Economy The great housing market crash of 2022

I think their business model is ruining the American dream for the millennials and such causing high rents and housing prices. In’it is weird though cause it seems millennials aren’t as interested in buying houses and starting families tho, so I guess things are sorting themselves out.

I wish there was a limit on how much property they could own and/or buy up in a certain amount of time to help keep prices .stable for regular buyers. As someone who rents a few condos, I can’t hate the business model I guess

Part of the problem is that housing prices have ruined the dream of homeownership for a lot of people. This imo its a catalyst for a lot of people that are just giving up.
 
I think their business model is ruining the American dream for the millennials and such causing high rents and housing prices. In’it is weird though cause it seems millennials aren’t as interested in buying houses and starting families tho, so I guess things are sorting themselves out.

I wish there was a limit on how much property they could own and/or buy up in a certain amount of time to help keep prices .stable for regular buyers. As someone who rents a few condos, I can’t hate the business model I guess

Edit just saw your other post about materials. Jesus so crazy right now. But even stuff that available the cost is insane
Back before Canada put the brakes on foreign buying a guy I know went to a condo pre-construction sale to put a downpayment on a unit for an investment property. He said there was a chinese dude there that bought 20 units.My first thought was "and this is why young people cannot get into the market."
 
Part of the problem is that housing prices have ruined the dream of homeownership for a lot of people. This imo its a catalyst for a lot of people that are just giving up.

I think they are one of the main reasons for high house prices, which is then leading to people saying fick it.


but in the hotter markets they just come with a bunch of cash and can just throw down like $15k more than the asking price in cash ready to go. Which then makes the prices go up.

My parents just moved down here and the town home they got cost more than my single family home did, cause market so inflated. Granted their house up north was paid off and they got a great price too.

can’t imagine being a buyer right now


Back before Canada put the brakes on foreign buying a guy I know went to a condo pre-construction sale to put a downpayment on a unit for an investment property. He said there was a chinese dude there that bought 20 units.My first thought was "and this is why young people cannot get into the market."

Right by university of Miami there is a few high rises they built by this mall called Dadeland. The vast majority of the owners are Chinese students who go to UM or FIU and their parents in China but them condos that they then just keep and rent when they done college there

it isn’t very capitalist of my, but I would want to limit blackstone and similar. However I do think we should limit those with CcP money from buying up houses, condos, and farmland
 
I think their business model is ruining the American dream for the millennials and such causing high rents and housing prices. In’it is weird though cause it seems millennials aren’t as interested in buying houses and starting families tho, so I guess things are sorting themselves out.

I wish there was a limit on how much property they could own and/or buy up in a certain amount of time to help keep prices .stable for regular buyers. As someone who rents a few condos, I can’t hate the business model I guess

Edit just saw your other post about materials. Jesus so crazy right now. But even stuff that available the cost is insane
You can't be serious. They aren't interested because they don't have the money. Go look at your average family that has kids and can't put food on the table. Not a good time.
 
give it another 6 months

If it didn't happen in 2022. What makes you think things will be that much will be different in 2023?

Most indicators point to more of the same. The existing loans that people have are with rates under 4% because everyone refinanced when rates were at all time lows..... those people will never sell their until interest rates come back down, which doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Builders stopped building because of high interest rates last year. Unemployment is also at all time lows, so unlikely that those people will suddenly stop being able to service those low interest debts and be forced to sell either.

Even if something unforeseen happens this year to change all of that, home prices are up about 40% since pre-pandemic levels. A 10% decline (like what happened in 2007 crash) wouldn't even bring prices back down to pre-pandemic prices.

no one is selling with a 3% rate. There are only two reasons inventory will hit the market: foreclosure or death/nursing home transfer. Yes this is generalization, you will still have people who may have to possibly move for other reasons. But overwhelmingly, if you have a 3% rate you will not sell unless the economy implodes so badly that you lose your job and cannot find another one for year(s) (which is how long it takes for a full foreclosure to happen on average in most places). 2008 was bad because the people who got those loans should have never qualified to begin with.

^ This guy gets it
 
Actually, I made this thread in May. Since June, the month after, home owners lost trillions in value and somehow this thread isn’t right? Oh but values haven’t gone down, etc? You guys retarded lmaooooo <45><45><45>




But god damn you’re a pathetic freak lmao


Still isn't a crash in 2022, Still a big fat L. im hoping you start picking stocks, i could make a killing betting against you.
 
