Best PP/Underdog plays imo:
PP:
Maverick over 50.5 sig strikes--this is by far the best line imo
Lemos over 75.5 Fantasy score (if she wins, this is basically a guaranteed cover but there's chance she could cover even in losing if for example Dern spams bad TD's and Lemos gets a bunch of takedowns defended plus lands a decent amount of strikes).
Hernandez over 2.5 takedowns--BOL has this set at 3 (though it is +115 for over), and UD has it 2.5 but only at .85x payout so they favor the over as well. PP is where the value is if you think Fluffy can get 3 or more TD's.
Merab over 61.5 sig strikes
Garry under 93.5 Fantasy score--even if he wins, it's likely a decision where he wins via striking from distance. Neal won't shoot TD's and allow Ian to score Fantasy points via takedowns defended. Garry won't score any way other than landed strikes. No TD's, sub attempts, etc. If he finds a KO then he'll cover, if not and he wins by decision (and assuming no knockdowns, TD's, sub attempts etc) he would need to land about 115 sig strikes to cover this FS. Possible, but unlikely IMO. Especially because Garry will need to be more cautious than he was vs say Magny given Neal's power.
UD:
Merab under 70.55 Fantasy Score (I got it at under 72.55 but it's dropped since then). The math doesn't add up. The fight is heavily favored to go the distance. So assuming Merab wins by decision, that's 10 points. His sig strike line is at 62.5 on UD. Say he gets 70, that's 35 more points (.5 per ss landed on this site). Takedown line is set at 3.5, so let's say he gets 5 takedowns, that's 25 more points. He's still at 70 and doesn't cover, as this site doesn't give points for TDD etc. Merab attempting a sub is very unlikely, as is him knocking Henry down. And even with his pace, I think it's somewhat unlikely that Merab covers both his TD and sig strike line. Probably one or the other, but not both. I can easily see a fight where he's pressuring Henry and holding him against the cage for long stretches which easily win him rounds but score him nothing on this site and he wins 30-27 across the board and doesn't come close to covering this FS. (Obviously if Henry pulls the upset, this will cash).
(These final 2 are in the "rivals" section where the site gives handicaps):
Merab -9.5 sig strikes vs Cejudo sig strikes. Line should be much wider imo. Merab has easily covered this in every fight in the UFC since his first one (in other words, in 10 consecutive fights he's outlanded his opponent by 10 or more sig strikes). There's absolutely zero reason to think he won't land a ton more sig strikes than Henry. He's busier, never slows down, will be the one pushing the pace. Barring Henry clipping him and finishing within 2 rounds, this should easily cover imo. (You obviously cannot play this in a parlay with Merab under FS, so you'd need to choose/mix and match which one you'd play).
Maverick -3.5 sig strikes vs Lee sig strikes. Maverick has covered this in each of her UFC wins (in her 5 wins outlanded her opponent by 4 or more ss). She's a 2-1 favorite, and likely the one to get top position via takedowns if any happen. In WMMA, they count sig strikes from top position far more than they do the men (no idea why, but they do). If Maverick takes Lee down, she will likely land plenty from top position and cover this easily. She may well cover easily even if it stays standing the whole time.
That's all I've got. GL.
