Economy The great housing market crash of 2022

Mentioned in another thread about how despite the cost of oil going down, the cost of energy is still sky rocketing.

cottagecheesefan said:
Btw, here is a bloomberg article (it is on archive to get past the pay wall). But 20 million homes behind on utility bills.. and the price of natural gas and coal only continue to rise. And they are the main source of energy for the power grid (natural gas being 35-40%, and coal being 20-25%).

Natural gas is already up like 500% since Trump left office and the price of coal is up like 700%. These prices also contribute to inflation and increased prices, just as much as oil, if not more, since they power factories, keep grocery stores cool, among other things. These are bother

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But this is very relevent to this thread because as I had mentioned people can't keep up with these prices, first they cut back on groceries, etc, then utilities (as seen now), and very quickly after that is rent/mortage.

I think this headline circles back to what I implied in my initial post and thread title, as part of the 2008/9 crash was mortage lenders, but here you see even Bloomberg is calling it as is



And keep in mind, just like in the GOP back to inflation worry thread, it was often pointed out how there is various tiers of lag behind. But just look at this, they already forecasting big price drops. That is based off current trends. But as people more and more skip utility and mortgage payment, this will only accelerate. Which will also snowball the headline above about lenders not making money. Why arent they making money, because people can't pay back their mortgages.



Again, another link back to 2008/9, as all these investors and banks threw money at buying new home developments, it is now turning to bust, because people cannot keep up with prices, and developers, etc, have to keep raising prices.



So now they have all these expensive new homes that they wont be able to sell. Plus all these banks jacked up the prices of houses by investing in the market, and now those same banks that lended mortages to people are going to implode. This is literally the exact same thing lol.
 
A ‘housing recession’ won’t bring home prices down, economist says: Here’s why

Despite talk of a “housing recession,” don’t hold your breath waiting for home prices to suddenly decline any time soon. In fact, prices are expected to grow through 2023, according to several housing forecasts.

The market does seem to be cooling, however. With higher mortgage costs, U.S. home sales are down over 20% from a year ago. And last month, the median price for an existing home in the U.S. dropped from a record high of $413,800 to $403,800, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).


But considering that median home prices have soared by nearly 36% since the pandemic began, a one-month price reduction of around 2.4% can be seen as more of a market adjustment than a significant decline in value.

Housing prices are still expected to be up 11% for 2022, followed by 2% in 2023, according to NAR’s most recent forecast. This follows similar forecasts by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Zillow, which predict positive — albeit slowing — price growth in 2022 and 2023.

And despite the decelerating price growth, median home prices are still up 10.8% from a year ago, according to NAR’s data. For context, median home prices have risen by roughly 4.5% a year since 1992, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency data.

This isn’t a recession in home prices. A price decline on a nationwide basis is unlikely.


That’s because demand for homes remains strong, primarily due to strong employment numbers and an “inadequate” supply of homes.

However, for some local markets that experienced extraordinary price growth in the last couple of years — like in California — a decline in price is possible, says Yun. But “those price drops will be very short in duration,” because decreases will be viewed as “a second chance opportunity” by buyers who were previously priced out of the market.

This already seems to be happening in some real estate markets where prices surged during the pandemic. In July, San Jose home prices declined by 4.5%, Phoenix by 2.8%, San Francisco by 2.8% and Austin by 2.7%, according to the latest data provided by Zillow.

That said, “there’s nothing to suggest prices will decline in more affordable markets,” says Yun. Of course, forecasts don’t account for unforeseen events, like geopolitical conflicts or worsening supply chain issues, he adds.

It’s possible that home prices could decrease, but “with stabilizing mortgage rates, and some job creation, home prices should also stabilize,” Yun says.
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Around my area new listings have become abysmal, and if anything halfway decent is listed, it is still gobbled up in 1-2 weeks. Current homeowners don't wants to sell because buying another place to live is too expensive, and new home construction has stopped because builder confidence in the housing market is so low.... all keeping inventory low.

Sales have declined but the low inventory is keeping prices from budging, and that doesn't look like it will change anytime soon.
 
With 2022 in the books for a few months, this thread deserves a revisit.

To sum up, there was definitively was no housing market crash in 2022, and in fact the average home price in the US increased about 10% in 2022. TS and many others ITT were way off on this one.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

During the 2nd half of 2022 there was a huge decline in sales due to drastic increases in mortgage rates. But this didn't translate to a significant decrease in home prices because it is largely a result of sellers not wanting to sell (since they don't want to give up their sub 4% interest rates on their current homes), which kept inventory extremely low and prevented prices from going down.
The current combination of low inventory, high prices, and high interest rates is making home affordability just about the the worst its ever been as we go into the 2023 spring home buying season.
 
MeatheadMike said:
With 2022 in the books for a few months, this thread deserves a revisit.

