UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

[Stat_Collector]

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 318 took place Saturday, July 19, 2025 with 14 fights at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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Max Holloway (-115) vs. Dustin Poirier (-105) - Lightweight - For Holloway’s BMF title
Paulo Costa (+225) vs. Roman Kopylov (-275) - Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-410) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+315) - Welterweight
Dan Ige (-180) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (+150) - Featherweight
Michael Johnson (+400) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-575) - Lightweight
Kyler Phillips (+155) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (-180) - Bantamweight
Marvin Vettori (+185) vs. Brendan Allen (-230) - Middleweight
Francisco Prado (-140) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (125+) - Welterweight
Ateba Gautier (-550) vs. Robert Valentin (+420) - Middleweight
Adam Fugitt (+430) vs. Islam Dulatov (-625) - Welterweight
Jimmy Crute (-250) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+210) - Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (-230) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+190) - Heavyweight
Brunno Ferreira (-645) vs. Jackson McVey (+450) - Middleweight
Carli Judice (-260) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+215) - Women’s Flyweight

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[Marko Atanasovik]

Prachnio +250
Both are not in an ideal position, but Prachnio can always rely on his output.

 

[WT3]

I've got a Vettori and Pitbull parlay nothing big just getting my feet wet. UFC after this one is the one I'm really focusing on there are some underdogs I see winning.

 

[XociDe]

I think Costa is gonna break and finish Kopylov. Kop has gassed in every fight I've ever seen and Costa has promised the return of his terminator style. He's also just an overall better fighter imo. Has had a rough few years in terms of activity but he's not old and was once elite. Kopylov was holding on for dear life against Almeida and got taken to the depths of hell by Chris Curtis. -300 is fookin insane.

Zellhuber at -350 was good but he's now like -500. He should win though.

I definitely like Prado at those odds.

I've faded Allen hard in recent fights but I think he beats a shot to bits Vettori.

I'm picking Pitbull but don't think I can bet on a 38 year old 145er.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Costa is gonna break and finish Kopylov. Kop has gassed in every fight I've ever seen and Costa has promised the return of his terminator style. He's also just an overall better fighter imo. Has had a rough few years in terms of activity but he's not old and was once elite. Kopylov was holding on for dear life against Almeida and got taken to the depths of hell by Chris Curtis. -300 is fookin insane.

Zellhuber at -350 was good but he's now like -500. He should win though.

I definitely like Prado at those odds.

I've faded Allen hard in recent fights but I think he beats a shot to bits Vettori.

I'm picking Pitbull but don't think I can bet on a 38 year old 145er.

I've upgraded the lines now, here are a side by side if anyone wants to track line movement.

Opening lines
Max Holloway (+130) vs. Dustin Poirier (-150) - Lightweight - For Holloway’s BMF title
Paulo Costa (+250) vs. Roman Kopylov (-300) - Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-350) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+285) - Welterweight
Dan Ige (-130) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (+110) - Featherweight
Michael Johnson (+285) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-350) - Lightweight
Kyler Phillips (+170) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (-200) - Bantamweight
Marvin Vettori (+170) vs. Brendan Allen (-200) - Middleweight
Francisco Prado (+160) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (-185) - Welterweight
Ateba Gautier (-400) vs. Robert Valentin (+330) - Middleweight
Adam Fugitt (+285) vs. Islam Dulatov (-350) - Welterweight
Jimmy Crute (-300) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+250) - Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (-286) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+246) - Heavyweight
Brunno Ferreira (-350) vs. Jackson McVey (+285) - Middleweight
Carli Judice (-260) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+215) - Women’s Flyweight

current based off tapology
Max Holloway (-115) vs. Dustin Poirier (-105) - Lightweight - For Holloway’s BMF title
Paulo Costa (+225) vs. Roman Kopylov (-275) - Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-410) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+315) - Welterweight
Dan Ige (-180) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (+150) - Featherweight
Michael Johnson (+400) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-575) - Lightweight
Kyler Phillips (+155) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (-180) - Bantamweight
Marvin Vettori (+185) vs. Brendan Allen (-230) - Middleweight
Francisco Prado (-140) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (125+) - Welterweight
Ateba Gautier (-550) vs. Robert Valentin (+420) - Middleweight
Adam Fugitt (+430) vs. Islam Dulatov (-625) - Welterweight
Jimmy Crute (-250) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+210) - Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann (-230) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+190) - Heavyweight
Brunno Ferreira (-645) vs. Jackson McVey (+450) - Middleweight
Carli Judice (-260) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+215) - Women’s Flyweight

Prado and Max are the only ones who have switched from dogs to favorites.

Money has come into these dogs : Phillips, Costa, Brzeski, Prachnio,

Most have double downed on : Ferreira, Zellhuber, Ateba,

 

[Guld]

For the favs I like Allen, Zellhuber, and Holland
For the evens I like Ige and Max (assuming he bulks up properly like he did with Gaethje)
For the dogs I like Costa.

I'll parlay the favs, and put single bets on the others.

