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Very true possibilities. But there is some context to the Tuivasa fight.... Gane was a headliner for France his country, and obviously could've taken Tuivasa down and done whatever or chill back and chip away to a decision, he instead got aggressive with him and paid for it. Still won the fight too. But yeah if Tuivasa can crack him, Aspinall too for sure, however I highly doubt Gane is going to go aggro like he did in that fight and Aspinall is going to have to get more clever to land.You also gotta factor in margin of error. If Tom fucks up, good chance he eats what Gane catches him with and the fight goes on. No guarantee of course (it's HW), but we've seen Tom take a decent shot from a much bigger punchers than Gane (Pavlovich).
On the flipside, if (when?) Tom lands there's a very good chance that's it. Everyone he's touched so far has crumbled. And while I don't think Gane necessarily has a glass chin, we saw Tuivasa (who has power to be fair) drop him like a sack of bricks. Good recovery by Gane (and Tai's follow up was spastic flailing), but if that's Tom dropping him I have little doubt that Gane is fucked.