To sum up, there was definitively was no housing market crash in 2022, and in fact the average home price in the US increased about 10% in 2022. TS and many others ITT were way off on this one.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

During the 2nd half of 2022 there was a huge decline in sales due to drastic increases in mortgage rates. But this didn't translate to a significant decrease in home prices because it is largely a result of sellers not wanting to sell (since they don't want to give up their sub 4% interest rates on their current homes), which kept inventory extremely low and prevented prices from going down.
The current combination of low inventory, high prices, and high interest rates is making home affordability just about the the worst its ever been as we go into the 2023 spring home buying season.
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give it another 6 months
 
AWilder said:
another swing and a miss by @cottagecheesefan
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Actually, I made this thread in May. Since June, the month after, home owners lost trillions in value and somehow this thread isn’t right? Oh but values haven’t gone down, etc? You guys retarded lmaooooo <45><45><45>




But god damn you’re a pathetic freak lmao
 
Way too much cash captured in too few hands. I don't think people realized how for a long time, home sellers were selling to buyers with young families taking loans as a matter of moral preference over cash buyers. Higher rates exposed that sellers didn't have to be doing that. Cash is still king.
 
MeatheadMike said:
With 2022 in the books for a few months, this thread deserves a revisit.

To sum up, there was definitively was no housing market crash in 2022, and in fact the average home price in the US increased about 10% in 2022. TS and many others ITT were way off on this one.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

During the 2nd half of 2022 there was a huge decline in sales due to drastic increases in mortgage rates. But this didn't translate to a significant decrease in home prices because it is largely a result of sellers not wanting to sell (since they don't want to give up their sub 4% interest rates on their current homes), which kept inventory extremely low and prevented prices from going down.
The current combination of low inventory, high prices, and high interest rates is making home affordability just about the the worst its ever been as we go into the 2023 spring home buying season.
Click to expand...
I read an article recently, forgot the term they used, but the majority of American's are now paying 35% or more of their earnings to housing. I've said it a million times, and I'll say it again, but this is why I roll my eyes at economists who say we're actually doing excellent because everyone has a job. They're always working on outdated numbers, so I'll give them that.
 
cottagecheesefan said:
Actually, I made this thread in May. Since June, the month after, home owners lost trillions in value and somehow this thread isn’t right? Oh but values haven’t gone down, etc? You guys retarded lmaooooo <45><45><45>




But god damn you’re a pathetic freak lmao
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I'm still waiting for the crash, cottage. We both live in the same city, right? Where the fuck is my cheap housing?
 
MeatheadMike said:
A ‘housing recession’ won’t bring home prices down, economist says: Here’s why



Around my area new listings have become abysmal, and if anything halfway decent is listed, it is still gobbled up in 1-2 weeks. Current homeowners don't wants to sell because buying another place to live is too expensive, and new home construction has stopped because builder confidence in the housing market is so low.... all keeping inventory low.

Sales have declined but the low inventory is keeping prices from budging, and that doesn't look like it will change anytime soon.
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no one is selling with a 3% rate. There are only two reasons inventory will hit the market: foreclosure or death/nursing home transfer. Yes this is generalization, you will still have people who may have to possibly move for other reasons. But overwhelmingly, if you have a 3% rate you will not sell unless the economy implodes so badly that you lose your job and cannot find another one for year(s) (which is how long it takes for a full foreclosure to happen on average in most places). 2008 was bad because the people who got those loans should have never qualified to begin with.
 
Yehudim said:
I'm still waiting for the crash, cottage. We both live in the same city, right? Where the fuck is my cheap housing?
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the government should allow first time buyers a subsidized rate if they meet financial criteria. problem is they would probably be sued for discrimination
 
ineverpost said:
the government should allow first time buyers a subsidized rate if they meet financial criteria. problem is they would probably be sued for discrimination
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All that would mean is that we would have more people buying up a scarce resource. We need more housing built. Developers only seem interested in luxury housing, though. They're using mainly the same types of materials but get to sell it at much higher rates. Fantastic, you built a luxury condo on the water where I will never live. Great.
 
Yehudim said:
All that would mean is that we would have more people buying up a scarce resource. We need more housing built. Developers only seem interested in luxury housing, though. They're using mainly the same types of materials but get to sell it at much higher rates. Fantastic, you built a luxury condo on the water where I will never live. Great.
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Big problem with new builds is the cost of material is sky high. I have some insiders that tell me that there is/was corruption in those industries (probably many industries outside of this one too) conspiring to keep prices higher than where they justifiably should be. Perhaps the feds should be looking into that instead of trying to burn the entire economy down to lower the price of eggs.
 
ineverpost said:
Big problem with new builds is the cost of material is sky high. I have some insiders that tell me that there is/was corruption in those industries (probably many industries outside of this one too) conspiring to keep prices higher than where they justifiably should be. Perhaps the feds should be looking into that instead of trying to burn the entire economy down to lower the price of eggs.
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Getting certain materials and parts is an absolute nightmare right now. Some panelboards are over a year out. On a project that is supposed to take six months that is insane.
 
LMP said:
@cottagecheesefan thoughts on Blackstone?
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I think their business model is ruining the American dream for the millennials and such causing high rents and housing prices. In’it is weird though cause it seems millennials aren’t as interested in buying houses and starting families tho, so I guess things are sorting themselves out.

I wish there was a limit on how much property they could own and/or buy up in a certain amount of time to help keep prices .stable for regular buyers. As someone who rents a few condos, I can’t hate the business model I guess

Edit just saw your other post about materials. Jesus so crazy right now. But even stuff that available the cost is insane
 
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