one to get a bad shot forced out of him late in the fight, but maybe his robotic striking has improved since the Belal fight tremendously. He's young enough to be making those strides, but I can't ever recall a Renzo Gracie Philly guy with good striking.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't think the choke was quite as tight as you say, and the big factor here is that Burns was rocked and forced to shoot a very telegraphed takedown from far away. Aguilera for his part would go on to get tapped even quicker in his next fight after the Brady loss. Even Matthews, the only other guy he's choked in the UFC, also got tapped 2 times before fighting Sean.

1000+ odds is value for just about any prop, but this isn't a Chiesa/Luque situation where you've got a grappler highly vulnerable to subs vs someone who's BJJ gets overlooked. Site I use has Gilbert sub prop at a higher value than Sean's, which makes sense seeing as Burns is the underdog, and honestly I'd rather take that just because of Brady's questionable gas tank and striking.

In my opinion he'd be the one to get a bad shot forced out of him late in the fight, but maybe his robotic striking has improved since the Belal fight tremendously. He's young enough to be making those strides, but I can't ever recall a Renzo Gracie Philly guy with good striking.

He still got put in that vulnerable spot, he wasn't really rocked, he had regained himself after getting wobbled and then ate a jab and shot a takedown into a choke hold. That scenario could play out even if he doesn't get rocked. It's his nature to shoot takedowns in every fight he's in.

You got to look at each sub loss based on the type of sub that is worst type for a specific fighter.

Certain fighters have poor back defense and get subbed from behind. Some get choked by darce when they shoot, others get subbed from the bottom with armbars and triangles.

The Dan Hooker fight is important to establish where in that category does Burns fit. He's not likely to get subbed via rnc or armbar/triangled from bottom. The most likely outcome is him shooting a takedown and getting tapped via guillotine , since it's the only example we have. As i said too, Souza had good bjj too and never been tapped and then got his arm broken. Burns is 37 and coming off a ko loss. This could be a fight where he looks washed and gets choked out. Brady as you said can't get a ko, so it really opens the door for two likely scenarios a decision or a sub. I'm only ruling out Burns because of his age and because he went grappling heavy in his lasts fights, it's a sign of a washed fighter when you see them start grappling more than usual.

 

[Thesnake101]

He still got put in that vulnerable spot, he wasn't really rocked, he had regained himself after getting wobbled and then ate a jab and shot a takedown into a choke hold. That scenario could play out even if he doesn't get rocked. It's his nature to shoot takedowns in every fight he's in.

You got to look at each sub loss based on the type of sub that is worst type for a specific fighter.

Certain fighters have poor back defense and get subbed from behind. Some get choked by darce when they shoot, others get subbed from the bottom with armbars and triangles.

The Dan Hooker fight is important to establish where in that category does Burns fit. He's not likely to get subbed via rnc or armbar/triangled from bottom. The most likely outcome is him shooting a takedown and getting tapped via guillotine , since it's the only example we have. As i said too, Souza had good bjj too and never been tapped and then got his arm broken. Burns is 37 and coming off a ko loss. This could be a fight where he looks washed and gets choked out. Brady as you said can't get a ko, so it really opens the door for two likely scenarios a decision or a sub. I'm only ruling out Burns because of his age and because he went grappling heavy in his lasts fights, it's a sign of a washed fighter when you see them start grappling more than usual.

Jacare was 41 though, and two years prior he got rocked by Hermansson, caught in a very tight choke he said just about put him out, and still managed to survive. I think that's a big difference here, we had seen some inkling's of Jacare failing in certain spots he wouldn't have when he was younger, and I also think getting subbed in the transition Muniz caught him in is more likely to happen to an aging fighter than a guillotine/headlock sub.

Brady has also only tapped two guys with guillotine chokes, and they were both middling regional dudes. Aguilera I know is a one-dimensional striker, but I'm not sure if Tanner was a wrestler or something. Just saying that I think odds are justified here in suggesting that Brady getting a sub is an extreme longshot.

Just a thought, but if you like Burns and have access to live betting that might be a better route. Brady is physically overwhelming and I think it's likely he takes Gilbert down early and controls him. Brady is one of the few guys that doesn't have to fear Gilbert's guard, and Brady is younger, bigger, and stronger.

But he has absolutely shown a shit gas tank multiple times and while Gilbert has too, if they're both gassed and it turns into a sloppy brawl that's where Gilbert will have a big edge imo.

Yeah, I'm looking to do something like that. Maybe a pre-fight stab on Gilbert KO/Dec and then his live ML depending on the fight looks.

 

[Macaque]

Budka looked like shit on the scales. Bad weight cut.



Cashed out.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Just a thought, but if you like Burns and have access to live betting that might be a better route. Brady is physically overwhelming and I think it's likely he takes Gilbert down early and controls him. Brady is one of the few guys that doesn't have to fear Gilbert's guard, and Brady is younger, bigger, and stronger.

But he has absolutely shown a shit gas tank multiple times and while Gilbert has too, if they're both gassed and it turns into a sloppy brawl that's where Gilbert will have a big edge imo.

