UFC 298, Feb 17, California

[MidgardSerpent]

Going big on Nakamura finish -185. His ML is -1200 and I dont see how this goes to the cards.

Just taped Vera.... He is horrible. Hes been fighting for a decade and makes his UFC debut at 36yo as a BW?

Showcase fight.

Marcos Hogerio sub +600 too. Why not.

He was also on TUF 31 (the one with Chandler and McGregor), he was decisioned in the first part of the show by Brad Katona. Don't remember any specifics about him though.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

No. Merab's nickname is perfect for him, it's what he is. A machine. Henry isn't the same guy and Merab's pace will likely suffocate him. Fluke KO is Henry's only chance imo.

My money is on merab Decision as I see this fight going to the distance 9/10 times.
However I can see a scenario where Merab spams takedowns with little to no success holding CCC down while eating the bigger shots and the fights ends being a close decision. It's only 3 rounds and Cejudo should not fade in 3 rounds.
Hope it's a clear/easy decision for Merab tho.

 

[Guld]

My money is on merab Decision as I see this fight going to the distance 9/10 times.
However I can see a scenario where Merab spams takedowns with little to no success holding CCC down while eating the bigger shots and the fights ends being a close decision. It's only 3 rounds and Cejudo should not fade in 3 rounds.
Hope it's a clear/easy decision for Merab tho.

Going the distance seems very likely, regardless of the winner.

 

[mkess101]

Going the distance seems very likely, regardless of the winner.

It's priced pretty accordingly though.

 

[usernamee]

bet on Volk by DEC and Topuria by KO

 

[Psychojoe86]

bet on Volk by DEC and Topuria by KO

The over/under is 3.5 it might be wise to bet the over. Two very durable guys, with Volk getting a potential late finish imo

 

[Naught2Sixty]

No. Merab's nickname is perfect for him, it's what he is. A machine. Henry isn't the same guy and Merab's pace will likely suffocate him. Fluke KO is Henry's only chance imo.

Hard to argue that. Merab should roll pretty much everyone that doesn't kill him until he pulls a Cain Velasquez and falls off after an injury.

 

[mkess101]

Hard to argue that. Merab should roll pretty much everyone that doesn't kill him until he pulls a Cain Velasquez and falls off after an injury.

Great comparison actually. Wouldn't have thought of it because of the weight class difference but it's really solid because the gap in pace and cardio between them and the field is similar.

 

[sonhow]

Tafa out

But Tafa steps in!

 

[mkess101]

Tafa out

But Tafa steps in!

Having your brother's back...

 

[Stat_Collector]

I played Rodolfo last week and taking shot at Kopylov this week. I believe Rodolfo is bit of a headcase. When things are trending to go well, everything goes well. Hernandes is more consitent but I think he has fought oppostion that is similar level to Kopylovs. Then it becomes a game of who manages to impose their will on another.

If Hern wins it and wins it easily Im not surprised at all. He has looked very good in his last 4 wins as well. I just like what I see from Roman, looks like a different guy from his debut.

id have to see some kind of improvement in td defense, a new wrestling coach, a grappling tournament where he won it, training with an elite grappler. It's a leap of fate to assume he will be ready for Fluff's grappling, he's historically lost these machups, i'm kinda just looking at it like a bot making a mathematical prediction based on history. Hernandez could get dropped like the Holland fight, but he's made improvements since then too. who knows, i'd give Kop a ko bust chance.

 

[Stat_Collector]

CCC/Mirab

The activity is all on Mirab, all those years training, while cejudo was podcasting with Tyson. I don't see Cejudo recapturing his old form, he's gotten softer and talked about retirement if he loses. All historic indicators suggest Mirab should out work Henry like he did Yan.

 

[mkess101]

CCC/Mirab

The activity is all on Mirab, all those years training, while cejudo was podcasting with Tyson. I don't see Cejudo recapturing his old form, he's gotten softer and talked about retirement if he loses. All historic indicators suggest Mirab should out work Henry like he did Yan.

Pretty much. Seems like such a simple fight to break down. Merab pushing pace, lots of clinch work, maybe some level changes mixed in. Landing volume but likely not much threat of finishing. 30-27 across the board and everyone wondering exactly what the purpose of the fight was.

 

[Psychojoe86]

Tafa steps in! Random but awesome lol

 

[Don Sharpe]

Alexander Volkanovski (26-3) vs. Ilia Topuria (14-0)

Despite coming off a bad knockout loss to Islam Makhachev last October, I am backing Volkanovski to retain the featherweight belt. It won’t be easy as Topuria is as legit as they come but I have a feeling he gets it done.

Pick: Alexander Volkanovski ML (-120)



Robert Whittaker (24-7) vs. Paulo Costa (14-2)

Whittaker has been unstoppable for almost the last 10 years except for losses to Israel Adesanya (X2) and Dricus Du Plessis. There is no shame in losing to these men as they are both top tier fighters. On the other hand Costa has fought just once a year the last 6 years and not fighting at all in 2023. He also has a loss to Adesanya and another to Marvin Vettori who Whittaker beat in 2022. This is a close fight but I will back Costa to get the job done.

Pick: Paulo Costa ML (+195)



Merab Dvalishvili (16-4) vs. Henry Cejudo (16-3)

There is a simple rule I follow for Cejudo fights and that is ABC – Always Bet Cejudo. He retired in his prime and in his first fight back he lost a narrow split decision to then champion Aljamain Sterling. Merab has been on quite the streak in recent years but I believe Cejudo has the skills to win a clear decision here.

Pick: Henry Cejudo ML (+195)



Zhang Mingyang (16-6) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (15-5)

Brendson Ribeiro got signed to the UFC after a wild knockout on the contender series where he was also the biggest underdog of the season. I’m not so familiar with his opponent Zhang Mingyang but I will take a chance to back Ribeiro at underdog odds again after winning massively on his last bout.

Pick: Brendson Riberio ML (+105)

 

[PuertoRican]

Tafa out

But Tafa steps in!

Sucks for me.

I made a DraftKings team with Tafa, but I can't edit or delete it because I'm currently in Taiwand the app doesn't work in Asia.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Pretty much. Seems like such a simple fight to break down. Merab pushing pace, lots of clinch work, maybe some level changes mixed in. Landing volume but likely not much threat of finishing. 30-27 across the board and everyone wondering exactly what the purpose of the fight was.

Spot on Henry would have to be gifted a bad decision to pull this one out. LIke the type that goes viral on twitter and has every bettor losing their mind.

 

[JC615]

I'm not convinced Merab's gonna be able to keep Henry down. I think this fight will be close.

 

[Jinx_AA]

I'm not convinced Merab's gonna be able to keep Henry down. I think this fight will be close.

No1 is keeping the other down - you’re right

So it comes down to volume - and one side clearly has the advantage

Henry’s already announced his retirement

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Anybody like dog odds on ccc?

Rumor has it that he had a bad camp, that’s why the line moved

3 rounder I’ll probably take a shot on cejudo. I mean who is playing merab at -270? Lol
The line has gotten way out of hand

When have we ever seen cejudo get outclassed to warrant a line like that? He almost beat aljo after an almost four year layoff.

Going to be on some dogs here. Sure haven’t bet any favorites