UFC 298, Feb 17, California

[Stat_Collector]

I'd like to add too, Merab could fail to takedown Henry. That doesn't mean Henry wont gas. Defending takedowns blows your cardio, and eventually causes you to get tagged even more. Merab doesn't care if he fails to take you down. He will do it just to throw you off your game.

 

[mkess101]

I'd like to add too, Merab could fail to takedown Henry. That doesn't mean Henry wont gas. Defending takedowns blows your cardio, and eventually causes you to get tagged even more. Merab doesn't care if he fails to take you down. He will do it just to throw you off your game.

Anyone who doesn't believe this should watch Merab vs Yan again. Sure, Merab hit 11 TD's. Yan also stuffed (not kidding) THIRTY EIGHT other TD attempts. Merab shot FORTY NINE takedowns in 5 rounds. And it's exactly right that he doesn't care if he gets stuffed. It's just another aspect of weaponizing cardio.

 

[mkess101]

The problem with Merab is his lack of punching power or any real threat on the feet. I can see Cejudo stealing rounds by landing some really impactful shots that outweigh Merab’s fence stalling in the eyes of the judges. Cejudo came back after a super long layoff and arguably beat a really tricky champ who was much bigger than him. You could tell he was struggling with Sterling’s reach, but that won’t be as much of a problem against Merab. If it were 5 rounds I’d definitely lean more towards Merab, but I think Henry will be able to do enough in 3 rounds to win.

I mean, obviously he doesn't have one shot stopping power but let's not act like all he does is cage stall and do no damage...

 

[Dooze]

Yeah I'm not really expecting Merab to be able to take Cejudo down and ground him for minutes at a time but the main thing with his cardio is he's going to be relentless in shooting a takedown and making you work to defend it.

If his takedown game was based on low numbers of shots where he tires or noticeably slows down if he doesn't ground you and that affects his output, it'd be a concern going against Cejudo who could prevent takedowns.

As it is though the man doesn't seem to slow down at all. He'll be relentless moving forward. His striking has come on leaps and bounds and to match his forward pressure and relentless cardio he has a fantastic chin if he does get hit coming in.

The Yan and Aldo fights answered a lot of questions for me, particularly the Yan fight about how he deals with other fighter who have fantastic pressure - the fact that it doesn't seem to affect him and he just continues to move forward undeterred is huge. If you can't handle his pressure he'll drown you and even if you can, it'll leave you doing little more than defending.

CCC at the top of his game was fantastic and I think maybe could have given Merab a tougher fight. I think he's out of his prime (albeit still great) and if he wins this fight it's by offensive wrestling given defending takedowns is the only potential question mark for Merab since we rarely see people try to ground him. Other than that I think Merab can out strike CCC, is probably faster now, is stronger and has better cardio.

I think the odds are probably about right given CCC's quality but I think I'd have Merab as a favourite against any BW on the planet at this point.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Barriault has a crazy gas tank, his nickname is "powerbar" because he prides himself on cardio. And Fluffy hit 3 TD's on round 1 vs him anyway. And vs Fremd, Hernandez hit 4 in round 1.

He's taking guys down easily enough early in fights. The wearing them down comes into that they have a harder and harder time getting back up as the fight goes on.

What do you think about his takedown game now? I am not impressed at all... His pace is insane and he never stop with his intentions for takedown, but he is not to good wrestler in technical way.

 

[mkess101]

What do you think about his takedown game now? I am not impressed at all... His pace is insane and he never stop with his intentions for takedown, but he is not to good wrestler in technical way.

Huh? I never said he was some elite technical wrestler with amazing TD's. I literally said he's relentless and his endless cardio allows him to fail on one TD after another but continue to push and grind and get them. And...that's exactly what happened.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Huh? I never said he was some elite technical wrestler with amazing TD's. I literally said he's relentless and his endless cardio allows him to fail on one TD after another but continue to push and grind and get them. And...that's exactly what happened.

Nope don't twist your words. I said he breaks his opponent with high pace of wrestling and pressure. You try to explain me why he have good takedown game.

Takedown Game, Pressure and Pace are 3 different components, u can't mix that in your favor.

I quote you - Barriault has a crazy gas tank, his nickname is "powerbar" because he prides himself on cardio. And Fluffy hit 3 TD's on round 1 vs him anyway. And vs Fremd, Hernandez hit 4 in round 1.