In a 5 rounder, I don’t think Brady will grapple much. You have to pace yourself, kinda like how Borralho did last event. It’s going to be a striking match, with Burns getting the KO early

 

[Thesnake101]

In a 5 rounder, I don’t think Brady will grapple much. You have to pace yourself, kinda like how Borralho did last event. It’s going to be a striking match, with Burns getting the KO early

I think he'll shoot if Gilbert pressures him on the feet. You do have to pace yourself in a 5 rounder, but it's also very tiring to be fight off your backfoot constantly, especially if you're a grappler first and foremost.

 

[mkess101]

In a 5 rounder, I don’t think Brady will grapple much. You have to pace yourself, kinda like how Borralho did last event. It’s going to be a striking match, with Burns getting the KO early

Difference is imo that Brady just relies way more on his grappling than Caio. Brady is a better grappler than Caio but a MUCH worse striker. I agree, 5 rounds maybe will mean he tries to conserve some energy but I cannot see him accepting a pure striking match. It's not who he is.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Jacare was 41 though, and two years prior he got rocked by Hermansson, caught in a very tight choke he said just about put him out, and still managed to survive. I think that's a big difference here, we had seen some inkling's of Jacare failing in certain spots he wouldn't have when he was younger, and I also think getting subbed in the transition Muniz caught him in is more likely to happen to an aging fighter than a guillotine/headlock sub.

Brady has also only tapped two guys with guillotine chokes, and they were both middling regional dudes. Aguilera I know is a one-dimensional striker, but I'm not sure if Tanner was a wrestler or something. Just saying that I think odds are justified here in suggesting that Brady getting a sub is an extreme longshot.

Yeah, I'm looking to do something like that. Maybe a pre-fight stab on Gilbert KO/Dec and then his live ML depending on the fight looks.

you bring up good points. but its a fight where i have a grappler who prefers to grapple and achieved many dominate positions grappling heavy. I’ve made up my mind already fading Burns so I fond this the best way to play Brady for 1000+

At the end if the day Brady will at some point attack lots of subs and not just lay and pray. That is all i can ask for if playing a 1000+ prop, it’s a fighter with high sub attacks . 25 mins changes the dynamic too.

 

[BigSteve]

His last fight against Shin Haraguchi?

Lol dude. This whole time i thought he was talking about Yi zha instead of Rong Zhu. Disregard everything, he does have good TDD and I am big on him at an earlier line.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Lol dude. This whole time i thought he was talking about Yi zha instead of Rong Zhu. Disregard everything, he does have good TDD and I am big on him at an earlier line.

Who is Nadia Kassem Fighting Next?

https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Nadia-Kassem-Xiaonan-Yan-to-Clash-at-UFC-243-in-Melbourne-158971 Cole Shelton of Sherdog claims that Kassem is fighting Yan Xioanan per the above article which links to Kassem's instagram. However, Kassem's instagram post does not include the name of her...

forums.sherdog.com

It's okay. A sherdog reporter once couldn't tell apart Yan Xioanan from Ji Yeon Kim.

 

[PuertoRican]

Lol dude. This whole time i thought he was talking about Yi zha instead of Rong Zhu. Disregard everything, he does have good TDD and I am big on him at an earlier line.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Lol dude. This whole time i thought he was talking about Yi zha instead of Rong Zhu. Disregard everything, he does have good TDD and I am big on him at an earlier line.

No video this week ?

 

[Georges Hefner]

I think he'll shoot if Gilbert pressures him on the feet. You do have to pace yourself in a 5 rounder, but it's also very tiring to be fight off your backfoot constantly, especially if you're a grappler first and foremost.

Yeah and Bradys wrestling sucks. Don’t let his last fight fool you. Gastelum has bad TDD. Magny mauled him as well at welterweight

 

[Dooze]

Anyone able to talk to Isaac Dulgarian Vs Brendon Marotte?

Not heard of Brendon before, I think I might have watched the Dulgarian Vs CeeRod fight but don't really remember anything about it.

The odds seem ridiculous though, possibly the biggest favourite/largest underdog I've ever seen in UFC. Its bigger than boxing squash match odds territory and it's for a middle of the card fight on a middle of the road fight night card between a fighter who is 1-1 in the UFC and fighter who is 0-1 in the UFC.

I don't think I'd bet prime Jones at those odds against anyone in the LHW division, so I'm struggling to see how this has happened.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Not heard of Brendon before, I think I might have watched the Dulgarian Vs CeeRod fight but don't really remember anything about it.

The odds seem ridiculous though, possibly the biggest favourite/largest underdog I've ever seen in UFC. Its bigger than boxing squash match odds territory and it's for a middle of the card fight on a middle of the road fight night card between a fighter who is 1-1 in the UFC and fighter who is 0-1 in the UFC.

I don't think I'd bet prime Jones at those odds against anyone in the LHW division, so I'm struggling to see how this has happened.

Dulgarian dominated Ceerod in rounds 1 and 2 and somehow lost a decision. It was a robbery.

Based on DQ risk alone stay away.