 

[guidi]

Spann has been on a rough patch but should have enough to take out Brzeski, good bounce back chance for Spann probably wins in the first submission may be good odds when their out.

 

[BigSteve]

Spann has been on a rough patch but should have enough to take out Brzeski, good bounce back chance for Spann probably wins in the first submission may be good odds when their out.

If he doesn't come in pregnant again at HW

 

[Stat_Collector]

Vetori seems tempting, i think he's the better grappler when it comes to wrestling for position.

 

['Suga Daddy']

Vetori seems tempting, i think he's the better grappler when it comes to wrestling for position.

Yeah plus Allen loves throwing himself on bottom then being exasperated when he loses the decision

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah plus Allen loves throwing himself on bottom then being exasperated when he loses the decision

he almost lost to Malkoun, and i remember sweating that one because i picked him to win. He's more of a bjj guy than a wrestler. I also think about all the rounds that Marvin has been through. with top 5 guys.

 

[Dooze]

Unless Allen can hit a takedown on Marvin I'm not really sure how much grappling actually happens here. I feel like Marvin has fallen in love with his striking, he's shot two takedowns in his last 4 fights - or more to the point, 2 in his last 80 minutes in the Octagon. I think Marvin will feel like he's the better striker and just look to walk down Allen and throw down confident in his meat head ability to not get knocked out and given his lack of KO power, probably do it for 15 minutes to another decision.

With that said i thought similar for the Matthews fight that he lost interest in grappling and was happy slugging it out.

 

[Guld]

Unless Allen can hit a takedown on Marvin I'm not really sure how much grappling actually happens here. I feel like Marvin has fallen in love with his striking, he's shot two takedowns in his last 4 fights - or more to the point, 2 in his last 80 minutes in the Octagon. I think Marvin will feel like he's the better striker and just look to walk down Allen and throw down confident in his meat head ability to not get knocked out and given his lack of KO power, probably do it for 15 minutes to another decision.

With that said i thought similar for the Matthews fight that he lost interest in grappling and was happy slugging it out.

Regardless of the winner, it does feel like that one should go to the scorecards.

 

[Dooze]

Yeah I'll happily play the fgtd if it's reasonably priced. I don't think either have the power to stop the other although I think Marvin is the more likely to hurt Allen than the other way around and like I said I don't see much grappling happening.

I think a 29-28 either way or possible split decision.

 

[magpie878]

I think Costa is gonna break and finish Kopylov. Kop has gassed in every fight I've ever seen and Costa has promised the return of his terminator style. He's also just an overall better fighter imo. Has had a rough few years in terms of activity but he's not old and was once elite. Kopylov was holding on for dear life against Almeida and got taken to the depths of hell by Chris Curtis. -300 is fookin insane.

I remember thinking (and betting) that Costa would finish Rockhold. People think *every* fight is his bounceback fight, be careful. Sure, he might win, but he's content to be a social media jokester. Costa has promised something? What's THAT worth? I don't how he's still getting high placement on cards.

And when exactly was he considered elite? Beating old Romero by decision? He was definitely a hyped up and comer, but elite? Come on.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I feel Prado is a trap fight. Undersized.

I think even fat Ryan Spann wins here, how is he any different than Kennedy?


Pitbull is capable of grounding Ige and putting him in a body triangle for long periods.

No faith in Kyler, he's a flake, shows up like a world beater sometimes, and loses like a bum against mid fighters like Paiva.

 

[jnes]

I feel Prado is a trap fight. Undersized.

I think even fat Ryan Spann wins here, how is he any different than Kennedy?


Pitbull is capable of grounding Ige and putting him in a body triangle for long periods.

No faith in Kyler, he's a flake, shows up like a world beater sometimes, and loses like a bum against mid fighters like Paiva.

Kyler probably wins round 1 at a decent clip. Could be a decent live betting spot since Vinicius grits down and throws hard for 15 minutes.

 

[XociDe]

I remember thinking (and betting) that Costa would finish Rockhold. People think *every* fight is his bounceback fight, be careful. Sure, he might win, but he's content to be a social media jokester. Costa has promised something? What's THAT worth? I don't how he's still getting high placement on cards.

And when exactly was he considered elite? Beating old Romero by decision? He was definitely a hyped up and comer, but elite? Come on.

I don't really care enough to argue. Kopylov has been struggling with unranked opponents and Costa has been fighting nothing but top guys (excluding Luke).

I'm not like betting the house on him or anything but I think there's a lot of value in those odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't really care enough to argue. Kopylov has been struggling with unranked opponents and Costa has been fighting nothing but top guys (excluding Luke).

I'm not like betting the house on him or anything but I think there's a lot of value in those odds.

i agree, anyone who has seen the Whitaker/Costa fight should see the value there. It really could have gone either way. and he had a high clip fight with Strickland for 5 rounds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Kyler probably wins round 1 at a decent clip. Could be a decent live betting spot since Vinicius grits down and throws hard for 15 minutes.

i honestly see Olly winning 30-27 , unless kyler takes him down.

Vinicius just has much better boxing and solid tdd