 

[mkess101]

Nope don't twist your words. I said he breaks his opponent with high pace of wrestling and pressure. You try to explain me why he have good takedown game.

Takedown Game, Pressure and Pace are 3 different components, u can't mix that in your favor.

I quote you - Barriault has a crazy gas tank, his nickname is "powerbar" because he prides himself on cardio. And Fluffy hit 3 TD's on round 1 vs him anyway. And vs Fremd, Hernandez hit 4 in round 1.

So did he take those guys down that many times in round 1 or not? Because...you can literally look it up and he did. And then I said his takedown game can't be that bad if he's getting that many.

Like, are you being serious here? MMA isn't like a skills competition where each thing is completely graded separately and don't affect the other aspects. It's MIXED martial arts. GSP had a great TD game but wanna know something? The fact that he came up as a striker and could bust guys up standing made his TD game much better because opponents weren't only worried about his wrestling.

Fluffy has become effective with his TD game because he has the ability to constantly push for them and not wear out. Your claim was that it's only when he can gas opponents out that he can get TD's. So all those TD's in rd 1 vs Fremd and Barrriault...they were gassed in rd 1? Kopylov was gassed late in rd 1 last night?

You bet Kopylov because Fluffy was "a bjj guy with bad wrestling". How did that work out for ya? Roman keep it standing and knock Fluffy out? Or did Fluffy get him down and finish before the fight was even half over?

Anything else I can help out with, let me know.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

So did he take those guys down that many times in round 1 or not? Because...you can literally look it up and he did. And then I said his takedown game can't be that bad if he's getting that many.

Like, are you being serious here? MMA isn't like a skills competition where each thing is completely graded separately and don't affect the other aspects. It's MIXED martial arts. GSP had a great TD game but wanna know something? The fact that he came up as a striker and could bust guys up standing made his TD game much better because opponents weren't only worried about his wrestling.

Fluffy has become effective with his TD game because he has the ability to constantly push for them and not wear out. Your claim was that it's only when he can gas opponents out that he can get TD's. So all those TD's in rd 1 vs Fremd and Barrriault...they were gassed in rd 1? Kopylov was gassed late in rd 1 last night?

You bet Kopylov because Fluffy was "a bjj guy with bad wrestling". How did that work out for ya? Roman keep it standing and knock Fluffy out? Or did Fluffy get him down and finish before the fight was even half over?

Anything else I can help out with, let me know.

Lol. Your analyse is bad, but prediction is correct. About gassing out his opponents I mentioned it first... I don't see point of your referring.

 

[mkess101]

Lol. Your analyse is bad, but prediction is correct. About gassing out his opponents I mentioned it first... I don't see point of your referring.

So when he hit 7 combined takedowns in round 1 vs Barriault and Fremd, they were gassed? In round 1? Barriault who's always shown good cardio? Roman was gassed after 4 minutes last night?

LMAO, okay dude.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

So when he hit 7 combined takedowns in round 1 vs Barriault and Fremd, they were gassed? In round 1? Barriault who's always shown good cardio? Roman was gassed after 4 minutes last night?

LMAO, okay dude.

Lol this sherdog man. There are many things from a technical aspect that your brain cannot reach, firstly the quality of his opponents, secondly his takedowns statistcly is based on mat returns from which he does not fall into any specific position on the floor, his chain wrestling is not at an enviable level, his repertoire of takedowns is small. The fact that someone scores a takedown does not mean that he is a dangerous wrestler.

Kopylov ran into short notice. Hernandez showed his BJJ skills yesterday, but takedown game was pretty bad.

 

[mkess101]

Lol this sherdog man. There are many things from a technical aspect that your brain cannot reach, firstly the quality of his opponents, secondly his takedowns statistcly is based on mat returns from which he does not fall into any specific position on the floor, his chain wrestling is not at an enviable level, his repertoire of takedowns is small. The fact that someone scores a takedown does not mean that he is a dangerous wrestler.

Kopylov ran into short notice. Hernandez showed his BJJ skills yesterday, but takedown game was pretty bad.

For crying out loud. I'm in my 40's. I trained, fought, and cornered guys for over 6 years when I was younger. My brain can "reach" things just fine.