I think their business model is ruining the American dream for the millennials and such causing high rents and housing prices. In’it is weird though cause it seems millennials aren’t as interested in buying houses and starting families tho, so I guess things are sorting themselves out.

I wish there was a limit on how much property they could own and/or buy up in a certain amount of time to help keep prices .stable for regular buyers. As someone who rents a few condos, I can’t hate the business model I guess

Edit just saw your other post about materials. Jesus so crazy right now. But even stuff that available the cost is insane

Heres something we mostly agree on.

Before the pandemic real estate investors and firms were mostly just interested in buying apartments, multi-family homes, commercial etc and staying out of the Single Family sector (for the most part).

But since the pandemic, and the low interest rates, they have been heavily targeting Single Family homes. The purpose of single family homes is supposed to be for Families to own and live in... not an investment vehicle. It feels like the way things are going, home ownership will completely shift away from the middle class by the next generation or so, and further increase wealth inequality.
 
All that would mean is that we would have more people buying up a scarce resource. We need more housing built. Developers only seem interested in luxury housing, though. They're using mainly the same types of materials but get to sell it at much higher rates. Fantastic, you built a luxury condo on the water where I will never live. Great.
Some cities have laws so that for luxury developments to get approved they have to allot a certain proportion of units for subsidized housing initiatives, I have a friend in NYC who lives in such an apartment.

Idk how I feel about that, seems insufficient for the problem at hand. Cities should build market rate public housing but my guess is right wingers would oppose it because of the "public" part and leftists would oppose for the "market rate" part.
 
Some cities have laws so that for luxury developments to get approved they have to allot a certain proportion of units for subsidized housing initiatives, I have a friend in NYC who lives in such an apartment.

Idk how I feel about that, seems insufficient for the problem at hand. Cities should build market rate public housing but my guess is right wingers would oppose it because of the "public" part and leftists would oppose for the "market rate" part.
Land developers are just as much a problem as corporations investing in single family dwellings when it comes to home price inflation.
 
Actually, I made this thread in May. Since June, the month after, home owners lost trillions in value and somehow this thread isn’t right? Oh but values haven’t gone down, etc? You guys retarded lmaooooo <45><45><45>




But god damn you’re a pathetic freak lmao


This isn't a crash lol. This is a bit of getting back to a normal after an unnecessary spike

Still a ways to go, no crash at all in sight.

From this article- we're still in the spike:
“The housing market has shed some of its value, but most homeowners will still reap big rewards from the pandemic housing boom,” says Redfin economist Chen Zhao, noting the total value of homes remains about $13 trillion higher than in February 2020—before the pandemic abruptly tanked the economy.
 
Land developers are just as much a problem as corporations investing in single family dwellings when it comes to home price inflation.
I think the main issues are excessive zoning regulations which make it hard to build anything(especially multifamily and mixed use developments) as well as NIMBYs who will protest and impede new developments.

In that environment it makes sense for developers to focus on luxury developments so as to maximize their earnings from the land they can develop. Under such circumstances trying to build affordable, multifamily units is very hard.
 
I think the main issues are excessive zoning regulations which make it hard to build anything(especially multifamily and mixed use developments) as well as NIMBYs who will protest and impede new developments.

In that environment it makes sense for developers to focus on luxury developments so as to maximize their earnings from the land they can develop. Under such circumstances trying to build affordable, multifamily units is very hard.
The government funded the suburbs after WW2 to help the Americans that wanted homes to be able to afford them and tackle the housing shortage. I will leave the white only stuff out of it because its not relevant to this discussion. IMO its time for more projects like that in America.
 
Some cities have laws so that for luxury developments to get approved they have to allot a certain proportion of units for subsidized housing initiatives, I have a friend in NYC who lives in such an apartment.

Idk how I feel about that, seems insufficient for the problem at hand. Cities should build market rate public housing but my guess is right wingers would oppose it because of the "public" part and leftists would oppose for the "market rate" part.
Also the fact that public housing is a horrible failure
 
Also the fact that public housing is a horrible failure
In the US and in other countries where public housing is just a few buildings for poor people then yeah it fails because they turn into slums but in places like Vienna where public housing is of both higher quality and quantity they attract middle class residents and their scale allows them to keep the broader housing prices of the city lower. That said its a tall task to ask a US city to not just build public housing but to build it of far higher quality and in far greater quantity than before so my bet is that any politically feasible proposal would be a half measure that just ends up creating more slums like previous public housing initiatives.
 
