Btw, here is a bloomberg article (it is on archive to get past the pay wall). But 20 million homes behind on utility bills.. and the price of natural gas and coal only continue to rise. And they are the main source of energy for the power grid (natural gas being 35-40%, and coal being 20-25%).
Natural gas is already up like 500% since Trump left office and the price of coal is up like 700%. These prices also contribute to inflation and increased prices, just as much as oil, if not more, since they power factories, keep grocery stores cool, among other things. These are bother
Despite talk of a “housing recession,” don’t hold your breath waiting for home prices to suddenly decline any time soon. In fact, prices are expected to grow through 2023, according to several housing forecasts.
The market does seem to be cooling, however. With higher mortgage costs, U.S. home sales are down over 20% from a year ago. And last month, the median price for an existing home in the U.S. dropped from a record high of $413,800 to $403,800, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
But considering that median home prices have soared by nearly 36% since the pandemic began, a one-month price reduction of around 2.4% can be seen as more of a market adjustment than a significant decline in value.
Housing prices are still expected to be up 11% for 2022, followed by 2% in 2023, according to NAR’s most recent forecast. This follows similar forecasts by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Zillow, which predict positive — albeit slowing — price growth in 2022 and 2023.
And despite the decelerating price growth, median home prices are still up 10.8% from a year ago, according to NAR’s data. For context, median home prices have risen by roughly 4.5% a year since 1992, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency data.
This isn’t a recession in home prices. A price decline on a nationwide basis is unlikely.
That’s because demand for homes remains strong, primarily due to strong employment numbers and an “inadequate” supply of homes.
However, for some local markets that experienced extraordinary price growth in the last couple of years — like in California — a decline in price is possible, says Yun. But “those price drops will be very short in duration,” because decreases will be viewed as “a second chance opportunity” by buyers who were previously priced out of the market.
This already seems to be happening in some real estate markets where prices surged during the pandemic. In July, San Jose home prices declined by 4.5%, Phoenix by 2.8%, San Francisco by 2.8% and Austin by 2.7%, according to the latest data provided by Zillow.
That said, “there’s nothing to suggest prices will decline in more affordable markets,” says Yun. Of course, forecasts don’t account for unforeseen events, like geopolitical conflicts or worsening supply chain issues, he adds.
It’s possible that home prices could decrease, but “with stabilizing mortgage rates, and some job creation, home prices should also stabilize,” Yun says.
With 2022 in the books for a few months, this thread deserves a revisit.
To sum up, there was definitively was no housing market crash in 2022, and in fact the average home price in the US increased about 10% in 2022. TS and many others ITT were way off on this one.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
During the 2nd half of 2022 there was a huge decline in sales due to drastic increases in mortgage rates. But this didn't translate to a significant decrease in home prices because it is largely a result of sellers not wanting to sell (since they don't want to give up their sub 4% interest rates on their current homes), which kept inventory extremely low and prevented prices from going down.
The current combination of low inventory, high prices, and high interest rates is making home affordability just about the the worst its ever been as we go into the 2023 spring home buying season.
another swing and a miss by @cottagecheesefan
I read an article recently, forgot the term they used, but the majority of American's are now paying 35% or more of their earnings to housing. I've said it a million times, and I'll say it again, but this is why I roll my eyes at economists who say we're actually doing excellent because everyone has a job. They're always working on outdated numbers, so I'll give them that.With 2022 in the books for a few months, this thread deserves a revisit.
To sum up, there was definitively was no housing market crash in 2022, and in fact the average home price in the US increased about 10% in 2022. TS and many others ITT were way off on this one.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
During the 2nd half of 2022 there was a huge decline in sales due to drastic increases in mortgage rates. But this didn't translate to a significant decrease in home prices because it is largely a result of sellers not wanting to sell (since they don't want to give up their sub 4% interest rates on their current homes), which kept inventory extremely low and prevented prices from going down.
The current combination of low inventory, high prices, and high interest rates is making home affordability just about the the worst its ever been as we go into the 2023 spring home buying season.
Actually, I made this thread in May. Since June, the month after, home owners lost trillions in value and somehow this thread isn’t right? Oh but values haven’t gone down, etc? You guys retarded lmaooooo <45><45><45>
But god damn you’re a pathetic freak lmao
no one is selling with a 3% rate. There are only two reasons inventory will hit the market: foreclosure or death/nursing home transfer. Yes this is generalization, you will still have people who may have to possibly move for other reasons. But overwhelmingly, if you have a 3% rate you will not sell unless the economy implodes so badly that you lose your job and cannot find another one for year(s) (which is how long it takes for a full foreclosure to happen on average in most places). 2008 was bad because the people who got those loans should have never qualified to begin with.A ‘housing recession’ won’t bring home prices down, economist says: Here’s why
Around my area new listings have become abysmal, and if anything halfway decent is listed, it is still gobbled up in 1-2 weeks. Current homeowners don't wants to sell because buying another place to live is too expensive, and new home construction has stopped because builder confidence in the housing market is so low.... all keeping inventory low.
Sales have declined but the low inventory is keeping prices from budging, and that doesn't look like it will change anytime soon.
the government should allow first time buyers a subsidized rate if they meet financial criteria. problem is they would probably be sued for discriminationI'm still waiting for the crash, cottage. We both live in the same city, right? Where the fuck is my cheap housing?
I'm still waiting for the crash, cottage. We both live in the same city, right? Where the fuck is my cheap housing?
All that would mean is that we would have more people buying up a scarce resource. We need more housing built. Developers only seem interested in luxury housing, though. They're using mainly the same types of materials but get to sell it at much higher rates. Fantastic, you built a luxury condo on the water where I will never live. Great.the government should allow first time buyers a subsidized rate if they meet financial criteria. problem is they would probably be sued for discrimination
All that would mean is that we would have more people buying up a scarce resource. We need more housing built. Developers only seem interested in luxury housing, though. They're using mainly the same types of materials but get to sell it at much higher rates. Fantastic, you built a luxury condo on the water where I will never live. Great.
Getting certain materials and parts is an absolute nightmare right now. Some panelboards are over a year out. On a project that is supposed to take six months that is insane.Big problem with new builds is the cost of material is sky high. I have some insiders that tell me that there is/was corruption in those industries (probably many industries outside of this one too) conspiring to keep prices higher than where they justifiably should be. Perhaps the feds should be looking into that instead of trying to burn the entire economy down to lower the price of eggs.
the government should allow first time buyers a subsidized rate if they meet financial criteria. problem is they would probably be sued for discrimination
@cottagecheesefan thoughts on Blackstone?