What you don't seem to grasp is that you don't need to be Chael Sanderson to be an EFFECTIVE wrestler for MMA. I'll repeat because this is important and you should let it sink in: EFFECTIVE.

When I break down fights, I'm already weighing all those factors that you seem to think are aren't taken into account. My analysis of Fluffy was purely for the matchup vs Kopylov. And since we haven't seen Kopylov face someone who can push and grind and be relentless with his wrestling like Fluffy can but we saw Duraev have success with it before he gassed...we had a base to work from. Taking into account maybe some improvements from Roman, but still completely untested vs someone who can do what Fluffy does.

So in the end, what mattered to me was (for the third time now, so you hopefully REALLY get it): can Fluffy be EFFECTIVE vs Roman with his grappling? And the answer was "yes". And he didn't need to gas him out late in the fight as you claimed. He had him down and drowning 6 minutes into it.

Perhaps you would have more success handicapping if you looked at fighting through the lens of what is effective vs just what you think is technically sound?

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

For crying out loud. I'm in my 40's. I trained, fought, and cornered guys for over 6 years when I was younger. My brain can "reach" things just fine.

What you don't seem to grasp is that you don't need to be Chael Sanderson to be an EFFECTIVE wrestler for MMA. I'll repeat because this is important and you should let it sink in: EFFECTIVE.

When I break down fights, I'm already weighing all those factors that you seem to think are aren't taken into account. My analysis of Fluffy was purely for the matchup vs Kopylov. And since we haven't seen Kopylov face someone who can push and grind and be relentless with his wrestling like Fluffy can but we saw Duraev have success with it before he gassed...we had a base to work from. Taking into account maybe some improvements from Roman, but still completely untested vs someone who can do what Fluffy does.

So in the end, what mattered to me was (for the third time now, so you hopefully REALLY get it): can Fluffy be EFFECTIVE vs Roman with his grappling? And the answer was "yes". And he didn't need to gas him out late in the fight as you claimed. He had him down and drowning 6 minutes into it.

Perhaps you would have more success handicapping if you looked at fighting through the lens of what is effective vs just what you think is technically he effectiveness of high pace and pressure has nothing to do with his takedown game. It helps him in the effectiveness of his style, but we have already mentioned that.

The effectiveness of high pace and pressure has nothing to do with his takedown game. Call spade a spade.

If you throw the ball 100 times and miss 99 times and hit once, it means that it's about persistence, not about being accuracy.

And as soon as it came to that type of argument that you were in someone's corner, they just say that you got lost in the discussion.

 

[mkess101]

The effectiveness of high pace and pressure has nothing to do with his takedown game. Call spade a spade.

If you throw the ball 100 times and miss 99 times and hit once, it means that it's about persistence, not about being accuracy.

And as soon as it came to that type of argument that you were in someone's corner, they just say that you got lost in the discussion.

The effectiveness of the pace and pressure has EVERYTHING to do with his takedown game if we're talking about how effective his wrestling can be LOL!

Isn't the entire point of handicapping to make bets to determine how EFFECTIVE someone is?? I keep repeating that because it seems as though you don't get it. You want some sort of "moral victory" because Kopylov stuffed some TD's? He still was taken down and subbed barely into round 2! Not after 13 grueling minutes where he was gassed. Early in the fight, dude.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

The effectiveness of the pace and pressure has EVERYTHING to do with his takedown game if we're talking about how effective his wrestling can be LOL!

Isn't the entire point of handicapping to make bets to determine how EFFECTIVE someone is?? I keep repeating that because it seems as though you don't get it. You want some sort of "moral victory" because Kopylov stuffed some TD's? He still was taken down and subbed barely into round 2! Not after 13 grueling minutes where he was gassed. Early in the fight, dude.

We're not arguing on the same thing. Doesn't matter.

 

[mkess101]

We're not arguing on the same thing. Doesn't matter.

Evidently not. We're in the betting subforum so I'd say my stance fits quite a bit better than whatever ambiguous thing you're trying to shoehorn in here.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Evidently not. We're in the betting subforum so I'd say my stance fits quite a bit better than whatever ambiguous thing you're trying to shoehorn in here.

Spin master.

 

[mkess101]

Spin master.

Yes, determining effectiveness in an aspect of MMA (correctly might I add) is "spin".

At this point, you don't even believe your own words LOL.