In the US and in other countries where public housing is just a few buildings for poor people then yeah it fails because they turn into slums but in places like Vienna where public housing is of both higher quality and quantity they attract middle class residents and their scale allows them to keep the broader housing prices of the city lower. That said its a tall task to ask a US city to not just build public housing but to build it of far higher quality and in far greater quantity than before so my bet is that any politically feasible proposal would be a half measure that just ends up creating more slums like previous public housing initiatives.
I don’t have any academic studies to back it, but I’ve heard that public housing wasn’t even bad in the first few decades of it. But they apparently had higher standards, instead of it being totally merited by being a single female with children and a very low income.
 
If it didn't happen in 2022. What makes you think things will be that much will be different in 2023?

Most indicators point to more of the same. The existing loans that people have are with rates under 4% because everyone refinanced when rates were at all time lows..... those people will never sell their until interest rates come back down, which doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Builders stopped building because of high interest rates last year. Unemployment is also at all time lows, so unlikely that those people will suddenly stop being able to service those low interest debts and be forced to sell either.

Even if something unforeseen happens this year to change all of that, home prices are up about 40% since pre-pandemic levels. A 10% decline (like what happened in 2007 crash) wouldn't even bring prices back down to pre-pandemic prices.

no one is selling with a 3% rate. There are only two reasons inventory will hit the market: foreclosure or death/nursing home transfer. Yes this is generalization, you will still have people who may have to possibly move for other reasons. But overwhelmingly, if you have a 3% rate you will not sell unless the economy implodes so badly that you lose your job and cannot find another one for year(s) (which is how long it takes for a full foreclosure to happen on average in most places). 2008 was bad because the people who got those loans should have never qualified to begin with.
Your both absolutely correct. I post on a relocation/real estate forum for my area (Dallas Fort Worth) and the amount of delusion is insane.

80% of the forum for the last 2.5 year have been ranting about our area crashing and house prices plummeting and it's never going to happen. Everyone is sitting on their low interest rate low loan amount house, the economy is strong with lots of companies relocating to the area, and there's not enough houses (especially in the $300-500k bracket) for the amount of people who want to buy in that range.

My all-time favorite was the recent prediction/hype that houses will be sitting on the market forever this spring because there will be 2x the inventory and 20% less buyers compared to 2 years ago. It's like wow instead of having 80 people trying to buy 6 houses in my neighborhood there will only be 64 people buying 12 houses all with double the interest rate ? Oh, sure these houses are going to go for bargain prices just wait :rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
At least we don't have mean tweets

lol...what would Trump's prescription have been to control inflation? More tax cuts and pressuring the Fed to keep near-zero interest rates? New trade wars to further drive up the price of raw materials? Gee, how quickly we forget how those policies that helped to drive inflation in the first place.

The Executive and Legislative branch can only control fiscal policy, which has nowhere near the affect on controlling inflation as monetary policy.
 
no one is selling with a 3% rate. There are only two reasons inventory will hit the market: foreclosure or death/nursing home transfer. Yes this is generalization, you will still have people who may have to possibly move for other reasons. But overwhelmingly, if you have a 3% rate you will not sell unless the economy implodes so badly that you lose your job and cannot find another one for year(s) (which is how long it takes for a full foreclosure to happen on average in most places). 2008 was bad because the people who got those loans should have never qualified to begin with.
Real estate investors may also sell if they think the prices will drop and buy them again when they are lower.

A notable amount of foreclosures may be coming. With inflation still being very high and the stock market lagging, I imagine a lot of people who bought a house that was barely in their price range may be struggling to afford it. Also with home prices at all time highs, property tax re-evaluations may also play a big role. I think most people who make their payments comfortably will hold on, but people who have overleveraged themselves out of housing market FOMO may have to sell or have their house foreclosed. Also if we have a decently sized recession that will have an even bigger effect on foreclosures.
 
Real estate investors may also sell if they think the prices will drop and buy them again when they are lower.

A notable amount of foreclosures may be coming. With inflation still being very high and the stock market lagging, I imagine a lot of people who bought a house that was barely in their price range may be struggling to afford it. Also with home prices at all time highs, property tax re-evaluations may also play a big role. I think most people who make their payments comfortably will hold on, but people who have overleveraged themselves out of housing market FOMO may have to sell or have their house foreclosed. Also if we have a decently sized recession that will have an even bigger effect on foreclosures.
Good analysis. Most of the hobbyist property investors in this thread dont seem to understand economic cycles.
 
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