Economy Do you think the housing market is going to crash soon(ish)?

[therealdope]

Nope, at least not in Canada. The demand outweighs the supply.

Many are hoping for a housing maket crash but it simply won't happen. Can't afford a place? Well a family of 9 from India with 6 of them having full time jobs can easily afford it whether its a condo, townhouse or house.

Not happening.

You are high. There are segments of the market in some areas of Canada that are already down 15-20%
- no foreign buying
- wage stagnation
- shut-off of insane immigration policies
- trade war

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-wont-recover-peak-until-2029-bmo/

I can't imagine what the effect on prices will be with the BC land claims cluster fuck.

 

[nostradumbass]

Hell no!
There's a housing affordability crisis happening and it's been in the news since January 2024.

People can't afford loans because everyone's income is being squeezed by high inflation. When health insurance premiums skyrocket in 2026, housing will be completely out of reach for 90% of Americans.

Lol at "90% of Americans". 65% already own their homes, and only 7% were even on obamacare in the first place, and wages are rising faster than inflation.

 

[MMA IAN]

Australia only has 2 states left where the median house price is under 1 million dollars. Our government has outright said 'we don't want house prices to fall'. I think we will see 40 and 50 year mortgages become normalised and parents will pass a mortgage onto their kids.

 

[Seano]

No. Too much demand, not enough supply.

Seems like your friends are poor.

I don't know anybody getting foreclosed.

I actually know quite a few people who are selling because the tax burden has become too high. People that have lived in their homes for decades, even multiple generations in some cases.

 

[Stoic1]

No. Too much demand, not enough supply.

I actually know quite a few people who are selling because the tax burden has become too high. People that have lived in their homes for decades, even multiple generations in some cases.

I can sympathize.

I bought a house in 2015. Sold it 2019. My property taxes were the same as my mortgage. But my taxes stayed flat. BTW, sold property for $350,000 its currently valued at $522,900 and has been at that price for 3 years.

https://www.redfin.com/VT/Randolph/529-Harlow-Hill-Rd-05060/home/63510269

ETA: correction $614,000 on another site

The housing problem set isn't just home price, interest rates, and/or property taxes. It's the compound effect of *ALL* of them combined that seems to have made it unaffordable. I can't agree with someone arguing that any one particular facet is pricing people out.

BTW I see private equity firms buying residential homes as one of the biggest drivers - I have no solutions.

 

[Rygu]

You are high. There are segments of the market in some areas of Canada that are already down 15-20%
- no foreign buying
- wage stagnation
- shut-off of insane immigration policies
- trade war

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-wont-recover-peak-until-2029-bmo/

I can't imagine what the effect on prices will be with the BC land claims cluster fuck.

Ok well yes 400 sq foot condos in Vancouver that were 1.2m im sure can be found now for 1m.

 

[lowlife]

I doubt it. Supply is still low, and consensus from what I can tell is the Fed will be turning on the money printer soon. I can't see asset prices going down anytime soon and if they do go down substantialy a lot of people including the big corporations that have been buying up are going to be in trouble. I think a dip is the best we can expect with prices likely to start going up again in a year or two. This is all speculation of course.

 

[plataoplombo]

Im probably only one in war room who lives in a country where property values are going down lol

You're in Finland right?

 

[plataoplombo]

Maybe a cool down in prices but not a crash. There's too many people wanting to buy a house.

 

[Cole train]

You're in Finland right?

Yup and over half of property values in country are going down, people cant break even when selling

 

[evansusmc2]

Owning 4 homes, I know a thing or two about this. Don't tack on a mortgage if you don't have steady income.

 

[560ti]

How would it crash? People are still desperate to buy

If prices drop 20k there will be a rush of buyers. It won’t crash, maybe just drop a couple percent along with the rest of economy but that’s not a crash

Demand outweighs supply by a wide margin. Thats why prices have shot up so much recently

Plus a major issue with the last crash was most people owed more on the house than what it was actually worth so it screwed them and the banks over.

That's the complete opposite of now. My area isn't even super bougie yet anyone who bought pre 2020 (which would be like 85% of the houses) even with a 10-15% drop in price would all have at least 100k in equity.

That's a completely different than foreclosing on your house and having zero money.

 

[Starck]

Depends where you are. My properties in China are well down in market value from five years ago.

 

[plataoplombo]

Yup and over half of property values in country are going down, people cant break even when selling

Wow, that's the only place that I've heard where it's going down. What's the reason and what are average prices for a house/condo in a big city?

 

[aerius]

The housing market in North America is massively overpriced and long overdue for a crash. When it happens and what sets it off is anyone's guess, I thought it would've happened by now but as the saying goes, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

 

[Crazy Source]

No. Too much demand, not enough supply.

I actually know quite a few people who are selling because the tax burden has become too high. People that have lived in their homes for decades, even multiple generations in some cases.

That breaks my heart. A couple can't grow old in their home because of the insurance and tax. The American dream is dead.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Plus a major issue with the last crash was most people owed more on the house than what it was actually worth so it screwed them and the banks over.

That's the complete opposite of now. My area isn't even super bougie yet anyone who bought pre 2020 (which would be like 85% of the houses) even with a 10-15% drop in price would all have at least 100k in equity.

That's a completely different than foreclosing on your house and having zero money.

Exactly. I didn’t want to go straight to it, as I truly feel bad for someone in a position that lost a job or had employment stagnant and can’t afford the house payment that they once could and that’s the family home. But if they bought around 2018 when they sell that’s at least 100k they get to stick in an HYSA until they decide what to do with it. Probably closer to 200k.

That’s at least 3 years rent covered to buy time to figure out next steps. It still really sucks and I’m not dismissing it, but it’s not suddenly being homeless. It’s being forced to downsize while getting a little parachute to make the landing easier.

One of the reasons individual affordable home ownership is so nice but that’s being blocked by a lack of supply while demand still chances it for a number of reasons.

 

[Osculater]

They should pray hard that they receive those $2000 tariff checks that Trump promised to send out

 

[Cole train]

Wow, that's the only place that I've heard where it's going down. What's the reason and what are average prices for a house/condo in a big city?

There is literally one "big city" in country which has one million population lol

Around 200k for apartment at cheapest last time i looked, you could buy a full house in some villages for 20k lol

 

[plataoplombo]

There is literally one "big city" in country which has one million population lol

Around 200k for apartment at cheapest last time i looked, you could buy a full house in some villages for 20k lol

Why do you think prices are falling?